The King's FLEX Draft Observations: Superflex Picks and Strategies

As much as Tout Wars is a signal that fantasy baseball season has officially started, the FLEX Leagues are an important signpost that officially proclaim we have entered the fantasy football portion of the calendar. The FLEX (Fantasy League of Experts) leagues are the brainchild of fantasy industry standout Jake Ciely of The Athletic. He created the multiple leagues five years ago to spur industry camaraderie while giving fantasy players multiple league formats to follow so they could have access to the strategies and projected player outlooks from top experts.

I participated in the first FLEX draft of the season. It was a Superflex format with 11 other fantasy experts. This is a half-point PPR format with four points for TD passes. Starting lineups include one QB, two RB, three WR, one Flex, and one Superflex, plus a team defensive unit.

In this feature, I spotlight some of my own picks and some interesting choices from the other experts. You can listen to additional coverage of the FLEX drafts on-demand on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. A listing of the draft picks follows the commentary, via Fantrax.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

The FLEX Superflex Draft Breakdown

Round One: It's no shock to anyone who follows my work that I took Lamar Jackson at fourth overall. Clyde Edwards-Helaire at sixth overall was an aggressive move, especially when Alvin Kamara was still on the board. The upside of CEH is obvious, but Kamara is much more proven with a better chance to get back into elite territory than for a rookie to land there. Edwards-Helaire has already missed rookie camps and OTAs and will not have a normal preseason. He may need more early-season time to get fully acclimated to the NFL. I like Edwards-Helaire a lot, just not in the middle of the first round.

Round Two: By the time it was my turn to pick in the second round, 13 RBs had been taken, so I needed to address the position immediately. Melvin Gordon was my highest ranked RB at that point. He is set for a bounce-back campaign as he should assume a heavy workload for the Broncos. Phillip Lindsay will be a clear second on the depth chart and Royce Freeman won’t get many touches. Three QBs went in the second round. Every Superflex draft is unique, as five QBs went in the first two rounds here, and five could go in the first round alone in another league. Be prepared to adjust to a unique flow in every Superflex or two QB draft.

Round Three: Working against a savvy group of experts, I needed to be less conservative, so I opted for Chris Carson, who could produce the best numbers of any RB remaining if he stays healthy. Carson was fifth in the NFL and second in the NFC in rushing yards last year despite missing one game and much of another at the end of the season. I was glad Todd Gurley was taken ahead of him, as the Atlanta RB is a major risk who will only produce adequately when available.  Leonard Fournette is not a sexy pick, but he was a smart one. He will still get a ton of attempts and can compensate for any perceived drop in receptions with positive regression in the TD department.

Round Four: In any draft, you need to go with the flow and anticipate when you should make a needed move at a position and when you can wait. I was not quite ready to take a QB yet, as a few players in my Top 16 were still available. So I went for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who should be statistically rejuvenated working with Ben Roethlisberger, who should return to his better form. D.J. Moore is a strong pick, as he nearly reached 90 catches and 1,200 yards last year, and his QB situation has improved. Le’Veon Bell can be better than last year if Adam Gase plays to his strengths instead of forcing him into his schemes.

Round Five: Again, I look for upside types when drafting against an impressive group of experts. Many fantasy analysts are a bit down on Amari Cooper, but I will gladly take him as a WR2. He will face less defensive attention with CeeDee Lamb now added to the Dallas WR group. Cooper can still explode in any given week. I was still willing to wait one more round at QB, as long as I landed a player inside my Top 20 or so. Baker Mayfield went ahead of Daniel Jones, who has already shown more promise than the Cleveland QB. Raheem Mostert is going to set out to show how much money he deserves, and will deliver some really big weeks in 2020.

Round Six: Being patient on a QB worked out, as Cam Newton is eager to regain respect and should perform at least well enough to start him in a redesigned New England RPO offense. His supporting cast is not star-studded but will fit the game plan well and help him author a comeback tale. Joe Burrow could be another rookie adversely affected by an unusual preseason in the early going. But he should still ultimately be a good reward for those who wait on a second QB in Superflex/two-QB formats.

Round Seven: I would rather not have two players from the same team in my starting lineup in most scenarios, especially when they do not involve a QB/WR connection, and I only really prefer Mahomes to Hill there. But there was no way I could resist the lure of DK Metcalf in my WR3 spot. He has a high-end WR2 ceiling in his second year. I am avoiding Michael Gallup because Lamb is going to surpass him on the Dallas depth chart no later than midyear. Ryan Tannehill is an underrated value play by this point and I nearly took him over Newton in the sixth round. He threw 16 TD passes in his last seven regular-season games and he rushed for four TDs in 12 games played. Don’t let his postseason statistical slippage dissuade you from taking him as a later QB2 option.

Round Eight: I strongly believe Tyler Higbee is going to build on his late-season momentum from 2019. I have seen Jared Goff try to develop a quality on-field connection with him since the preseason of his rookie year. I want no part of Ronald Jones. I will just call him “Nojo.” Tampa Bay drafted his replacement and signed a declined veteran because they don’t believe in Jones, and neither do I. His supporters claim he was improved last year. Well, when you consider he totaled just 77 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, it was pretty easy to “improve.”

Round Nine: Tyler Boyd slipped to me as an underrated value play here. He is coming off two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and now he gets a QB upgrade. Burrow should start to feel more comfortable as the season progresses. In a format that so highly emphasizes QBs and RBs, I still ended up with a superb WR quartet of Smith-Schuster, Cooper, Metcalf and Boyd. Noah Fant is headed for a breakthrough season as he and Drew Lock ascend. Sony Michel could bounce back in an RPO offense while the threat of Damien Harris taking his starting job may also be an extra motivator.

Round 10: The backup QBs were getting scarce, and I wanted one who at least seemed to have a decent chance of keeping his starting job, so I went with Derek Carr. Diontae Johnson was a very nifty value pick at this point, as he should rise to a fantasy starter level with Roethlisberger back.

Later-Round Reflections

Marlon Mack gave me some RB depth even though it was not an exciting pick. The Carlos Hyde selection was essential because of Carson’s injury history. Breshad Perriman was a nice later-round upside target for me. Teammate Chris Herndon could play a prominent role in the Jets passing game this season. Hunter Renfrow is stirring a lot of internal buzz in Las Vegas as a breakthrough candidate. The same is true of Steven Sims in Washington.

On other teams, the Hayden Hurst selection at the end of Round 11 was a great value pick. He could threaten to be a Top 5 Fantasy TE this year. Golden Tate was a respectable pick in Round 13. He might be the leading WR for the Giants this year and still is very dangerous after the catch. Jalen Reagor (Round 13). could become the Eagles’ No. 1 WR as a rookie. Ke’Shawn Vaughn fell to Round 14, yet may still emerge as the Tampa Bay starter at RB at some point this season. Corey Davis (15) is not on my radar, even in an 18 round draft. A.J. Brown is the go-to WR now and Davis is unlikely to become the DeVante Parker of 2020. Parris Campbell (17) may become a viable fantasy option this season.

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