Horse For The Course: PGA DFS Course History - The Northern Trust

Spencer Aguiar's under-the-radar DraftKings PGA DFS picks for the 2020 Northern Trust. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Welcome back PGA family, and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! I will be taking over for Joe as a one-week fill in and will do my best to keep this article at the same quality level that you have become accustomed to getting from him.

For those expecting to tune in to see what Joe has written, he did jot down some great thoughts under the 'Northern Trust Overview' and 'The Course: TPC Boston' sections. I agree with his overall sentiment about how the venue will be playing this week and would add that long irons from over 175 yards will be a major factor in deciding the winner, as nearly 47% of all approach shots come from this distance.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

The Northern Trust Overview

After something of a "sandwich game" last week at the Wyndham, we get back to serious business with serious players this week for the first event of the PGA Tour Playoffs at TPC Boston. It's been a long and winding road this season, but the standing top-125 players on the PGA Tour are in the field for The Northern Trust. One notable name is Tiger Woods, who will try to improve on an underwhelming outing at the PGA Championship. The Big Cat will be joined by golf's elite, including new major champion Collin Morikawa and former major winners like Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, and Brooks Koepka.

This week provides something of a complicated week from a course history perspective, as this will be the first time The Northern Trust will be played at TPC Boston. However, the New England track has hosted other PGA Tour events, with the Dell Technologies and Deutsche Bank Championships being hosted by TPC Boston from 2012 thru 2018. We'll basically throw past results from the event titled The Northern Trust out the window and focus on more recent results from the Dell and Deutsche Bank events that we're held on this course. I know...it's kinda confusing, but we'll work through it! Let's tee it up!

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The Course: TPC Boston

Par 71 - 7, Yards, Greens: Bent 

This Arnold Palmer design is one of the great young courses in America. TPC Boston opened in 2002 but has been under a fairly continuous redesign by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon since 2005. Hanse and Faxon have created a distinct New England vibe at TPC Boston. There are multiple bunkers across the course, but TPC Boston is perhaps most famous for the many fairway bunkers that make tee shots a challenging prospect, including a couple of holes that have bunkers in the middle of the fairway! Distance will play a factor, as two of the three Par-5's are very gettable. Ball striking will be important, as it seemingly is every week on the PGA Tour. Players will be putting on bentgrass greens at TPC Boston that are notoriously fast. Strokes Gained: Approach has been a key ingredient for success in the past.

Recent Champions & Winning Scores (TPC Boston)

• 2019: N/A
• 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-16) - Dell Technologies Championship
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-17) - Dell Technologies Championship
• 2016: Rory McIlroy (-15) - Deutsche Bank Championship
• 2015: Rickie Fowler (-15) - Deutsche Bank Championship

The Horse

Jason Day

DraftKings: $9,300
Notable Course History: T25 ('17), T15 ('16), T12 ('15), T7 ('14), T13 ('13), T3 ('11) and T2 ('10)

I mean, did you guys really expect me to write an article and not cover Jason Day as my main 'Horse?' The Aussie has done just about everything but win over the past 10 years at this venue, posting eight top-25s over that time frame, including nearly taking down the contest in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011.

I realize 10 years might be an eternity ago for Day, who struggled for nearly the past two seasons, but the 34th-ranked player in the world has found magic as of late - recording four straight top-seven results since the Workday Charity Open.

Day ranks third in my model when it comes to sand save percentage and is also inside the top-five in strokes gained around the green, strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds and strokes gained on lightning-quick Bentgrass greens. Harding Park is a decent corollary course for what to expect this weekend, and it doesn't hurt matters that Day nearly took down the PGA Championship the last time we saw him in action.

The Ponies

Bryson DeChambeau

DraftKings: $11,100
Notable Course History: 1st ('18), T30 ('17)

It is difficult to gauge Bryson's DeChambeau past history because of his newly-built frame. The American is not quite the same player as he was during his 2018 victory at TPC Boston, but it doesn't mean that the same general principles won't still apply for the six-time PGA Tour winner.

DeChambeau doesn't get enough credit for his course awareness at difficult tests, and the narrative has quickly become flawed because of a few questionable decisions that he has made recently out of challenging lies. It is one of those things where we can't have it both ways of him being golf's mad scientist and also incapable of using vital information properly. Yes, DeChambeau is always going to try and bludgeon a course when possible, but my point remains the same that he isn't as loosey-goosey off the tee as it may appear.

