PGA Betting Advice - Memorial

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the Memorial

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (83-41-8), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Head-To-Head Selection

Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

We have in front of us two players going in opposite directions since the restart. Lucas Glover has competed in four of the five events, finishing no worse than a share of 23rd place at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Scottie Scheffler, on the other hand, has yet to finish better than 55th place in his four starts and has missed three cuts in a row.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I can't quite pinpoint what is going wrong with Scheffler's game since golf has come back into the limelight, but there is no arguing that his upside far surpasses that of Glover. Scheffler does lose some of his built-in edge with the venue expected to mitigate his OTT prowess in the second week at Muirfield Village, but it is not as if Glover doesn't have potential landmines around the green of his own that he will have to endure. I believe we have a four percent edge currently in terms of implied probability and would be fine playing this up to -130.

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

Sungjae Im +10o over Billy Horschel -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

The three-month layoff has hurt Sungjae Im more than perhaps any player on tour, but it is important to keep in mind that his lack of results has helped to push him into a skill territory beneath his level of play. Billy Horschel is receiving a slight boost in terms of his price after his share of seventh at the venue just a week ago, but there are some concerns that his poor par-five and approach numbers will catch up to him in a week that will require second-shot success. Horschel is ranked just 85th in my model compared to the field with his irons and ranks outside the top-70 in scrambling, sand save percentage and par-five birdie or better.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

It is difficult to trust Im at this moment. Four straight weeks of losing strokes with his irons should signify something is potentially wrong, but I am willing to go with my math on this wager. I have Im properly priced at -120 over Horschel, giving us about a four percent edge on this head-to-head bet.

1.03 Units to Win 1.00

Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter -115

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

A lot seems to have been forgotten about Adam Hadwin's round last weekend at the Workday Charity Open. The Canadian boosted out to a quick start to jump into second place after round one but faltered down the stretch to post a somewhat disappointing 35th place showing. It is important to remember that while Ian Poulter's fifth-place showing was impressive, there are bogey avoidance issues that could come into play at a more difficult Muirfield Village in week two.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Hadwin is a pretty producer across the board for me in my model, but it doesn't negate the shaky past he has had at the venue. An MDF finish in 2018 to go along with a missed cut in 2017 will loom as something that makes me somewhat leery, but there should still be enough safety there to overcome the fear of a missed cut.

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners -140

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

This is more of a number grab than anything else. I'm not necessarily in the market to fade Corey Conners from a statistical standpoint, but I do believe the casino has the wrong man favorite for this matchup. I have Lowry winning this contest slightly over 51% of the time, providing us with a six percent win percentage edge at his +120 number. I believe there is a chance that this price could drift more in our favor before Thursday, but I would keep an eye on it over the next few days

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

As mentioned above, Conners isn't someone I am actively looking to take on from a statistical standpoint. The Canadian is one of the premier players in the world tee to green and is arguably the best ball-striker in the world. The 28-year-old could find trouble if his short game does come into play at Muirfield Village, but there is upside for him to find success if he can stay out of the rough. For what it is worth, this wager has my largest disparity in pricing of anything on the board, but we are still looking at roughly a 50/50 outcome.

0.88 Units to Win 1.06

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (11-6-2)

+4.58 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-11-0 (+4.91 Units)

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
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