ADP Showdown: Jonathan Taylor vs. David Montgomery

We're approaching the middle of August and entering the prime season of fantasy drafts, which means it's time to debate between two players at the same position with similar ADPs. When you are aware of a player's ADP, it makes it easier to decide whether you are willing to reach on one of your guys, or if you feel that the price is too high. For this article, we'll be using current ADP data for PPR formats from FantasyPros.

Today we have a classic clash between risk aversion and upside drafting. In one corner, we have Colts' rookie RB Jonathan Taylor - a player trying to hit the ground running in his debut season. He'll be going up against Bears' sophomore RB David Montgomery - a player looking to bounce-back following a disappointing rookie season. This should be an interesting showdown, but I think that there's an obvious winner here.

Both of these players are being selected as RB2s, but only one of them is worth the investment. Those chasing volume and floor will likely prefer Montgomery, while others searching for talent and upside will go for Taylor. Let's take a deep dive into these two players and find out who the better option is at their current ADP. We'll take a look at production, context, and opportunity to come to this conclusion.

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Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: RB22 (47th overall)

Production

Jonathan Taylor is a 5'10, 228-lb back with the strength to break tackles and the 4.41 speed to take it to the house. He absolutely dominated the college ranks in his time at Wisconsin, just take a look at his production:

This type of profile and production would have made Taylor a top-ten pick if he were drafted ten years ago. He fell to the second round because RB has become an increasingly devalued position, but this is a player with elite running ability. Taylor is not known for his skills in the passing game, but it's encouraging to see an uptick in usage in his final season at Wisconsin. If he can provide similar production in the passing game as a rookie, we'll be content because of how good he is as a runner.

Context

Taylor was drafted by the Colts, which is a terrific landing spot for potential fantasy production. The Colts return all five of their starters on an offensive line that was ranked 1st in the NFL by Pro Football Focus in their annual rankings. It's a line led by All-Pro left guard Quentin Nelson, who excels in both pass protection and run-blocking. With 38-year old Philip Rivers at the helm, we can expect head coach Frank Reich to lean on the running game to make it easier on their future Hall-of-Fame quarterback. The team averaged 133.1 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 7th in the NFL, so the foundation is already in place for Taylor to succeed. The Colts project as contenders for the AFC South, so Taylor will often find himself in positive game scripts for fantasy production.

Opportunity

The one question mark surrounding Taylor is his potential volume because the team already has Marlon Mack, who is coming off a season where he put up 1,173 total yards and eight touchdowns. Like Taylor, Mack is sparingly used in the passing game, with only 14 receptions for 82 yards last season. This makes it likely that both backs will be competing for carries in early downs before being spelled by pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines. While Mack is a competent back, the Colts did not invest a second-round pick in Taylor, a back who needs volume to thrive, to have him split carries. It's only a matter of time before Taylor supplants Mack as the main ball-carrier in this offense. Reports out of camp state that coach Reich wants to go with the hot-hand, which makes Taylor, the superior runner of the two, the better bet. There's a legitimate chance that Mack becomes a non-factor relatively soon.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

ADP: RB24 (53rd overall)

Production

David Montgomery is a 5'10, 222-lb back with 4.64 speed coming off an underwhelming rookie season. Just take a look at his production:

Montgomery's 10.7 PPR points per game was as mediocre as it gets, putting him at RB31 in the NFL. What makes this ranking even worse is the fact that Montgomery was averaging over 16 touches per game. This shows how inefficient he was as a rookie. The good news is that there are encouraging reports out of camp:

David Montgomery is weighing in this season at 222lbs and 8% bodyfat. This is a major improvement from last year where he was 223lbs and 12% BF. Expect a stronger and faster RB this season

— Dr. Michael Tal Risher (@DrRisher) August 8, 2020

We have seen how shedding weight has worked for backs like Le'Veon Bell, so perhaps we can see a similar effect on Montgomery. He'll definitely need to add some big plays this year because inefficient volume leads to less volume.

Context

The Bears' offense was a dumpster fire last season, as Mitch Trubisky regressed in his third year. It's likely that Montgomery's struggles are directly related to the ineptitude of his quarterback. The Bears traded for Nick Foles, who will challenge Trubisky for the starting role. If Foles plays, he'll likely be an upgrade - if Trubisky wins the job, that means he's likely back to 2018 form. The best bet for Montgomery is for Trubisky to win the job because his rushing ability at quarterback would open up running lanes. Montgomery will need all the help that he can get because this is an offensive line that ranked 23rd in PFF's rankings. If the line can get back to 2018 form, where it ranked as a fringe-top 10 unit, then Montgomery will have a chance to deliver solid production.

Opportunity

The main appeal with Montgomery is that he has a secure role with early downs and red-zone carries. Last season, he ranked tied for 10th with 23 carries inside the 10-yard, so opportunities abound for rushing touchdowns. The risk here is that if Montgomery remains the inefficient plodder he was as a rookie, we could see the team opt to look elsewhere for a veteran to compete for carries on first and second downs. Like Taylor, Montgomery offers little in the passing game, as Tarik Cohen monopolizes that role in Chicago. This makes it imperative for Montgomery to improve as a runner because that's where he derives a significant portion of his fantasy value.

Verdict

My main philosophy in fantasy drafts is to avoid risk aversion and focus on drafting upside. Jonathan Taylor is a talented runner with a league-winning ceiling. He'll be running behind the best offensive line in football. If Marlon Mack was on another team, Taylor would likely have a first-round ADP. Mack's presence has created a buying opportunity, so we must capitalize. Montgomery is the safer choice with a clearly defined role, but his underwhelming rookie season has left a stench that has become hard to ignore. Taylor is the clear winner in this bout because of his sky-high upside as the superior runner. Don't pass on this talented runner just because the alternative projects for more volume. Go with Taylor here.

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