I do worry about the 26-year-old slightly anytime he gets a track that requires short iron prowess, but TPC Boston is not that test - requiring players to hit nearly half their shots from outside of 175 yards. DeChambeau ranks inside the top-11 in my model from both 175-200 yards and 200-plus yards, and I'd expect we see him in contention late on Sunday.

Jon Rahm

DraftKings: $10,000
Notable Course History: T4 ('17)

We don't have a ton to go on when it comes to Jon Rahm's course history at TPC Boston, but a share of fourth in 2017 is a pretty good indicator that the venue should suit his game. Rahm has been on record in the past that he likes traditional golf courses that have trees that line the fairways, and he will get just that this week at a location that will have issues galore if you miss the short grass.

Rahm's 13th place showing at the PGA Championship probably isn't getting enough credit throughout the industry when you take into account nine of the top-12 players above him all played in the morning wave on Thursday and only Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey and Cameron Champ finished above him from the afternoon slot. It is a small factor in the grand scheme of things, but one could argue that his play was better than his share of 13th might say on paper.

There is enough to like from his result here in 2017 to make him a part of the article, and the majority of his issues from his 43rd place finish last season came in round one when he fired a 73 on Thursday. Rahm is one of the more steady players on tour, and his ability to putt on fast Bent greens should make him a threat for the title.

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Paul Casey

DraftKings: $8,500
Notable Course History: T4 ('17), 2nd ('16)

I'm not a big Paul Casey guy in general, but if we are looking at TPC Boston as a potential corollary to Harding Park, there is a ton to like about him for the week.

Outside of Casey's second-place showing at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, he also has provided two top-four results at this week's venue in the last three years - highlighted by his near-miss to Rory McIlroy in 2016.

Casey ranks third in my model in strokes gained off the tee + approach and is also inside the top-10 in par-four efficiency between 400-500 yards. The 43-year-old is never an option I love in GPPs because of his lack of perceived win equity, but he does seem fairly priced in this spot at $8,500.

Justin Rose

DraftKings: $8,000
Notable Course History: 2nd ('18), T10 ('17),

This narrative you are going to hear all week of Justin Rose being a standout at TPC Boston is true to an extent after providing two consecutive top-10 results in his previous two attempts, but there is an ugly side to his record where he has only yielded one additional top-50 in his other seven tries since 2009.

I'm willing to overlook the negative outputs in the past because of his recent course history, but it is important to note that extreme volatility could be there for the Englishman in Boston - especially when you consider the fact that he has posted three top-14 results to go along with four missed cuts since the restart.

Rose's nature of solid bunker play and par-four scoring does make him someone worth considering for GPP contests, but the 40-year-old doesn't provide the typical steady output you would expect from your standard 'Horse.'

Gary Woodland

DraftKings: $7,800
Notable Course History: T18 ('117), T15 ('16), T12 ('15)

If you are looking for safety, Gary Woodland has been a staple of that at TPC Boston. The American has not finished out of 30th place since 2014, although he has failed to crack the top-10 during his run.

For me, Woodland is usually a play I like using as a cash-game option when he is priced under $8,000 on DraftKings, and his overall level of consistency should shine through once again at the Northern Trust.

Abraham Ancer

DraftKings: $7,800
Notable Course History: T7 ('18)

In his only attempt at TPC Boston in 2018, Abraham Ancer had the overnight lead by one-shot over Bryson DeChambeau and Tyrrell Hatton but couldn't close the show on Sunday with a faulty two-over 73.

Mistakes late have far too often been what has riddled Ancer from picking up his first career PGA Tour title, but the 25th-ranked player in the world has looked like a different golfer so far in 2020 after nearly leading the International side over the United States in the Presidents Cup in December of 2019.

Ancer has the skillset needed to make the Northern Trust the location of his first triumph on tour, and his $7,800 value on DraftKings has been subsided too steep because of his recent share of 43rd place at the PGA Championship. Ancer is a top-25 golfer in the world for a reason, and the value there at his 30th place price tag to grab him as an underpriced commodity.

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