RADIO
Hello again, my dear LOL friends, and welcome back to another weekend edition of my LPL/LCK picks and analysis here at RotoBaller!
Five matches tomorrow morning and I am geared up for it to say the least. The Summer split is winding down and the playoff race is tightening up.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 3:00 AM on Sunday, August 2nd, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM Damwon Gaming (-2500) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
We have seen some big favorites go down this split, but it feels like that has tapered off since the begining of summer, and even then was a little more isolated to the LPL. I do always say that DWG are the Invictus Gaming of the LCK in that they have to talent to beat anyone, but also are sloppy and can find a way to lose to anyone as well. I usually like to present a way for the dogs to win some of these matches so if you're feeling froggy you can let ‘em rip.
The only thing I have for this poor HLE squad is that DWG are a bit inconsistent. Coming off a huge win over DRX, and heading into another top of the table clash with the side of Gen G as their next game HLE could catch them napping here. I don't like it though. DWG have been crazy strong early in games and snowballed through to the end. HLE only statistcal advantage that means anything is a slight vision lead, but it will be nearly impossible for them to make that meaningful in this one. DWG gold differential at 15 minutes is nearly 2500, while HLE sit at negative 1300. In the current meta which rewards early aggresion and punsihes passivity being down over 3k gold on average at 15 minutes is not a recipe for success.
DWG also have an astounding 92% rate of being the first team to take down all the outter turrets. That gives them an inate advantage in their vision that they don't account for in the stats as their waves push further into enemy territory negating the one up that HLE has. The only problem I have with DWG here is that they are the most expensive team across the board, and HLE should provide little resisitence as they only average 15 deaths per loss. DWG may win too easily and not score enough fantasy points to justify their prices on DK.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Beryl - SUP
- Nuguri - TOP
7:00 AM: T1 (-575) vs. Sandbox Gaming
With the three LPL games on the slate this is now the late late game, and with T1 dropping some shenanigans last time out I think i'm pretty comfortable in saying that this game will be much lower owned in comparision to the others. Sandbox is 0 for the year versus T1, but it's been a week for breakthroughs. Since patch 10.13 came into play in week four (which is also the breakpoint for SBG new coach) SBG has been the better team statistically. They hold leads in every category except for vision numbers and drake percentage.
I like the idea of playing Sandbox here for some salary relief, but their upside is limited by the slow play of T1 and their incredible ability to stall. I like the idea of playing some T1 as they are reasonably priced and SBG do give up 17 kills on average when they lose, but I don't know who will play outside of Teddy, Effort, and Canna - Probably. Clozer was a fun and exciting sub last time out, and we can get Ellim at any time just for funsies. I think we can still split our exposure here if entering multiple lineups and fade if only entering one. My best guess is that Faker comes back and that Cuzz stays in the lineup against SBG due to them being a better team than KT currently. I still wouldn't reccomend them.
Top T1 Plays
- Teddy - ADC
- Effort - SUP
- Canna - TOP
Top SBG Plays
- Onfleek - JNG
- FATE - MID
- SBG Team
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: Victory 5 vs. JDG (-235)
These two are the same team, JDG is just the better version. They are methodical and farm then win mid-game with a fed jungler. I'm all over cheap JDG here, but I think everyone else will be, too, so V5 is a potential leverage spot. It’s just hard to go against the defending champs here as they are also in great form of late.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC
- Kanavi - JNG
- LvMao - SUP
- Zoom - TOP
5:00 AM: Estar vs. Team WE (-345)
WE, especially Teacherma, have been exposed recently, but Estar isn't the team to take advantage. I don't think so anyway. They're not good enough early to get a snowball going and when it somes to team fights later in the game they dont have the same all in mentality that WE do. You can play eStar for GPPs as WE give over 18 kills in losses, as their all-in mentality ruins them when they’re down because they know nothing else. WE should win here and score well, but EStar would break the slate if they pulled the upset.
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG
- Juimeng - ADC
- Missing - SUP
- Teacherma - MID
7:00 AM: Top Esports (-575) vs. Royal Never Give Up
It is always risky to fade TES on any slate with their talent and ability to dominate games. However, RNG only give over 14.5 deaths in their losses and play slow. TES always seem to garner some ownership due to their popularity so they’re my least favorite favorite on this slate. Look for them to win a 2-0 decision with low kill counts.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyanjia - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - JDG, DWG, WE, TES, and T1 win. SBG or ES for dogs if you wanna roll them. RNG 1% raw upside play if you hate money or buy that TES are struggling.
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