Fantasy Football Burning Questions for 2020: NFC North

The King’s new series on hot fantasy football topics for the 2020 season focuses on separate divisions in each edition. We will examine some of the biggest burning questions per team as you plan for your upcoming drafts.

In this installment, we tackle some significant fantasy issues in the NFC North. There continue to be offensive concerns in Chicago, and we examine an RB battle in Detroit, a former superstar's outlook in Green Bay, and a very enticing standout pick in Minnesota.

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Chicago Bears: Will David Montgomery take a step forward?

Entering his rookie season, there was a lot of fantasy optimism surrounding David Montgomery. Those who backed him the most believed he would be a considerable upgrade over the departed Jordan Howard. He was expected to take advantage of an opportunity to be the lead runner for Chicago and possibly become a potential centerpiece of the Bears offense.

The Bears offense, however, mainly bogged down by shaky QB play, ranked 29^th in the league and was second-worst in the NFC. Montgomery faced stacked boxes less than 20 percent of the time, so extra defensive attention was not the issue. He only saw more than 70 percent of the snaps twice last season and finished with 82 more snaps than Tarik Cohen. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry and rushed for 85 yards three times. Montgomery caught more than three passes twice. He did not improve as games wore on, as Montgomery averaged 2.9 YPC after his 10^th attempt in games. Montgomery was not effective when the Bears offense hit the red zone, as he averaged 1.9 YPC inside the 20-yard line. He did not provide the expected boost.

Montgomery did play behind a disappointing offensive line that ranked 25^th in the league. That unit returns mostly intact even though there was a change in coaches. Chicago did not do much of note to improve the offense in the offseason, other than to add Nick Foles, who has never succeeded outside Philadelphia, and declining TE Jimmy Graham.

The outlook for Montgomery and the Bears is pretty apparent. Unless Mitchell Trubisky suddenly morphs into a quality starting QB, or Foles pretends he is back in Philly, there is not much reason for optimism on a stagnant offense that has not been adequately fixed. Montgomery has an ADP of 49 overall, which is fair when you consider there is not much-perceived upside. He may get a decent amount of touches, but there cannot be much confidence in him performing at a fantasy RB2 level. Montgomery is a pick you settle for when you wait too long to grab a RB, or want to grab a flex with a good amount of volume. These look like the same Bears from last year, and Montgomery may not stir much fantasy hope this year, either. You cannot feel too good about landing him as a starter.

Detroit Lions: Can D’Andre Swift emerge as a fantasy starter in his rookie season?

The Lions have been trying to establish a reliable running attack, but Kerryon Johnson has not proved to be dependable enough. Johnson has looked like the answer at the position when he has played, as he has rushed for 1,044 yards on just 231 attempts in his first two pro seasons, averaging 4.5 YPC. But he has missed 14 games in those two campaigns, landing on injured reserve in each year with knee issues.

Swift is an elusive and instinctive runner with impressive speed. He has good vision, patience and can catch passes out of the backfield. He does come from a Georgia program where he shared carries, and he may have to work on his pass protection. From a pure talent perspective, Swift has the look of an eventual complete and lead RB. But he is used to working in a timeshare and that is the likely scenario when Johnson is healthy. Having two quality RBs that can challenge defenses keeps defenses off balance and ensures Johnson is not exposed to possible injuries quite as much. It’s a good situation for the Lions and one that will lead to some fantasy anxiety.

Swift will be the preferred fantasy selection of the two, as he figures to be more durable and is a strong presence near the goal line. Bo Scarbrough, who was a pleasant surprise for Detroit late last year, could steal some short-yardage touches, though. He does figure to be more of a depth piece, and could be the change of pacer if Johnson gets injured again. Swift should be a flex type when Johnson plays. However, if and when Johnson misses more time, Swift could become the clear No. 1 RB for the Lions. That will be a good spot to be in, as a healthy Matthew Stafford can help the offense establish optimum balance. Detroit may have one of the more underrated offenses heading into 2020.

Both RBs are far apart in terms of ADPs, with Swift at 80 overall and Johnson at 76. That region is acceptable for Swift, who does have a fantasy RB3 ceiling. There is considerable upside in the event of another Johnson health issue. Otherwise, he should at least be a quality flex streamer. Swift will have some starting appeal for sure in 2020. He just will not be a lineup lock while Johnson is in the picture in any given week. Johnson is being slightly overdrafted in that range, and you should take Swift first when you consider that he was drafted by the Lions because they cannot count on Johnson.

