RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Wyndham Championship
Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
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In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Head-To-Head Selection
Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston
Reasons I Liked the Play:
We have seen a ton of reverse line movement on this play so far in the week, with Henley dropping from a -130 favorite down to a virtual pick'em at -110. I thought the opening line of -130 was spot-on for where the number should have been, and it is hard to ignore the four percent advantage of implied win probability we are getting over my math. Poston's victory here last season seems to be attracting some sharp money into the market, but his poor iron play recently has my model raising a red flag.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Frankly, it just comes down to a lack of upside potential for Henley. Head-to-head bets are not about trying to pinpoint the winner of the tournament, but his deficiency of birdie-making prowess might be his eventual downfall at an event that is going to require a score inside the 20s to win. Poston has proven he can get to that total at Sedgefield Country Club in the past, and his improvements on Bermuda over all other surfaces is a notable one.
0.77 Units to Win 0.70
Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas
Reasons I Liked the Play:
We get two guys who are heading in opposite directions over the last month. Cameron Davis has compiled back-to-back top-35 finishes, including a 22nd place result at this week's venue last season. Vegas, on the other hand, hasn't made a cut since the Workday Charity Open and continues to struggle with his irons and short game.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
I have trepidation behind this play for a few reasons. It would be naive to deal in absolutes when it comes to both Davis and Vegas' recent form. I don't believe the Aussie is this steady or consistent, and I know for a fact that Vegas is not this bad - especially when it comes to his ball-striking nature. This play does have my biggest disparity difference of the week at nearly 10% off of what it should be when it comes to implied probability, but I can't say I am overly enthusiastic for the reasons mentioned above. It feels like one of those spots where my model is being a little too sensitive to limited recent results, but it is still worth a play at a plus-number.
0.64 Units to Win 0.70
Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk
Reasons I Liked the Play:
It has become a weekly practice for us of fading Chris Kirk in this article. I continue to stand by this narrative that the American is overvalued because of the traction he has gained by the media over his recent troubles off the golf course, but it is not as if it has done us a ton of good by going 2-3 over our past 5 attempts of opposing him. I'm a firm believer that his top-25 in Detroit can be chalked up to some lucky around the green shots, and it is not as if he has provided anything else inside the top-25 since March of 2019.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Of all the weeks we have faded Chris Kirk, Sedgefield Country Club does make the most sense for him to find success with his game. It should allow the American to use his mid-iron skills to receive a boost in his often faulty approach numbers, and it also will provide him with a chance to find scoring opportunities at an easier venue. Kirk remains a better fade when the going gets tough, and it doesn't help that some of Sam Burns' off the tee abilities will get negated this week.
0.58 Units to Win 0.70
Adding
Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson
Adding Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson. I have these two at a virtual coin flip for the week. Webb isn't a person I'm actively looking to fade, but this number has gotten carried away.
0.65 Units to Win 1.04
Top-20 Recommendations (All Ties Pay Fully)
Patrick Reed (+100) - 0.75 to Win 0.75
Most 16/1 shots aren't going to equate to being even-money to finish inside the top-20 in fields of 156 players, but that is assuming 16/1 is the proper price on the surface. I have Reed as my most likely person to walk out of North Carolina victorious, and I believe his overall level of consistency and upside plays across the board in all contests and bets.
