RADIO
Well, if I was right about one thing, its what a fun GPP slate yesterday was. It would have been a lot more fun if OMG could have pulled the sweep for me.
It was not in the cards, I guess, but it keeps me coming back for more. It’s another two-game LPL-only slate tonight and let’s keep grinding these slates because before you know it the summer split will be over!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Monday, August 5th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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5:00 AM: LNG vs. LGD (-450)
The early game in the LPL will set the table nicely for the nightcap with a playoff team that is a big favorite over a bottom feeder. Though, we have seen LNG play up in the past, including as recently as last week taking a 2-0 sweep from RW. LGD, however, have cause to celebrate as they have reached their first LPL postseason in four years. Now they are looking to improve their playoff seeding with a quick sweep over LNG. With V5 getting swept by EDG yesterday, their chances to move up significantly improved.
Looking at the teams over the last three weeks, we can see LGD standing on their firm monster objective control to take over games in the mid to late game. Its something they have improved on as the split has progressed, and they will have a decided advantage in that area against LNG. LNG has stepped up their early-game play, which has led to them being much more competitive, culminating in their win over RW. In that same three week period, they lead LGD in the first turret, rift herald, and first three turret rates while remaining close on first bloods and gold differential at 15 minutes.
If LNG is going to win this series, they will need to have these games very well in hand at that crucial 15-minute breakpoint. I don't believe they will be able to have large enough leads to take over the game and snowball to the finish, especially against a motivated LGD squad. I like the sweep here from the side of LGD, but with the way this last week has played out, I think the 2-1 is likely the safer call.
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Xiye - MID
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
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7:00 AM: Estar vs. Top Esports (-1400)
TES are locked into the top four of the LPL no matter what they do, and can still reach the top seed. If they win both of their remaining series even if both are 2-1, they can capture first place from JDG with tiebreakers. I will still make a case for Estar here, but I won't believe it myself as the prize of not having to face JDG or IG until summer finals is too great to pass up for TES. Over the last two weeks, Estar has started games out very well. They boast better early stats than TES over that period with better first blood, first turret, rift herald, and first three turret rates. Their mid-late game decision making has been atrocious, though, as they have failed to convert any of those early leads into wins. They have collected exactly zero barons over that stretch, losing 2-0 to RW, JDG, and WE. The jungle position will make or break this matchup.
Karsa's most played jungle champ is Trundle which only sports a 45% win rate in the region, if you take away his nine wins on the champ it drops to 40%. Wei's most played is the Graves so that you can see the difference between the two jungle styles. Karsa's nickname is 雷达哥, radar bro in Chinese. He plays to set up his all-world laners, and keep tabs on the enemy jungler, his experience in the role helps him with this. Wei plays the more carry style junglers and has more to do for his team in that carry role without such strong laners to lean on. I'll put my faith in Karsa here to keep tabs on Wei while his laners forge ahead, allowing them to exploit their more reliable mid-late game. If you're going to opt-in on Estar for the 1% gpp play, you have to lock Wei, but I won't recommend it with TES sniffing that first place status.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- 369 - TOP
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
Summary
- TLDR - yesterday was fun, but you can't talk me off the favs today they've got too much to live for. TES and LGD both win, and they probably both sweep.
- Double top lane fits pretty easily on this one, and I expect it to be prevalent. I think the TES match is the bloodier of the two just given the way they like to play, so I'll try to fit as many TES players as I can.
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