RADIO
Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for August 20th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, core 4, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Thursday, August 20th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/20
- New York Islanders (EVEN) vs. Washington Capitals (-120)
- Dallas Stars (-130) vs. Calgary Flames (+110)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 13.75 |
| Calgary | 5 | 15 | 21 | 16 | 8.75 |
| Dallas | 17 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 18.25 |
| Washington | 14 | 20 | 4 | 24 | 17.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchups | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Dallas | 14 | 10 |
| Calgary | 3 | 17 |
| New York | 14 | 3 |
| Washington | 7 | 23 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Mathew Barzal ($6,800 DK/ $6,500 FD)
The Caps have struggled to handle the full depth of the Islanders and Mathew Barzal has taken advantage of favorable mismatches when he has been on the ice. He has produced four points in four games so far throughout the series and has scored goals in back-to-back games.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Evgeny Kuznetsov ($5,700 DK/ $7,500 FD)
- Tyler Seguin ($6,400 DK/ $7,300 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Alex Ovechkin ($8,500 DK/ $8,700 FD)
We saw a vintage Ovechkin performance last game as he recorded two goals on four shots in a must-win scenario. With the series on the line and another must-win scenario for the Caps, Washington will need their leader to have strong performances each game moving forward. Ovechkin is a must in cash games but will also see increased ownership in tournaments due to the size of the slate so fade at your own risk!
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Anders Lee ($6,200 DK/ $7,100 FD)
- Johnny Gaudreau ($6,300 DK/ $7,900 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: John Klingberg ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)
Klingberg has played very well from a fantasy perspective throughout this series against the Flames. He has scored double-digit DK points in four of the last five games played and has recorded six points in his most recent four-game stretch. He has been extremely active on the offensive end as he has taken 14 shots on goal over his last three games and is averaging over 23 minutes of ice-time against the Flames. Klingberg is priced reasonably well on both sides and is viable in all formats.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- John Carlson ($6,700 DK/ $6,600 FD)
- Ryan Pulock ($5,800 DK/ $5,100 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Anton Khudobin ($8,100 DK/ $8,600 FD)
With it being a short slate, Khudobin stands out to be one of the better options for both cash games and tournaments. He has won two straight games against the Flames and is allowing 2.5 goals scored over that stretch. The one thing that is enticing is that the shot volume for Calgary has gone up as he has seen 69 shots on goal which only helps from a fantasy perspective. Dallas has a chance to close out the series and if they are able to get the win, part of it will be due to Khudobin having a strong outing in net.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Joe Pavelski ($4,800 DK/ $5,400 FD)
- Sam Bennett ($3,800 DK/ $4,300 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Roope Hintz ($3,900 DK/ $4,900 FD)
- Dillon Dube ($3,400 DK/ $3,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Noah Hanifan ($3,900 DK/ $3,800 FD)
- Jamie Oleksiak ($3,200 DK/ $3,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Cam Talbot ($7,300 DK/ $8,000 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Since tonight is only a two-game slate, we will have to get different with our tournament lineup builds. Based on what we have seen so far, the Capitals and Islanders can both put up points which leads me to believe this could be an opportunity where we look to game-stack using these teams. The Caps have struggled defensively when they have been considered the home team as the Islanders have produced a 4.5 goal per game average in four games played when Washington had the line matching advantage. Over that four-game span where Washington was the home team, the game total hit the over and they combined to average seven goals scored per game so there is some credence to looking to stack this game on a short slate. From the New York Islander side of things, their top two lines look to both be in very good spots as they have produced strong corsi numbers throughout the series thus far and have produced 10 high-danger scoring chances in two games while they have been considered the away team. Washington will rely heavily on its top line which means Ovechkin and company should be the line to target from the Caps perspective.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: DAL (L1, L2). CGY (L3, PP1)
