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Gage Bridgford analyzes the ADP of running backs Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette to determine which RB is the better draft value for 2020 fantasy football leagues.
Redraft season is on, and every round you have to make decisions between one player or another as to who you’ll be drafting to your roster. Some decisions are easier like choosing Saquon Barkley over someone like Joe Mixon. Today, we’re looking at a decision that’s going to cause a bit more stress than that. We’re debating between two guys that would be your second or third running backs in Jacksonville Jaguars’ Leonard Fournette and Atlanta Falcons’ Todd Gurley.
If you’re in the camp of Gurley, you’re banking on him returning to his 2017 form that saw him lead the NFL in fantasy points by a healthy margin. He led all running backs by 42 points that season. Last season, despite running behind a patchwork offensive line he rode solid touchdown production to an RB14 finish. In Atlanta, without any real competition to his touches, he has a good path towards an RB1 season.
On the other side, you have Fournette who finished as RB7 along with experiencing his most efficient running season to date. Combine that efficiency with his explosion of receiving production, you have a formula for getting an RB1 at a supreme discount. Which one of these guys should you be relying on this year? That’s what we’re getting into today.
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The Case for Gurley
For dynasty, it’s likely that Gurley’s value is shot. He just turned 26 years old, but his knee has gotten to the point that he can’t be looked at as more than a one season at a time option. For 2020, however, he is in a perfect situation to recapture a lot of the value that he has lost over the last two years. He’s playing indoors, in an offense that has enough passing weapons to spread the field behind an offensive line that’s better than the one he’s been running behind the last two seasons.
When he was given the opportunity, he was a decent fantasy back. In weeks where he got at least 15 rushing attempts, he averaged just under 17 points per game. That would have been good enough for 10th leaguewide. His carries per game also dramatically increased. In those games, he averaged over 20 rushing attempts per game compared to just over 11 carries in the other nine games.
The Atlanta Falcons’ running back room currently features Gurley, Brian Hill Ito Smith, and Qadree Ollison. Those other three tallied up 122 carries last season while Gurley had 223 by himself. The three of them have just $200k more than him in combined salary this year. He’s going to be the lead back without question as long as he’s healthy.
His ADP is steadily following over the last month. You’re getting him for the 3.07 right now which puts him behind guys like Le’Veon Bell and James Conner, and he outscored both of those guys last season. Even if Gurley doesn’t get all of his efficiency back, he will be a reliable producer thanks to his volume he should receive.
The Case for Fournette
The Jaguars have made it abundantly clear that they plan to move on from him as soon as his fourth season is up. They declined his fifth-year option, and they’ve made no attempts to smooth over any of the negativity that might have built up over the last few seasons. Despite that, he still figures to be a major part of their offense in the 2020 season. He was an RB1 last season, and he can do it again next year.
Fournette averaged a career-best 4.3 yards per carry last season on 265 carries. He also had 76 receptions which were more than he had in his first two seasons combined. The only reason he didn’t finish higher among running backs was because of his lack of touchdown production. He scored just three touchdowns on 341 touches which was one touchdown every 113.7 touches compared to once every 28.1 touches during his first two seasons. Natural regression should come.
Fournette is a volume runner that excels late into games when his bruising running style wears opponents down. Similar to Gurley, his production increased significantly when he got at least 15 carries last season, but his was even more dramatic. He averaged 69 more yards per game on the ground, and he increased his PPR points per game by 10 on those occasions. When given the ball, he was productive with it.
In redraft, the long-term outlook for a player goes out the window. Fournette has no real competition for carries. His receiving workload might take a hit due to the presence of Chris Thompson, but his touchdown scoring should balance that out. Fournette, when healthy and fully utilized, is one of the more productive backs in the league. At his discount, with fewer health concerns, it makes a ton of sense to add him to your rotation.
The Verdict
Fournette and Gurley have an ADP that is separated by just 2 spots. Gurley is being drafted, on average, with the 3.07 pick, while Fournette is going with the 3.09. Both players have little competition in their backfield, and they don’t have a tremendous long-term outlook. However, they do both have a good path to production in 2020.
My selection would be Fournette over Gurley. His ankle issues seemed to have subsided for the most part after bothering him earlier in his career, and he showed last year he can be a better pass catcher. If his touch totals stay close to what they were last year with some positive touchdown regression, he has sneaky top-five running back potential.
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