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Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer to this point (sincere apologies to LoL, UFC, PGA, and NASCAR). That being said...MLB is coming back ON THURSDAY and I'll be writing some DFS content for that, so stay tuned!
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there (combined with a little statistical analysis, of course). I do lean FanDuel slightly, but I'll provide DraftKings prices and analysis as well. If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Lastly, keep an eye on MyKBOStats.com for updated weather projections.
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 5:30 (ET) on Wednesday, July 23, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg.)
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* WEATHER ALERT *
Every single game looks likely to be rained out. As we saw last night, if three games are called off, the entire slate is cancelled and DFS entry fees are voided. Because of this, I'm going to shorten the analysis and let you experienced KBO RotoBallers make the calls, if the games do play. Remember that in a rain-affected slate, you could have a lot of money leftover if few games are played and that's OK in that situation.
KBO DFS Pitchers
Aaron Brooks - KIA Starting P ($30 Fanduel, $10100 DraftKings)
Brooks has superb numbers in 2020 through 14 starts, and we shouldn't expect that to stop against the Hanwha Eagles in a game with the lowest projected total (8.5 runs). He's very expensive, but he easily has the best win-equity on the slate and the highest upside when you combine his 20.5% K% with the Eagles worst-in-the-KBO offense. Expect Brooks to handle Hanwha with ease - he's a great cash game play.
Geun-Wook Lee - SK Starting P ($20 FanDuel, $6800 DraftKings)
Lee was my favorite under-the-radar pitcher last night, and he is right there again for the 7/23 slate. SK is facing an absolute gas-can in Won-Sam Jang, so it is likely that Lee will have a lot of run support to work with. Additionally, Lee is 4-2 on the season with an above-average 18.3% K%. He holds the lowest batting average against on the slate at .209, and he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses outside of his 11.4% BB%. Now, Lotte has been hitting well and they don't strike out much, but, as noted by Eric Samulski in yesterday's article, Lotte has a ton of right-handed hitters and Lee excels in those situations. Start Lee with confidence and save a truckload of money for your hitter stacks.
Drew Rucinski - NC Starting P ($27 FanDuel, $10300 DraftKings)
Rucinski got his start pushed back to today, but he has the same plus matchup as he did yesterday as Samsung is not an imposing offense for him to face. He's 9-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 21.7% K%, and he's favored by 1.5 runs in a game with a 9.5-run projected total. Rucinski is a solid building block who could easily finish as the slate's top pitcher, you just need to decide against starting a similar pitcher in an easier matchup (Brooks vs. Hanwha).
Chan-Kyu Im - LG Starting P ($28 FanDuel, $9800 DraftKings)
Im is the fourth option on this slate, as he seems to be priced up too high considering how tough his matchup is and that his team is the underdog on the road. The appeal here is that he has a slate-leading 22.4% K% and is facing the strikeout-happy KT Wiz offense. The Wiz are explosive and rank first in the KBO in runs per game at home, so it's best to temper your expectations here. He's definitely a contrarian tournament play as most will take the savings with Lee or the safety with Brooks/Rucinski.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. A player's counting stats, .ISO (isolated slugging percentage), and production against the handedness of the opposing pitcher are all keys to selecting the correct hitters.
SK Wyverns
SK looks like they have the top matchup on the board if the slate actually runs. Lotte's Won-Sam Jang has been awful through four starts, compiling an 8.38 ERA, 6.47 FIP, 1.86 HR/9 (?!?!), 7.8% K%, 1.71 WHIP, and a .333 batting average against. Most of those marks rank as the worst on the 7/23 slate. A contrarian full-stack is in play, but mini-stacks and one-offs are the safer options with the Wyverns. Dong-Min Han ($8, $4400), Jeong Choi ($14, $5600), Jamie Romak ($12, $4800), and Ji-Hoon Choi ($6, $3000) are the top plays on SK.
Doosan Bears
The Bears are a top offense overall but it's important to note that they are significantly worse at home. Wise DFS players have taken this into account and adjusted by now, which should drive ownership down a bit. However, Doosan's matchup with Kiwoom's Seung-Ho Lee is just too good to ignore. Lee is 2-4 with a 6.12 ERA, and his underlying statistics suggest that he's just not a good pitcher. He'll give up the long ball, but we're just looking for a big number put on the board as Doosan's ballpark greatly suppresses homers. Look at Kun-Woo Park ($13, $4900), Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17, $5900), Jae-Il Oh ($14, $4300), Joo-Hwan Choi ($14, $3900), Kyoung-Min Hur ($10, $4600), and Soo-Bin Jung ($9, $2700) as the top options on Doosan.
Kia Tigers
Kia is a part of the lowest projected total game against Hanwha, but that doesn't mean they can't put up fantasy points against Chad Bell. Bell is 0-6 with a 7.96 ERA, 5.96 FIP, and a terrible 1.45 HR/9 rate. Preston Tucker ($17, $5800), Hyoung-Woo Choi ($15, $5000), Ji-Wan Na ($11, $4000), and Min-Sang Yoo ($7, $3200) are the Tigers' top plays.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- KT definitely has the juice to get to LG's Chan-Kyu Im and his 0.84 HR/9 rate. Attack the power bats in Mel Rojas Jr. ($18, $6500), Baek-Ho Kang ($14, $5500), Kyung-Su Park ($9, $3200), Jae-Gyun Hwang ($12, $5400), and Jung-Dae Bae ($13, $3400)
- A few NC bats could prove useful against Samsung's Tae-In Won. Won has a great 3.12 ERA, but his 5.01 FIP, 14.1% K%, and 0.95 HR/9 are statistics to go after. The Dinos top hitters are Aaron Altherr ($17, $5700), Euiji Yang ($12, $5700), Jin-Sung Kang ($12, $4200), Sung-Bum Na ($16, $5300), Hui-Dong Kwon ($11, $3400), and Sok-Min Park ($10, $4500)
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS lineup picks here at RotoBaller!
