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Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 21st presents a big slate of 14 games to choose from. We can look to attack the Phillies at Braves and Twins at Royals.
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Phillies @ Braves: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Aaron Nola more than 5.5 strikeouts and Max Fried more than 4.5 strikeouts
Simply put, the total here is too low for Aaron Nola. It should likely be at least 6.5 and perhaps even 7.5. He has eclipsed the six strikeout total in every single start this season and now he faces a Braves team that struggles vs. right-handed pitching. The Braves currently rank fifth-worst in baseball with a 26.1% K rate vs righties. This is a great number to get on Nola.
Max Fried's number of 4.5 is a little tighter, but he is the Braves horse and will have plenty of opportunities to reach this total. He has reached this total in four of his five starts this season. He has also already faced these Phillies in 2020 and managed to post six strikeouts in the contest.
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More or Less Contest: Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases
Bryce Harper more than 1.5 total bases: Harper has been crushing left-handed pitching to start the season as noted by his 1.472 OPS across his first 18 AB. He has also reached this total in seven of his last 10 games and is 7/23 with a double and two HR in the last seven days. Add in the fact that he is 3/10 with two bombs off Fried in his career and you have a solid prop.
Twins @ Royals: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Jake Odorizzi less than 5.5 strikeouts and Danny Duffy more than 4.5 strikeouts
Jake Odorizzi is capable of achieving this total as he struck out six Royals in his last start and the Royals rank 10th-highest in the league with a K rate of 25.2% vs. right-handers, but I don't feel comfortable betting the more than here. This will be the third time the Royals have seen Odorizzi since August 8th, and that can't work in the pitcher's favor.
Danny Duffy has started strong in 2020 by striking out 28 batters across his first 25 innings. This includes a dominant performance against the Twins last week in which he struck out eight. While I do not like the fact that the Twins will be seeing him so soon after the previous meeting, the total is set low enough that I think he can achieve it. The Twins are only posting 85 wRC+ vs. southpaws, so Duffy should be able to last long enough in this one to get to five as well.
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