LEC DFS Picks for 6/13/20 - FanDuel, DraftKings League of Legends Daily Fantasy

Dan Palyo's League of Leagues (LoL) analysis and LEC DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings on 6/13/20. He discusses the LEC LoL slates and his top targets.

Saturday brings us day two of the opening weekend of the LEC Summer split and our continued coverage of League of Legends DFS for FanDuel and DraftKings. Today, I am focusing on the 5-game LEC slate that has contests available on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The schedule for LEC is set up really nicely with 5-gamers on every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday this summer. 

Full disclosure here, I am our Esports editor here at Rotoballer and while I have been grinding LOL, CSGO, and COD slates all spring long I will admit that I am not an Esports native. When the NBA and other leagues shut down, I wanted to continue to play DFS on a daily basis and so I have become an avid Esports player out of necessity. I do watch a lot of the matches and I have taken the time to study the different approaches that teams take in-game and which stats we can use to make educated predictions as to who will win and score well. I wouldn't call myself a LOL expert, but I am a DFS expert and I understand how to play and win.

As a quick refresher, the LEC is the European league and they play only single-game best of one matches (while LPL and LCK play best of three series). There are some new faces on new teams as well as some returning powerhouses will their full rosters intact and today represents a fresh start for everyone as the LEC kicks off its summer split. Today we'll be bringing on our top League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for all the LEC slates on Saturday, June 13th, 2020 at 11:00 AM. Follow me on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and definitely make sure you're following my LOL mentor and our RotoBaller lead ESports analyst @Mr_Malmanger, too!

League of Legends DFS Basics

Since LEC contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.

1. Once a match starts, anything can happen. Usually, the better teams are very consistent. Be sure to check the player pool carefully and try to craft a roster of players who have been playing recently or do not have listed backups. 
2.  Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is paramount. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 or 4-2-1 are becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
3. In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
4. Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring.  Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
5. Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID.  Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP.  Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.

FCS vs. SK Gaming (-125): DFS Targets

I am going to try not to overreact to the first set of games yesterday, but if you watched these matches you would have to come away disappointed in the performance of a young Schalke team and pretty impressed with the scrappy 11-11 win that SK put up against Origen.  Because FCS lost yesterday and SK won we saw the odds in this one flip as FCS was -200 just yesterday and are now slight underdogs. They played really tentative and let Vitality take control of that game yesterday and they certainly will be in trouble in this one if they do that again as SK looked much improved. 

I think we see SK become a popular play based on recency bias so be careful here with what could be bad chalk. I still like them over FCS in this one, but this match could be very low scoring as neither team tends to put up many kills in wins. ZeZe and Crownshot led the way for SK yesterday and are the two SK pieces I would build around. I would say run some Schalke for leverage but I just can't get behind them based on how poorly they played against a lower-tier team like Vitality.

Fave SK Plays: ZaZee, Crownshot

Rogue vs. Misfits (-120): DFS Targets

Here we have another match where the odds have flipped in the last 24 hours. The line has moved in favor of Misfits and they are now slight favorites. Rogue won a very uneventful 8-0 match against exceL yesterday and none of their players scored well (other than the team slot). Meanwhile, Misfits gave Fnatic everything they could handle before finally dropping their match. Kobbe's presence was felt in a big way as he put up eight kills and four assist and Misfits racked up 15 kills against one of the top teams in the league. I like them to beat Rogue here, but I don't love them for DFS based on the slow style of play that we have seen from Rogue (they had the second-fewest deaths per game last split). Kobbe is still underpriced though and is firmly on my radar as a one-off.

Fave Misfits Plays: Kobbe, Febiven

MAD (-265) vs. exceL: DFS Targets

The MAD Lions were the first victim of G2 on Friday, as they got handled by the defending champs. They should be able to take out their frustrations on an inferior exceL team here. Poor exceL couldn't manage a single kill on Friday against Rogue and they had the second-most deaths per game last split which sets up nicely for MAD here to bounce back in a big way. MAD is one of those teams that is just a tier below G2 and Fnatic but they can definitely dominate the lower-tier teams. They got some serious price hikes on DraftKings but are very playable on FD and make for one of my favorite GPP stacks.

Fave MAD Plays: Carzzy, ShadoW, Humanoid , Orome

Fnatic (-450) vs. Vitality: DFS Targets

Fnatic got off to a bit of rocky start yesterday but played really well late in the game to surge back to a win over an improved Misfits team. They are the biggest favorite on today's slate and they got major price hikes on both sites that go along with that distinction. Vitality looked much better with their new lineup in a solid win against FCS on Friday, but I wouldn't read too much into that as I think it was also just as much of case as Schalke not being very good. Fnatic should handle them here and while using statistics from last season probably isn't ideal with how many new players are in the Vitality lineup, they did lead the LEC is deaths per game at nearly 16 while Fnatic was second behind G2 at kills per game right around 16, too. 

Fave Fnatic Plays: Rekkles, Selfmade, Hylassing, Bwipo, Nemesis (in that order)

G2 (-300) vs. Origen: DFS Targets 

Another split and perhaps another G2 title? The defending champs looked strong in a 22-5 romp of MAD in their first match and will have another solid team to contend with in Origen today. I was very surprised to see Origen lose to SK as -750 favorites on Friday, but luckily I faded them anyway. Perkz looked damn good back at ADC for G2 and posted a silly nine kill, nine assist game with zero deaths. It's clear that he is going to thrive there and it looked like his teammates were feeding him kills on Friday. 

Usually, I would avoid teams against Origen due to their slow playing style, but G2 has shown they can rack up kills against anyone and posted 20+ kills in each of their wins against Origen in the spring playoffs (they won the series 3-1). The prices on G2 are tasty here compared to Fnatic on FanDuel and they could be a little lower owned, so I'm going to load up on them in tournaments. Especially with how vulnerable Origen looked against a feisty SK squad on Friday.

Fave G2 Plays: Perkz, Caps, Jankos, Wunder, Mikyz

Summary

1. Fnatic is the biggest favorite and has the potential for a dominant outing with high kill numbers, get some exposure.
2. Never, ever, ever fade G2 - even if they have a tough matchup on paper.
3. Misfits and MAD are solid second-tier teams in the LEC that have very winnable matchups and make for compelling GPP stacks, MAD especially.

Check back throughout the weekend as we'll publish more Esports League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks at RotoBaller.

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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020