RADIO
No hemming and hawing today, and continued apologies about yesterday. I tried to let everyone know my shift in thinking about BLG late in the day but I’m aware many of you people sleep normal hours. My man Meteor is back and BLG is an entirely different team with him in the lineup, remember that going forward.
I’m so over Royal Never Give Up as favorites it's not even funny. But it’s time to move on. There are some premium matches on today's slate, and I hope I can provide you all with some premium analysis to start your lol research off on the right foot.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, July 1st, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Damwon Gaming vs. T1 (-150)
T1 and DWG kick off the slate with a premium LCK matchup. It will be particularly interesting in the way these two match up. T1 play around their bot lane, with Teddy becoming the leading carry threat on the team. DWG has built a lot of success this split by countering what most organizations want to do bot. Mostly revolving around the dreaded Aphelios, DWG has hard countered it with early pressure, and off-meta picks to punish the OP champion before reaching 200 years.
The trouble is that T1 is finding a lot of success without running Aphelios at all. Instead, relying on their own early pressure from Kallista. We saw Gen G pilot the Kallista pick in both of their wins over DWG last week, and I would look for T1 to go a similar route. The stats for both teams are very close, with DWG being better early and T1 being better late. I like T1 here by a hair, as I still feel like part of DWG good start is in their opponents being subpar.
However, DWG has an excellent history versus T1, and I attribute that to their aggressive style with which T1 has trouble. So far this split, T1 has already lost to DRX, who is another dynamic team. Highlighting this struggle is T1 vs. DWG, which DWG leads 6-3 series and 13-10 game scores. T1 versus Dragon X, who plays a similar style, shows T1 7-6 in sets and 18-15 in the game score. Compare those two with T1's record versus Gen G another top team, but one that plays more standard league of legends. T1 has owned Gen G winning 9-3 in series with a 21-12 game score. With that kind of history behind it taking DWG as an upset special here is a good idea too, with the matchup being very close across the board both sites have the player priced down. DWG will push the pace making both teams very viable of Wednesday morning.
Top T1 Plays
- Teddy - ADC
- Effort - SUP
- Canna - TOP
- T1 Team
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Beryl - SUP
- Canyon - JNG
- DWG Team
7:00 AM: Sandbox Gaming vs. Gen G (-1000)
Gen G might be my favorite play on the slate for Wednesday. They have accelerated their pace in the summer split, and that has made them more fantasy relevant. Pair that up with SBG, who has been a disaster in the summer split, and have never been afraid to fight, and we have a recipe for success. Gen G have every statistical advantage in this game, especially early, SBG has an average gold differential at 15 minutes of nearly -2100. That's right, their average gold at fifteen minutes is a horrendous -2100, and that's not starting on the right foot. We could see Gen G napping a bit here with a big match versus T1 coming up on Friday, but I doubt they lose this. Gen G are 6-0 game score their last three series with this Sandbox squad. I like them to keep that streak alive and sweep this matchup.
Top Gen Plays
- Ruler - ADC
- Rascal - TOP
- Clid - JNG
- Gen G Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: DMO vs. Invictus (-2000)
Dominus surprised us all versus EDG on Monday morning, and will be looking to do it again. Invictus are starting to hit their stride in the summer split, showing fairly well vs. LGD and picking up the 2-1 win over FPX. I don't think that we will see that again. IG has a lower first blood percentage than does DMO, but they have better first turret, better herald %, better drake %, better baron %, and better vision. With an advantage in almost every major statistical category and are a vastly more talented squad, I feel safe calling this one quickly and early in a 2-0 IG sweep. We could see this a bit of a sandwich spot for IG, as they will face JDG on Saturday, and DMO may catch them napping as they did EDG.
When the action kicks off, we'll see that the Invictus talent gap will be too much. IG has also found a bit of an identity by adding dragon priority, and it gives them a late-game win condition with soul/elder. Ig has slowed down along with this dragon focus in the summer split, and I don't know if that new slower pace will make them worth their price. Predicting where their production will fall is a bit sketchy outside of Rookie since they don't have very high kill participation.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID
- Ning - JNG
- Theshy - TOP
7:00 AM: SNG vs. LGD (-225)
These two teams are relatively similar in that they rely on their ADC to carry their games in the late game, and they invest a lot of resources into that. The trouble for the side of SNG is that LGD has better talent around their ADC. With Peanut leading the way early, LGD has nearly double the first blood percentage to that of Suning. Both teams are focusing on the bot side of the map, but we see that LGD has a better dragon percentage. SNG does have a decided advantage in vision numbers, but we see that LGD has better baron numbers as well. LGD should have the lead early, along with better objective numbers, and the superior talent level. I like LGD to win this match 2-1, and even without the bonus, they could be top scorers. Unfortunately, DraftKings has adjusted their pricing accordingly and have Kramer, and Peanut priced up. FD meanwhile has them steadily priced third highest across the board, and I'd look to take advantage of that.
Top LDG Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
- Angel - MID
Summary
- I like T1 over DWG by a hair, but the history on the DWG side makes them a top GPP play. They have a great chance to win that set and pair nicely with any of the other favorites. Or you can just take SNG and watch the world burn.
- LGD pricing on FD is too nice to ignore; you can build some decent lineups from only favorites over on that site thanks to the non-dynamic pricing.
- This is a great slate, and my early projections show that the kills should be closer than you would think. LCK has stepped up their pace for the summer split, and that leaves us with lots of options to be the top scorers.
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