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Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Northern Trust
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (72-37-8), netting over 42 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Head-To-Head Selection
Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie
Reasons I Liked the Play:
My math has this grading out at nearly -135 in favor of Ryan Palmer, giving us a four percent edge in terms of implied probability. Palmer hasn't been immune to his fair share of erratic results, but it is Reavie that looks on the shaky side of things after missing his two previous cuts and failing to come inside the top-60 at TPC Boston since 2016.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Palmer hasn't always been someone I've been able to pinpoint with my recommendations at RotoBaller (3-2-1) record over six plays, and I do worry that Chez Reavie is a better statistical fit than my math may indicate.
0.80 Units to Win 0.70
Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley
Reasons I Liked the Play:
While the general consensus around Byeong Hun An is that his volatility makes him a tough player to get behind in the head-to-head market, I see this as an opportunity to grab the 28-year-old in a territory below his skillset. Hun An has quietly put together back-to-back top-22 results at the WGC and PGA Championship and looks like a natural fit to keep that momentum rolling in Boston.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
I hate to say it, but I really liked what I saw from Russell Henley at the Wyndham Championship. My model doesn't seem to be in agreement with my eye-test, but Henley looked magnificent en route to gaining a total of 7.1 strokes tee to green. TPC Boston is a more difficult venue that will test some of his deficiencies, but there is no denying that the American looks to have turned his game around recently. I have this properly priced at -135 - once again giving us a smidge below a five percent edge.
0.77 Units to Win 0.70
Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson
Reasons I Liked the Play:
I think people are underestimating just how much skill off the tee you are going to need to compete during the first leg of the FedExCup playoffs. TPC Boston is a venue that has tree-lined fairways that can potentially come into play, but distance is going to far outweigh accuracy because of the overall open nature of the layout. Webb Simpson has shown himself to be more volatile so far in 2020, which has allowed him to find the winner's circle twice, but it hasn't been all sunshine and roses with two missed cuts over his previous seven events.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
It didn't miss by much. Simpson has failed to finish inside the top-40 in his past four showings at the venue, and I am still not fully writing off the supposed rib injury that he took into the Wyndham Championship. TPC Boston will test him substantially more off the tee, and I am interested to see if any negative effects take place along the way. There is some humor in talking about a potential injury of an opponent of Jason Day, but this isn't my favorite spot for the American.
0.74 Units to Win 0.70
Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)
Jon Rahm (+100) - 0.75 to Win 0.75
There are a few things that have enhanced Jon Rahm in my model and made him a profitable wager to back at +100. For starters, the reduced nature of the field does subtract around 30 additional golfers that would take up some portion of a percentage in making the top-20, and it doesn't hurt matters that Rahm is grading out for me to be the most steady option of anyone in the field. We have seen him perform admirably at difficult tests in the past, and his total driving skillset should be rewarded handsomely at the first FedExCup stop.
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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (12-10-3)
0.88 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth | .90 Units to Win 0.62 | T14 (-16) | T68 (-4) | Win | 0.62 |
| Travelers Championship | Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel | 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (-2) | MC (-2) | Push | 0 |
| Rocket Mortgage | Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk | 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 | T12 (-14) | T21 (-13) | Win | 1.17 |
| Workday | Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+14) | T39 (-4) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 | MC (+1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka | 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -1.15 |
| 3M Open | Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab | 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 | T41 (-9) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.15 |
| PGA Championship | Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed | 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 | T13 (-7) | T13 (-7) | Push | 0 |
| Wyndham Championship | Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T9 (-16) | T59 (-5) | WIn | 1 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
18-18-0 (+2.58 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Genesis Invitational | Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| WGC Mexico | Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Honda Classic | Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Arnold Palmer | Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Arnold Palmer | Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Arnold Palmer | Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Charles Schwab | Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
| RBC Heritage | Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 | MC (+6) | MC (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Memorial | Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T13 (+1) | Loss | -1 |
| Memorial | Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T54 (+9( | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Memorial | Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners | 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -0.88 |
| Memorial | Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (+5) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -1.1 |
| 3M Open | Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman | 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 | T62 (-3) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.5 |
| 3M Open | Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -0.7 |
| 3M Open | Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (E) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston | 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 | T9 (-16) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas | 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk | 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | T51 (-6) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson | 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (+2) | T3 (-18) | Loss | -0.65 |
2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Dustin Johnson | Travelers Championship | 30 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Abraham Ancer | RBC Heritage | 125 | 2 |
| Billy Horschel | Wyndham Championship | 33 | 2 |
| Max Homa | 3M Open | 80 | 3 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Adam Hadwin | Rocket Mortgage | 70 | 4 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Tony Finau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Jason Day | PGA Championship | 66 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | RBC Heritage | 200 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Xander Schauffele | WGC-St.Jude | 22 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Maverick McNealy | Rocket Mortgage | 100 | 8 |
| Tony Finau | Memorial | 66 | 8 |
| Patrick Reed | Wyndham Championship | 16 | 9 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
| Xander Schauffele | PGA Championship | 35 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI
2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI
2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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