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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-10-3)
-0.12 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth | .90 Units to Win 0.62 | T14 (-16) | T68 (-4) | Win | 0.62 |
| Travelers Championship | Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel | 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (-2) | MC (-2) | Push | 0 |
| Rocket Mortgage | Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk | 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 | T12 (-14) | T21 (-13) | Win | 1.17 |
| Workday | Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+14) | T39 (-4) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 | MC (+1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka | 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -1.15 |
| 3M Open | Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab | 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 | T41 (-9) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.15 |
| PGA Championship | Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed | 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 | T13 (-7) | T13 (-7) | Push | 0 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
15-17-0 (+1.13 Units)
| Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 | MC (+6) | MC (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T13 (+1) | Loss | -1 |
| Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T54 (+9( | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners | 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -0.88 |
| Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (+5) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman | 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 | T62 (-3) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -0.7 |
| Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (E) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.7 |
Premium Top-20
8-of-36 (+4.78 Units)
| Tournament | Bet | Odds | Risk Units | Potential Win | Result | Outcome |
| PGA Championship | Abraham Ancer | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 | Loss | -0.5 |
| PGA Championship | Henrik Stenson | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | Loss | -0.25 |
| PGA Championship | Corey Conners | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | Loss | -0.25 |
| PGA Championship | Brendan Steele | 5.5 | 0.18 | 0.99 | Loss | -0.18 |
| PGA Championship | Joel Dahmen | 6 | 0.17 | 1.02 | Win | 1.02 |
| PGA Championship | Russell Henley | 7 | 0.19 | 1.33 | Loss | -0.19 |
| PGA Championship | Lucas Glover | 7 | 0.16 | 1.12 | Loss | -0.16 |
| PGA Championship | Brian Harman | 7 | 0.15 | 1.05 | Loss | -0.15 |
| PGA Championship | Harold Varner III | 10 | 0.1 | 1 | Loss | -0.1 |
| PGA Championship | Brooks Koepka (NOT T10) | -150 | 1.5 | 1 | Win | 1 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Corey Conners | 3 | 0.35 | 1.05 | Loss | -0.35 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Corey Conners (T10) | 8 | 0.13 | 1.04 | Loss | -0.13 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Scottie Scheffler | 3 | 0.34 | 1.02 | Win | 1.02 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Scottie Scheffler (T10) | 8 | 0.13 | 1.04 | Loss | -0.13 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Nick Taylor | 9 | 0.15 | 1.35 | Loss | -0.15 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Cameron Champ | 5 | 0.21 | 1.05 | Loss | -0.21 |
| WGC-St. Jude | Cameron Champ (T10) | 14 | 0.09 | 1.26 | Loss | -0.09 |
| 3M Open | Bubba Watson (T10) | 3 | 0.35 | 1.05 | Loss | -0.35 |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas | 3 | 0.38 | 1.14 | Loss | -0.38 |
| 3M Open | Max Homa | 3 | 0.35 | 1.05 | Win | 1.05 |
| 3M Open | Sepp Straka | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.05 | Win | 1.05 |
| 3M Open | Will Gordon | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.05 | Loss | -0.3 |
| 3M Open | Aaron Wise | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | Loss | -0.25 |
| 3M Open | Adam Schenk | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | Loss | -0.25 |
| 3M Open | Ryan Brehm | 14 | 0.22 | 3.08 | Loss | -0.22 |
| Memorial | Matthew NeSmith | 8 | 0.15 | 1.2 | Loss | -0.15 |
| Memorial | Sergio Garcia | 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | Loss | -0.5 |
| Memorial | Tony Finau | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.44 | Win | 1.44 |
| Memorial | Webb Simpson | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.99 | Loss | -0.9 |
| Memorial | Hideki Matsuyama | 1.2 | 0.85 | 1.02 | Loss | -0.85 |
| Memorial | Xander Schauffele | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.04 | Win | 1.04 |
| Memorial | Rory McIlroy (T10) | 1.6 | 0.7 | 1.12 | Loss | -0.7 |
| RBC Heritage | Matthew NeSmith | 8 | 0.65 | 5.2 | Loss | -0.65 |
| RBC Heritage | Bernhard Langer | 20 | 0.25 | 5 | Loss | -0.25 |
| Charles Schwab | Bernhard Langer | 20 | 0.25 | 5 | Loss | -0.25 |
| Charles Schwab | Corey Conners | 6 | 1 | 6 | Win | 6 |
Free Top-20
2-of-8 (+0.94 Units)
| Tournament | Bet | Odds | Risk Units | Potential Win | Result | Outcome |
| PGA Championship | Tony Finau (T5) R4 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.05 | Win | 1.05 |
| Barracuda | Seamus Power (T5) | 30 | 0.06 | 1.8 | Loss | -0.06 |
| Barracuda | Seamus Power | 6 | 0.17 | 1.02 | Win | 1.02 |
| Barracuda | Ryan Brehm (T5) | 50 | 0.05 | 2.5 | Loss | -0.05 |
| Barracuda | Ryan Brehm | 10 | 0.1 | 1 | Loss | -0.1 |
| 3M Open | Cameron Davis (T5) R4 | 4.5 | 0.25 | 1.125 | Loss | -0.25 |
| 3M Open | Doc Redman | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.75 | Loss | -0.3 |
| 3M Open | Luke List | 2 | 0.37 | 0.74 | Loss | -0.37 |
2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Dustin Johnson | Travelers Championship | 30 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Abraham Ancer | RBC Heritage | 125 | 2 |
| Max Homa | 3M Open | 80 | 3 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Adam Hadwin | Rocket Mortgage | 70 | 4 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Tony Finau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Jason Day | PGA Championship | 66 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | RBC Heritage | 200 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Xander Schauffele | WGC-St.Jude | 22 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Maverick McNealy | Rocket Mortgage | 100 | 8 |
| Tony Finau | Memorial | 66 | 8 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
| Xander Schauffele | PGA Championship | 35 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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