Horse For The Course: PGA DFS - 3M Open Course History

Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 3M Open. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.

Welcome back PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! After multiple weeks of birdie-fest events, we witnessed a good ol' fashioned war of attrition at the Memorial, with young Jon Rahm emerging victorious in U.S. Open-like conditions.

With the win, Rahm now ascends to the top spot in the OWGR and puts a true signature win on his growing resume. While last week at Muirfield Village provided the toughest test we've seen on the PGA Tour this season, this week's event - the 3M Open - will pretty much be the polar opposite, as players should find scoring conditions extremely easy at TPC Twin Cities. Let's dive in!

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

3M Open Overview

We've been a little spoiled since the PGA Tour's restart, with almost every tournament featuring star-studded fields. This culminated in last week's "mini major" at Memorial. Unfortunately, after every long party, there eventually comes a sobering hangover. You might want to grab an aspirin and a cup of coffee before taking a look at this week's 3M field.

With a WGC event and the year's first major coming up over the next two weeks, we've seen the vast majority of the PGA Tour's elite opt to skip a trip to Minnesota. We're left with defending 3M Open champion Matt Wolff, who will be joined by Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and a returning-to-action Tommy Fleetwood. That's pretty much it...as the field drops off sharply after the handful of players at the top...and is comprised mostly of veteran journeyman types and up-and-comers. Like the Rocket Mortgage a few weeks ago, we only have one year's worth of course history to lean on, so we'll be forced to work with a much smaller sample size than we are accustomed to in this article.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

The Course: TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 - 7,458 Yards, Greens: Bentgrass 

This TPC Twin Cities layout was a longtime host of a PGA Tour Champions event, but finally got its shot at the big time last year. The Arnold Palmer layout (with tons of input from Tom Lehman) opened in 2000 and was long considered one of the best tracks on the Champions Tour schedule. The course was lengthened to just over 7,400 yards in prep of last year's inaugural 3M Open.

The addition of yardage didn't slow down the PGA Tour pros however, as we saw three players reach the 20-under par mark in 2019. There are 27 bodies of water in play on this course that takes advantage of its natural contours and rolling landscape, but players will be able to swing away with drivers as the fairways at TPC Twin Cities are VERY WIDE. This fact - coupled with the players that did well last year - makes me give a significant bump to driving distance and strokes gained: off the tee.

I will be targeting players in a similar fashion to last year; solid tee-to-green games, good ball striking, and the ability to MAKE BIRDIES IN BUNCHES. I'll also look for bombers with length off the tee and glance at Bentgrass putting splits.

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

• 2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)
• 2018: N/A
• 2017: N/A
• 2016: N/A
• 2015: N/A

 
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The Horse

Tony Finau

DraftKings: $10,900
FanDuel: $11,600
Notable Course History: T23 ('19)

Last week was a tough one for my guy Tony, as he seemingly had the Memorial in his grasp before basically collapsing down the stretch Saturday and totally going off the face of the world in difficult conditions Sunday. 

It’s always a bit of guesswork when trying to determine how a player will bounce back from disappointment, but there are some reasons to believe that a rebound is possible for Finau this week.

Finau has seen this layout, logging a top-25 in last year’s 3M, and it’s a perfect fit for him on paper. He leads this week’s field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds, while coming in 18th in Driving Distance over the same timeframe. I’m intrigued by Finau’s new “unleashed” swing with the driver that we saw a few times at the Memorial. This TPC Twin Cities layout and its extra-wide fairways should give Tony the greenlight to fire away with all he’s got. 

Sure, last weekend didn’t go the way Finau truthers wanted it to, but it is still the best we’ve seen him look since the restart and this week’s layout presents another great fit and opportunity for him to grab that elusive second win on the PGA Tour. 

The Ponies

Matthew Wolff

DraftKings: $9,700
FanDuel: $10,900
Notable Course History: Win ('19)

There's definitely a pattern of unpredictability with Matt Wolff, so he’s not what I would consider a “sure thing” type of play at this point in his career.

That said, we have seen some encouraging signs recently from the former OSU star. Wolff played extremely well at the Rocket Mortgage, but just couldn’t hold off a charging Bryson DeChambeau and he actually had a great ball striking week at the Memorial, ranking third in the elite field with 4.6 SG: OTT and also finishing +1.8 on approach shots, en route to a low-key T22.

He’s the defending champ this week, which might inflate his ownership a bit with the general public, but I’m willing to go back to the well with him at this year’s 3M. He’s an explosive player that brings some volatility to the table, but when he’s in form, he has tournament-winning upside.

Lucas Glover

DraftKings: $9,400
FanDuel: $10,600
Notable Course History: T7 ('19)

Glover isn’t going to blow us away with his distance off the tee, but he certainly stands out in another area that we’re targeting - ball striking. 

The veteran can best be described as “streaky” and he’s been in a very nice groove as of late. Glover had logged top-25s each time he teed it up since the restart before fading to a T38 in brutal conditions at the Memorial last week (though he still gained strokes in every major category).

This will be his second look at TPC Twin Cities - he recorded a T7 in last year’s 3M - and stands out in this weak field thanks to his sharp tee-to-green ability as of late. Sure...the price tag is kinda gross, but that's something we'll have to get used to this week, especially since Glover is what passes for nearly elite in this field. 

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Sam Burns

DraftKings: $8,500
FanDuel: $10,000
Notable Course History: T7 ('19)

In a week where distance and driving ability is one of our primary targets, Sam Burns immediately pops to mind. The big-hittin’ Cajun out of LSU is averaging 311.1 yards off the tee this season and leads this 3M field in driving distance over both long and short-term measurements. 

Burns is another one of these young stars that’s quickly establishing himself on the PGA Tour. Just 23-years-old, he’s notched six top-10s in his young career, including a T7 in this event last year.

His length helps him to devour Par-5s - he’s 23rd on the Tour in Par-5 Scoring Average - and long Par 4s. In addition to his ability to bomb it off the tee, Burns is also an excellent putter that ranks fourth in this field in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds and stands 27th on the PGA Tour in that category for the season, while also checking the "must be able to make tons of birdies" box that we're looking for this week.

Troy Merritt

DraftKings: $7,500
FanDuel: $9,100
Notable Course History: T7 ('19)

Troy Merritt played his high school and early college golf in Minnesota and the homecooking must have worked last year, as he soared to a T7 in the 2019 3M. 

Merritt heads home fresh off a missed cut at the Memorial, but he had flashed some form in his previous two starts - a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage and a T22 at the Workday. He gained over seven strokes on approach in that Workday start, but his ball striking numbers have been relatively poor for the majority of 2020.

In this watered down field, we’re probably not gonna be in love with every player that we roster, but you can lean on the hometown narrative in this spot with Merritt if you are searching for a mid-$7k option on DK.

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