RADIO
I did end up going back to some VG on Friday AM, and it was a good thing too. We all as DFS players and bettors have special places in our heart for those teams and players that have won for us in the past, as well as special places in hell for those that have burned us.
Looking past those feelings is important as every day is a new day with new challenges and matchups. The beauty of DFS is supposed to be that we have a clean slate to start over and we have to try to keep our biases and hard feelings from affecting our logic and reason when making our next set of decisions.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, July 4th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Damwon Gaming (-800) vs. Hanawa Life Esports
Both matches in the LCK tonight look like smooth sweeps for the favorites. First, we've got Damwon taking on HLE; while you could make a case that Viper and Lehends can go two versus eight with Aphelios, I doubt that we'll see them even get a chance. DWG is so much better early; it's not even funny; outside of similar first blood numbers, every other early game metric is totally in DWG's favor. Damwon's first turret rate is 91% to HLE's 25%, and Damwon is the first to raze all the outer turrets in every game they have played so far this year. Gold differential at 15 minutes is crazy DWG sit at 2700 while HLE is a cool negative 1500 gold.
Imagine playing from a 4200 gold deficit and trying to do anything at all regardless of champions. Also, we've seen Damwon running out mage champion bot lanes with Beryl on Pantheon support to put early pressure on the type of late-game carry champions that we're likely to see out of HLE. The fact that this line is only -800 right now is disturbing I'd say -1200 is more likely where we should see it. Long way around to telling you DWG sweep and might be the safest pick on the slate.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Beryl - SUP
- Canyon - JNG
- Ghost - ADC
7:00 AM: Team Dynamics (-280) vs. Sandbox Gaming
Game two on the LCK side seems similarly cut and dried to game one. Team Dynamics the newly promoted upstarts have found some success in their opening LCK campaign. We saw these two teams match up in the promotion tournament, where TD took a 2-0 victory away from SBG. SBG are also winless in summer thus far. They have also played a murderers row of a schedule facing T1, DWG, DRX, Gen G, and AFS, so it would stand to reason they would look awful against that level of competition.
Team Dynamics have shown a lot of intelligence and coordination thus far in summer. The Heimerdinger ADC game versus DRX was a brilliant adaptation to being outgunned from a talent aspect. It nearly netted them a win versus a vastly more talented squad. We would need to see Yamatocannon pull something similar out of his stylish bag of tricks to get SBG over the top here, and because I think that maybe likely I'll give them a game. TD take this one 2-1, but I will consider the idea that YC pulls out all the stops and his team steps up now that he is fully in the country and out of quarantine.
Top TD Plays
- Rich - TOP
- Kuzan - MID
- Beyond - JNG
- Team Dynamics Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Edward Gaming (-385)
It seems like whenever I get emotionally attached to a team, they can't help but lose (See also LGD). Whenever I try to find a crazy LPL upset, I'm left out in the cold while everyone else laughs all the way to the bank.
Malmanger curse notwithstanding, I like RW here to pull the next rug out from under EDG. EDG seems to have their curse this year. All spring, they battled with people bouncing in and out of the lineup, and just when you thought COVID was over, Hope misses several games with a partially collapsed lung.
EDG did well enough with BBD in his place, but there will likely be an adjustment with Hope returning. RW is on a mission to win their first series in the LPL in summer, and they are taking it so seriously that they have run out the same lineup in two straight. No swapping, no-nonsense, just letting the team grow after finally deciding on a starting five. I like that from them, along with the progression we've seen. They took a game off JDG, they narrowly lost vs. OMG, and now they get an EDG squad that has failed against DMO and swapped ADCs only to now trade back. Oh and since I'm sipping all this narrative street kool-aid today how about the fact that HARO was on EDG and was once the catalyst to their worlds run in 2018. To recap, RW is running hot playing their best league in a year, and they face a struggling squad that has swapped ADCs again. I also liked RW's mental aspect coming back from a blowout loss in game one with OMG to make a series out of it.
Back in the real world, EDG are a big favorite here and Vegas didn't build all those casinos by being dummies. I have EDG with the highest projection for kills on the slate, and if you watched the first game of RE vs. OMG, you saw exactly why. When RW runs bad, it gets ugly in a hurry. EDG has advantages in every significant statistical category and should be able to win this easily. Either way you slice it, I think this is a premium spot to target.
Top RW Plays:
- Haro - JNG
- Ruby - MID
- Holder - TOP
- Ley - SUP (sub risk, but if you're playing RW I know you aint scared)
Top EDG Plays:
- Scout - MID
- JieJie - JNG (sub risk)
- Aodi - TOP
- Hope - ADC
7:00 AM: Invictus Gaming vs. Jingdong Gaming (-140)
JDG has won three of the last four from IG, and although IG is one of the dumbest teams on the planet, they are also one of the most talented. You'll be hard-pressed to find another organization with this level of success versus the former world champions. I have this game with the second-highest kill projection on the day just behind the RW/EDG series.
Invictus I think are very live here, we just saw them play an awful series in which they played all three of their support players one in each game. Hopefully, that got all the trolling out of their system. I think we've seen Kanavi and JDG, in general, take a step back from their form in the spring split, and IG in their herky-jerky way have taken a step or two even forward from their play in the spring split. IG has forged an identity of sorts with their newfound focus on dragons, which gives them a secondary win condition to Rookie outplaying every team fight. His coordination with Ning has led IG to improve their early game skirmishes and gotten them back on track with their old style. They are winning early and winning hard. They are third in the gold differential league at fifteen minutes and sit fourth in CSM, right behind JDG.
JDG also rely on their strong laners to create gold advantages for them in the early game that they snowball through mid and into a win. One big reason that JDG has been so successful versus IG in the past is that Zoom can lane against theshy very well. This parity sets them up on equal footing when it comes time for crucial mid-game fights where IG usually exploit their solo lanes advantages. Rookie should still be able to forge ahead of Yagao in the mid especially considering that Kanavi has a lower KP% than does Ning this split.
IG have got their mid jungle duo working together again. The bot lane matchup is even as well, and even tho IG ask theirs to do less than does JDG. Puff is frequently left to accumulate farm while everyone else is off skirmishing early. As you can likely guess, I like Invictus here, which shouldn't be a surprise. They have been up and down like always, but I believe they'll be up for this after being embarrassed at the hands of JDG in the spring. JDG has taken a step back from their level of coordination and sharp play they displayed in the spring, but they are the defending champs and favorites. To be the man, you've got to beat the man, and right now, JDG is the man and IG are not. I like IG, but both sides are in play for Saturday.
Top IG Plays:
- Ning - JNG
- Rookie - MID
- Puff - ADC
- theshy - TOP
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC
- LvMao - SUP
- Zoom - TOP
- Kanavi - JNG
Summary
- Damwon is too expensive on FD in particular, where they are the most costly team across the board. On DK they are more reasonable, and I can see myself getting more of them there.
- I feel like I say it every day, but watching these betting lines is one of the best clues to ownership percentages. The JDG/IG game interests me the most today, and if the betting line moves I think the DFS ownership will follow.
- The LPL games are my highest projected again, and I'll be prioritizing them in my builds today. EDG and JDG are approaching 20 kills in a win with DWG struggling to get over 17.
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