RADIO
What a slate last night we saw speed runs in the LCK and a couple of tense showdowns on the LPL side. I picked all four games right, but didn't cash on DK as I didn't prioritize Canyon in my DWG builds.
He was incredible, and I missed out, that's ok as we'll be back again tonight with some more great matchups in both leagues.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Saturday, July 25th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM T1 (-1400) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
As I have previously mentioned, we don't often see these more substantial favorites in the LCK drop games and series the way we do on the LPL. In general, LCK teams are more risk-averse than those of the LPL. The teams top to bottom shy away from 50/50 scenarios preferring to wait until they find something that suits them better, even if that better spot never comes. Simple enough way to say that I don't see any way that T1 lose this matchup, and I can't even include my usual caveat about Viper and Lehends going two verses eight. T1 may give some playing time to some of their backups, which is more common among the LCK teams when they face an inferior opponent.
T1 has every statical advantage in this match. Early, middle, and late games will all fall on the side of T1, and I can't see anything other than a sweep. If some backups do start, we'll know in time as they are the early game, and I might play some of them for the value. Other than that, I usually like to avoid T1 Plays, especially in matchups, where they should win without much difficulty.
Top T1 Plays
- Canna - TOP
- Teddy - ADC
- Effort - SUP
- T1 Team
7:00 AM: Dragon X (-120) vs. Gen G (-115)
Ok peeps, the LCK's second round-robin is going to have some bangers for us to hopefully help us sort out these top teams before playoffs begin. This top of the table clash features one and two in both the standings and in my eyes. Historically DRX has had the upper hand in the Deft era holding a 6-3 edge in series with a 13-7 game score. Within this season, DRX holds a 2-1 series edge with a 5-3 game score, and the teams splitting the best of ones they played at MSC.
Summer split Gen G has really turned up the heat, and they are second in the league in early game rating via Oracles Elixir (insert link) to only DWG who we just saw destroy SBG in an under 50-minute series. DRX sits third in that metric, but a lot of their early power comes from their laning prowess, which they use to create early gold leads. Gen G has been the more proactive early game team, leading DRX in first blood 72-46%, the first turret 80-39%, first three turrets 80-68%, rift herald 76-41%, first drake 60-43%, total drakes 69-56%, and they still find time to employ a slight vision advantage. DRX holds the gold differential at 15 lead and a slight lead in baron's.
If it weren't for Top Esports and their sound drubbing of this Gen G squad at MSC 3-0, I think Gen G might be the best team on the planet. I like Gen G to win in a 2-1, and even though its a small sample size DRX has died a lot in their few losses this split. This often happens with good teams since they are never afraid to try to fight their way back into a game. This match is still close because DRX is also playing as good as anyone right now, and Chovy seems to get the better of BDD always.
Top Gen G Plays
- Ruler - ADC
- Clid - JNG
- Rascal - TOP
- Life - SUP *
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Vici Gaming (-250) vs. OMG
Oh, here's an easy one for us. Omg are terrible, and we all hate them, and VG could just as well be RW or V5; they're so good. What if I told you two games only separate OMG and VG in the LPL standings. Vici is 12-16, while OMG is 11-17. Yeah, but Vici has great stats right. Their stats are slightly better than those of OMG.
Vici hold decent leads in the first turret, gold at 15, rift heralds, and small leads in drakes, barons, and vision scores. OMG, believe it or not, has a much better win percentage on the red side. They are 50/50 with the counter pick and one of eight on the blue side. Vici starts blue tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them opt for a red start as they technically have side selection. That would mitigate OMG's only real advantage. VG is the better team, and they're better coached, but for the ownership discount, give me some OMG tonight. At the risk of getting outted on Twitter.com for stealing other touts nomenclature, hold your nose and take some OMG as your vomit stacks tonight.
Top OMG Plays:
- Curse - TOP
- Icon - MID
- Smlz - ADC
- OMG Team
7:00 AM: Edward Gaming vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-260)
FunPlus have gotten themselves into the final playoff spot, but now they have to hold it. I know you're thinking to yourself, "Don't they need to get out of the eighth slot of risk facing TES!?" The LPL's first seed gets a goodbye into the semifinals, and so the eighth seed faces the fifth seed, which is now V5. FPX faces DMO, LGD, and SNG to finish off the split, and they have some winnable matchups and could work themselves into a better seed. For FPX, I think working on their jungle-mid-support synergy is more important than seeding.
EDG has struggled with this Doinb led version of FPX going 0-4 in series versus the effervescent mid laner to the tune of 9-3 game score. EDG has also gone 0-2 versus great value FPX, the Teacherma version of Team WE. EDG is a team with their back against the wall; however, sitting at four wins, and the magic number always seems to be nine in the LPL. They would need to win out versus LNG, BLG, V5, and Estar. We might see the first LPL playoffs without EDG in it since the league's inception, and unfortunately, that starts tonight with an FPX win.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Tian - JNG
- Lwx - ADC
- Gimgoon - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - T1, Gen G, VG, FPX win tonight. Gen G looks good with some small sample sizes for DRX deaths in losses, and that match could go either way. DRX doesn't quite have the same ceiling I think going for them.
- Unless T1 plays some of their backups and I can get a discount on them, I won't have much as they are nearly the most expensive squad on DK. They're a near-lock to win, but the upside isn't there as we saw last night with AFS and DWG cruise to easy wins.
- EDG and OMG (my upset pick of the night) are one and two in kill ceiling projections so if you buy into the OMG red side, or the playoff desperation mode EDG narratives those are some high upside stacks for your consideration.
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