Is Aaron Rodgers still a fantasy QB1?

It’s clear that Rodgers is no longer an elite fantasy QB. He has not finished in the top-five at the position, when he led all scorers. He did log a respectable finish in 2019, as QB10. He was 14^th in points per game at QB (17.6). The TD production has certainly declined since the ’16 season. In the last two years that he has not missed any games, he has thrown 25 and 26 scoring passes, after throwing 109 in three seasons from 2014 to 2016.

Aaron Rodgers' TD passes by season as a starter. 

The Packers became more of a goal-line area force in the running game, as Aaron Jones led the NFL with 16 rushing TDs. In Matt LaFleur’s debut season, he no longer treated the Packers RBs as afterthoughts, In 2018 under Mike McCarthy, the Packers were last in the NFL in rushing attempts with 333. In 2019 they ran the ball 411 times. LaFleur balanced the offense more, which can protect Rodgers from getting harassed as frequently as he used to be. Rodgers was sacked 13 fewer times in 2019 than he was in 2018, and he was hurried 57 times last year as compared to 90 times in the previous season.

The increased emphasis on the run game makes the Green Bay offense more predictable, yet it stifles Rodgers’ fantasy upside. Gone are the days when he will throw well over 30 TD passes. In 2019, he also threw for 440 fewer yards than he did in 2018. He had two games with more than one TD pass from Weeks 9 to 17 with no 300-yard outings during that span until the season finale. It is also well established among fantasy leaguers that outside of Davante Adams, the Packers receiving crew is very shaky. The unproven Allen Lazard will battle the statue-like Devin Funchess for the second WR job.

This is a new era in Green Bay, where Rodgers does not have to carry the offense anymore. It’s going to stay that way after the Packers won 13 games last year, the second-highest total in the Rodgers era. Green Bay reached the NFC Championship Game after a two-year absence from the postseason. Rodgers’ ADP is 77, as the ninth QB off the board. I have him ranked just outside the Top 12, though. Those who are ranked ahead of Rodgers: Jackson, Mahomes, Prescott, Wilson, Murray, Watson, Allen, Ryan, Brees, Stafford, Wentz and Brady.

I would not be surprised to see Ben Roethlisberger outproduce Rodgers, too. The Pack has found a successful formula for winning already under their new head coach, and it caps Rodgers’ upside, as does his group of pass-catchers.  I would be more comfortable targeting Rodgers as a high-end fantasy QB2 in 2020 instead of taking him in the Top 10 at the position.

Minnesota Vikings: Where should Dalvin Cook be drafted?

There is no question Cook is an electrifying and versatile RB who can perform at elite fantasy levels when he is healthy enough to play. He ranked second at RB in Fantasy Points Per Game last year (20.9). In 2019 he finally showed what sorts of impressive numbers he could put up over close to a full campaign. Cook accumulated over 1,650 yards from scrimmage and scored 13 rushing TDs while catching 53 passes.  He finished sixth overall at RB despite missing two games.

A chest injury curtailed Cook’s production down the stretch, though, and ultimately forced him to miss the all-important Week 16 in fantasy football. After suffering the injury in Week 10, Cook rushed for a total of 144 yards from Weeks 11 through 15. He totaled 95 receiving yards during that span. He did rush for three TDs in that period, but Cook was an obvious disappointment when fantasy players needed him the most.

Availability may continue to be an issue with Cook, so you are gambling if you take him at his current ADP of fourth overall. There is no more prominent risk/reward player in fantasy football than Cook. He could boost your team to a championship, or he could make you regret using a first-rounder on him. I have been advised by injury analysts that even if Cook avoids major health issues, he will always be susceptible to minor problems because of his well-documented history of physical setbacks.

Because of the uncertainty surrounding Cook’s health on an annual basis, I will not be spending a top-five overall pick on him. I have McCaffery, Barkley, Elliott, Kamara, Henry and Mixon ahead of him for sure. I would also endorse taking Michael Thomas before Cook and I can get behind Davante Adams before Cook, too. Personally, I would take also Lamar Jackson over Cook.  Many will disagree there. I would not take him earlier than seventh, and ideally for me, toward the end of the first round. Cook can outplay everyone at the position if he avoids health issues, but it’s enough of a significant “if” to consider other more reliable top choices ahead of him.

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