RADIO
Damwon crushed again as good chalk, and Beryl continues to be a must-play from the support position as long as DWG keeps spamming Senna.
Is RW now good? Is FPX that bad? Who even knows anymore, the LPL summer of death continues. Tonight things don’t get that much easier as we have a few really tough matchups to breakdown and only one slam dunk on this slate (more on that in a minute).
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Friday, July 17, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM KT Rolster vs. Sandbox Gaming (-135)
A true pick-em match to start the morning in the LCK, and I'm fully ready to be dead wrong on this one. Well, it opened at a pick-em, but has subsequently moved to SBG being a -135 favorite. SBG just beat KT a week ago, and are on a hot streak since head coach Yamatocannon joined the team. KT has had another up and down couple of weeks missing support player Tusin to sickness and starting both top laners versus both DRX and SBG. Tusin is now back, and KT is looking to try to get themselves back to the playoffs.
SBG's hot streak is about to come to an end, and after watching their mind-bending series versus SeolHaeOne I think you could agree with me.
KT has had the better early game on the split leading in gold differential and first blood percentage, while SBG holds first turret advantage and rift herald %. KT has a slight edge in barons, and SBG in drakes and vision control. This match is very close statistically, but I've been looking for a spot to fade the Yamato buff since it started, and I think this is the one.
KT Rolster get themselves back together and take down SBG here with a 2-1 win. I think its perfectly reasonable to play both sides here, and I believe SBG is a more talented squad overall, especially on the top half of the map. I have this game as more fantasy-friendly than the T1-GenG matchup. KT projecting as second on the slate if the favorites win the other matches and SBG if they hold serve to be third just behind IG and ahead of T1. The value on either team will be enough for me to have some of both.
Top KT Plays
- Aiming - ADC
- Tusin - SUP
- Bono - JNG
Top SBG Plays
- OnFleek - JNG
- Fate - MID
- Summit - TOP
7:00 AM: T1 (-135) vs. GEN G
T1 jumps from the Telecom War into another instant classic match with GEN G. Gen G are playing much better than they were two weeks ago when we saw T1 take them down in the first round-robin. Still, much of that can be attributed to the level of their opponents since then as well. T1 has continued to struggle since their defeat of Gen G beating KT and SP while losing to Team Dynamics.
Statistically, these two teams are very close, except when it comes to history. T1 holds the lead in the series dating back to the Samsung Galaxy days, and they are up 10-2 in series vs. Gen G and 23-10 in the game score. That's a dominant number, especially since Gen G hasn't won a set from T1 since 2018. Always has to be an exception that proves the rule, and I think that's today. I'll take Gen G to buck a two-year trend and put T1 away. They owe them one (several actually), and T1 has a history of being poor in drafts and somehow finding a way to outplay late netting themselves the win. You can't keep doing that against top tier competition, which Gen G surely is and expecting to win. Of course, nothing is absolute in the world of lol esports, especially this split, and even though I like Gen G to pull the upset, playing T1 stacks to hedge is viable.
With this being the late set, we won't know where T1 is going in the jungle or Gen G at support. I would guess that it will be Cuzz for T1 and Life for Gen G if you're willing to risk it in tournaments. I don't know how much of this match I'll have in either direction as it is the morning's lowest projected. T1 players in a 2-0 sweep two weeks ago barely averaged over a point per dollar.
Top GEN G Plays
- Ruler - ADC
- Clid - JNG
- BDD - MID
- Rascal - TOP
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Bilibili Gaming (-250) vs. Dominus Esports
BLG is currently the biggest favorite on the slate, and this is how you say on the internet the worst reality. Draftkings has them priced as such, and I don't know how I feel about it. FanDuel has them fourth across the board that I can get behind that.
Everyone knows I love Meteor and BLG, and I do have some stats to back this up. We saw BLG beat a better version of this DMO squad back in spring, and I think BLG is a mid-tier team in the LPL, while DMO is a bottom feeder for sure. Since Meteor’s return, BLG has advantages across the board over this DMO squad. They have a 71% first blood along with 57% first turret compared to 56% and 38% for DMO, so those are significant advantages. BLG also lead in gold at fifteen minutes, dragons, barons, and vision score.
I like BLG here likely in a 2-1, but I don't mind the idea of picking up some DMO shares since they are uber cheap and will be low owned. This is the match of the night from a fantasy perspective, though. BLG project for the most kills and DMO the third most overall in wins. It also looks like BLG will be the highest owned team on the slate, and if that's going to be the case, we need to fire up some DMO stacks in GPPs. I LOVE BLG and will have tons, but if this summer split has taught me anything its that I need to hedge these high upside spots. Most kills, wild and wooly, two bad teams, one 30% owned, the other under 10%, and you've got to shoot that shot.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG
- Fofo - MID
- Wings - ADC
- Xinmo - SUP
Top DMO Plays:
- Xiaopeng - JNG
- Chelizi - TOP
- Twila - MID
- Xubin - ADC
7:00 AM: Invictus Gaming (-200) vs. Royal Never Give Up
RNG flow chart is not in effect today, and I can't wait for IG to blow them up today. We have seen IG collect themselves after a disastrous showing at the season cup, and they have taken that up another notch following the return of Baolan to the starting lineup. They have returned to some of their more aggressive past play, and with patch 10.14 in effect, I think we'll see Bao on Alistar. The cow has suited him well in the past, ask Fnatic.
With Baolan back, IG is nearly matching RNG in first blood rate 60% to 63%. They have found some of their signature aggression, and I expect that to continue. Who knows with the changes in patch 10.14, and we might even see theshy on Riven. IG also has the edge in drakes and barons, while RNG holds the vision advantage. RNG was handily losing both games to EDG in their last series until EDG punted both of them back to RNG, allowing the later to pick up the wins. IG has had it easy lately beating up on LNG and Estar in their last two series wins, and trolling BLG the set before by playing all three support players one game each.
Invictus should win this going away, and my only concern is they are always prone to taking matches off, and they will face V5 on a quick turnaround playing again on Monday morning. I like IG 2-1, but will play some RNG lineups in case IG throw this one away to test things out for their upcoming showdown with V5. RNG does have the second highest projection on the slate if they win as IG is a squad that doesn't let up even when behind. RNG being a more calculated team they only average just over 13 deaths in their losses which should limit IG's upside.
Top IG Plays:
- Baolan - SUP (86.5% kill participation since his return)
- Ning - JNG
- Puff - ADC
- Rookie - MID
- Theshy - TOP
Summary
- So I think I successfully touted every team on the slate today, but if you look at the Vegas odds all these matches are pretty tight. There are also some good reasons to look at both sides in many of these matches.
- DMO and RNG have the same reasoning, and both have tremendous upside being second and third in overall projection if they do pull off the win. Add to that BLG and IG should be the highest owned teams on the slate, and you're also getting high leverage on the field.
- T1 and Gen G is a dog or pass for me as the playoff-type atmosphere in this one will curtail fantasy production. T1 is the slowest team in the league, so we're not starting with a high projection.
- SBG is the fav, and I expect that line to move further yet in their favor before lock. They're a great value and good to pair with either IG or BLG for cash, or an LPL dog for GPPs. I can't get on board with chalky SBG as I've been waiting to fade them since the Yamato hype began. I started last time out with Seolhaeon, but we know how that ended.
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