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RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable
2020 PGA Championship
The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.
Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!
Who is your favorite DFS value play?
- Joe Nicely: Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) & Chez Reavie ($7,400)
- Spencer Aguiar: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,000), Abraham Ancer ($7,700)
- Josh Bennett: Ian Poulter (7,100)
- Tommy Bell: Abe Ancer ($7,700)
Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?
- Joe Nicely: JT ($11,300), Brooks ($11,100), & Xander ($10,000)
- Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy ($10,700) - You are going to need upside if you are looking to take down a massive prize pool this week, and McIlroy’s A-game still makes him the best player in the world.
- Josh Bennett: Bryson DeChambeau (10,300)
- Tommy Bell: Jon Rahm ($10,500)
Who is your top GPP play?
- Joe Nicely: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) & Collin Morikawa ($8,600)
- Spencer Aguiar: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
- Josh Bennett: Tommy Fleetwood (7,700)
- Tommy Bell: Justin Rose ($7,800)
Who is your top Cash-Game play?
- Joe Nicely: Tony Finau ($7,900)
- Spencer Aguiar: Abraham Ancer ($7,700)
- Josh Bennett: Hideki Matsuyama (8,200)
- Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger ($8,800)
Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?
- Joe Nicely: Bryson DeChambeau
- Spencer Aguiar: Brooks Koepka ($11,100) - There are obvious ways where this backfires horrendously, but fading Koepka will mean that we need to avoid a top-two finish. If I don’t think he is winning, I would rather take my chances elsewhere. I don’t necessarily believe the American is going to lay a complete egg - although it is on the table - but the further he slips down the board, the better.
- Josh Bennett: Xander Schauffele (10,000)
- Tommy Bell: Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka (again… *Gulp*)
What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?
- Joe Nicely: SG: T2G, Total Driving, SG: Approach
- Spencer Aguiar: Off The Tee + Approach, Total Driving, Par-Four Efficiency (400-500 Yards) + Bogey Avoidance.
- Josh Bennett: SG: OTT
- Tommy Bell: SG: T2G, Proximity 175-200
Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?
- Joe Nicely: Tom Lewis ($7,100), Luke List ($6,800), Sepp Straka ($6,500)
- Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman ($6,600)
- Josh Bennett: Kurt Kitayama (6,400)
- Tommy Bell: Joel Dahmen ($6,900)
What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)
- Joe Nicely: Jason Day (40/1), Tyrrell Hatton (50/1), Viktor Hovland (50/1)
- Spencer Aguiar: Abraham Ancer +280 (T20), Brooks Koepka Finishes Outside Top-10 (-150)
- Josh Bennett: Gary Woodland top 10 (+450)
- Tommy Bell: Abraham Ancer (52/1)
Make a “bold prediction” for this week:
- Joe Nicely: Bryson DeChambeau cards worse than a double bogey on a hole
- Spencer Aguiar: Tiger Woods Finishes Inside the Top-10
- Josh Bennett: No rules controversies from Bryson
- Tommy Bell: Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas miss the cut, and Jon Rahm wins by 3 strokes
Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?
- Joe Nicely: Collin Morikawa ($8,600) - Love his overall game, the course fit, and the price tag.
- Spencer Aguiar: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) - It was only two weeks ago that we were seeing Patrick Cantlay inside the $10,000 range and Xander Schauffele right around $9,400. While the hype around Xander has become out of control entering the PGA Championship, Cantlay provides a similar skill set at a reduced ownership percentage and total.
- Josh Bennett: Hideki Matsuyama (8,200) - The only real hole in Deki's game is his putter. At his price, he doesn't need to even top 5 to be a great value in a lineup which he usually does have to do at his prices. He's a rare guy that has the game to win in these kinds of fields at a low 8k price.
- Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger ($8,800) - Even after a brutal start in Memphis last week, Berger charged back and nearly won with a crazy low Sunday. The kid can ball, and he’s become an elite player weekly. Now we’re just waiting for DraftKings and the betting market to notice.
What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?
- Joe Nicely: Forced to go balanced due to lack of options below $7k
- Spencer Aguiar: Pricing is so soft that any route is technically acceptable.
- Josh Bennett: Balanced and hope the top guys don't win
- Tommy Bell: One stud, an $8k golfer, and four of my favorite values below $8k
Who is your pick to win the tournament?
- Joe Nicely: Jason Day (Just kidding...but Day could have actually been a legit pick this week. Going with Brooksy)
- Spencer Aguiar: Patrick Cantlay
- Josh Bennett: Bryson DeChambeau
- Tommy Bell: Jon Rahm
Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
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