RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! What another wild week on the PGA Tour. Some of the best golfers missed the cut, and in the end Tony Finau came up short again, as Michael Thompson won for the second time in his career. We have the benefit of a no-cut event this week, but that also means that bets, picks, scores can shift dramatically from one day to another. Regardless, it should be fun, and we get a great field leading up to our first major of the season. Let's get to it!
Using my PGA DFS and betting research for both DraftKings and handicapping, I'll look into some of the Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational to see which posted numbers make sense to take a stand on. You can use this advice to place your own wagers on MKF. As always, send any questions, comments, or banter my way on Twitter. You can find me @BellRoto.
Now let's get to some PGA Monkey Knife Fight prop bet picks for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind!
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Pick 1: More or Less (4x Prize)
Birdies or Better: Patrick Cantlay MORE than 18.5
Cantlay has looked great since his return after the long layoff from tournament golf. Though the Par-70 course will limit his ability to reel in Par 5 birdies/eagles, the kid can score with solid irons and sound putting. After managing 16 birdies at the difficult Memorial Tournament, logging 19 birdies at TPC Southwinds should be a breeze (see what I did there?).
Birdies or Better: Tony Finau MORE than 18.5
While Finau continues to throw away leads with bogeys in key spots, the scoring and iron ability has not wavered. His form is as good as ever right now, and while he may not have the bogey avoidance to land in the winner's circle, there is no questioning his ability to rack up birdies or better in bunches.
Birdies or Better: Hideki Matsuyama LESS than 18.5
Matsuyama is solid with the long irons, but it's going to take more than that to score well at the Par 70 TPC Southwinds. While the putter can get hot from time to time, I don't trust it enough to bank on him getting to this number with just two Par 5s per round, even if a made cut is guaranteed. I'll take the under on Deki.
Pick 2: Rapidfire (4x Prize)
More Birdies or Better: Bryson DeChambeau (+0.5) over Jon Rahm
I'll make this one simple: Any time that Bryson is an underdog for birdies or better, I'm probably taking him. Sure, Jon Rahm looked great at the Memorial Tournament, but that doesn't change my outlook on how the two stack up. Rahm definitely strikes me as a better player on difficult tracks with deep rough. I think DeChambeau will prevail here when it comes to scoring, simply because of the advantage he'll gain off the tee. Throw in the extra 0.5, and it's a no-brainer.
More Birdies or Better: Patrick Cantlay (+0.5) over Justin Thomas
This one is really close, and the bonus 0.5 for Cantlay pushed me his way. Thomas looked great at the Workday, but he was doing it more with bogey avoidance than incredible scoring. Cantlay strikes me as the better putter right now, and JT can fall apart quickly if his tee shots allude him. I'll double down on Cantlay in a close call.
More Birdies or Better: Tony Finau over Hideki Matsuyama (+0.5)
See analysis above...
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