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We have finally reached the start of the 2020 MLB Season! Just sit and let that sink in for a moment, folks. After four long months of waiting, we can finally start setting our lineups and get into the groove of fantasy baseball. Of course, along with the start of the 2020 season, comes the start of MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Thursday, July 30th presents a slate of 10 games for us to choose from. Some games we can try to take advantage of include the Rangers at Athletics and Blue Jays at Braves.
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Rangers @ Athletics: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Mike Minor under 5.5 strikeouts and Mike Fiers under 5.5 strikeouts
Mike Minor has been a very strong pitcher over the last couple of seasons, but has shown some struggles vs. right-handed hitters. Since 2018, Minor has only struck out 21% of righties faced as opposed to 24% of left-handed hitters faced and this trend has continued in 2020 as he has only struck out eight of the 38 righties he has faced. Oakland will undoubtedly bring out a right-handed heavy lineup in this game as they hit lefties to the tune of .262/.334/.477 and also only struck out just above 20%. Minor also never struck out more than five batters in his three starts vs. Oakland in 2019. Mike Fiers has started the season slowly as he only has three strikeouts across 10 IP vs. the Mariners and Angels. The Rangers should also prove to be a difficult test for Fiers as they are simply not striking out vs. right-handed pitching to start the season. They have struck out just 47 times across 192 AB.
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More or Less Contest - Shin-Soo Choo more than 1.5 hits/walks and Ramon Laureano more than 1.5 total bases
Shin-soo Choo More than 1.5 hits/walks - While Choo has not started the season off very hot, he is always a guy I look for on MKF when he gets the hits/walks combination because he is so good at getting on base this way, especially against right-handed pitching. Since 2018, Choo has posted a .394 OBP vs. right-handed pitching. He has also shown success against Mike Fiers in the past as he is a career 10/27 with five BB and a whopping .469 OBP.
Ramon Laureano more than 1.5 total bases - Ramon Laureano is currently molten lava, the dude is so hot right now. He has begun the season by slashing .293/.392/.561 with three HR and two doubles. He has also reached two total bases in five of the ten games he has played this season and is finding great success doing this vs. left-handed pitching, which Mike Minor is. In 2020, Laureano is slashing .444/.444/1.111 vs. left-handed pitching and has compiled two of his three HR vs. lefties. Let's look for him to stay hot in this contest.
Blue Jays at Braves: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Nate Pearson more than 5.5 strikeouts and Touki Toussaint less than 5.5 strikeouts
I almost wanted to go under on both of these totals, but I think Pearson can get there. This contest does not come without risk however as it should certainly be close. Pearson made his first start vs. a very patient Nationals lineup that only strikes out about 23% of the time vs. right-handed pitching and managed to K five across five innings while only giving up two hits and two walks. Now, he goes against a more free-swinging Braves team that is striking out closer to 30% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. If he shows the type of command he displayed in his debut, he should be able to reach this total against this Braves lineup. Toussaint is a wild arm that has yet to be tamed. So far in 2020, he has walked four and struck out 11 across 6.2 IP and has allowed six earned runs. The Blue Jays should be able to keep him under the total as they strike out less than the Mets and Rays, which are the two teams Toussaint has faced thus far. In those games he recorded five and six strikeouts, respectively. The main concern here is that the Blue Jays will not be patient in their approach as they only have 16 BB in 212 AB vs. righties. They will need to be more patient with a pitcher like Toussaint in order to get him into trouble and out of the game early, and I think they will.
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