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Dan Fornek looks at second-year NFL running backs who struggled as rookies and will be fantasy football busts again in 2020. These are players to avoid in fantasy drafts.
One of the more difficult things to do in fantasy football is to predict player fluctuation every year. For every player who you can depend on each season (like Ezekiel Elliott), there is another that is extremely productive seemingly out of nowhere (DeVante Parker). The ability to avoid potential landmines is almost more important than the ability to identify talent.
This is even more true when it comes to rookies going into their second season. The second year in the league is typically when many young players take a massive leap, especially players that fail to truly launch their first year. Plenty of factors can influence how productive a player is his rookie season and situations can change fluidly.
Winning in fantasy can come down to something as simple as identifying players that were highly thought of as rookies that have that explosive upside, or lack thereof, heading into their second season. In this article, you will find three second year running backs who unfortunately lack that upside heading into the 2020 season.
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Benny Snell Jr. - Pittsburgh Steelers
Of the names on this list, Benny Snell Jr. produced the most successful rookie season. In 13 games, the Kentucky product rushed the ball 108 times for 426 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. He also added three receptions on four targets for 23 yards. These stats allowed him to compile 54.9 PPR points, good for a finish as RB59. While the surface numbers seem to suggest a solid first season, there are plenty of reasons to believe Snell Jr. will fail to take the necessary next step to fantasy viability in his second season.
A majority of Benny Snell Jr’s production in 2019 came due to the injury to James Conner during the season. In weeks 1-8, Snell Jr. averaged just 14% of the team’s snaps on offense and generated 118 yards on 28 attempts. The second-year running back was called into more significant action from weeks 12-17, logging 32% of the backfield snaps in the absence of James Conner. Snell Jr. carried the ball 80 times for 308 yards and two touchdowns. The Steelers seemed reluctant to hand the primary rushing role to their fourth-round pick, instead opting to split touches between him, Jaylen Samuels, Kerrith Whyte Jr., and Trey Edmunds. The Steelers also opted to completely avoid utilizing Snell Jr. as a receiver during that time. The 21-year-old was targeted just twice from weeks 12 to 17.
Looking to next season, Snell Jr. finds himself in an extremely crowded backfield. James Conner returns from his injury-plagued 2019, Jaylen Samuels remains as a receiving option, and Anthony McFarland Jr. was drafted in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. Even the team's new fullback Derek Watt figures to see some touches, especially in goal-line situations.
Snell Jr. is also a very limited athlete, so even with an injury to James Conner again in 2020, he will be limited in the passing game against players like Samuels and McFarland Jr. On the surface, it seems like Snell Jr. will struggle to have a defined role in the offense once again barring significant injuries in front of him.
Justice Hill - Baltimore Ravens
There was a lot of excitement in the fantasy community when Justice Hill was drafted to the Baltimore Ravens run-heavy offense in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL draft. Hill was explosive and productive while at Oklahoma State, and while the Ravens had a crowded backfield, there was plenty of reason to believe eventually he would develop into a big piece of their offense.
But Hill finished 2019 with 58 carries for 225 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns despite playing in all 16 games. He also added eight receptions on 15 targets for 70 yards, allowing him to total 41.5 PPR points and an RB71 finish. The Ravens opted to utilize Mark Ingram II, Lamar Jackson, and Gus Edwards heavily in the run game, which wasn’t necessarily surprising given their past usage. Unfortunately for Hill optimists, a red flag emerged in Week 17.
With Mark Ingram nursing an injury and the playoffs locked up, the Ravens opted to rest a good number of their starters during week 17. In situations like this, teams usually take advantage of the ability to assess some of their younger talents. However, the Ravens chose to trot out Gus Edwards as the lead back instead of leaving it to the 22-year-old rookie. Edwards played 68 percent of the offensive snaps and carried the ball 21 times for 130 yards. Meanwhile, Hill played a complementary role, playing 28 percent of the team’s snaps and compiling just 10 carries and 39 yards, although he did score a rushing touchdown. The decision to feature Edwards over Hill could be relatively meaningless… or it could be an insight into how the coaching staff viewed their fourth-round selection.
Unfortunately, Justice Hill truthers may struggle to see him break out again in 2020. The Ravens return Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards to the backfield and they figure to see the bulk of the carries once again next season. Beyond that, the Ravens added another explosive back to their backfield, selecting Ohio State product JK Dobbins in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft. Dobbins was highly productive at Ohio State and features a similar skill set to Justice Hill with better draft capital. All told, it is likely Hill disappoints fantasy players once again in 2020 unless he can carve out a significant role as the primary receiving back.
Darwin Thompson - Kansas City Chiefs
After being selected in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL draft by the Kansas City Chiefs, Darwin Thompson blew up in fantasy social media circles. He got the “Andy Reid RB” treatment, which skyrocketed his ADP up to the 7th-8th round before the fantasy football season. Thompson “rewarded” the fantasy community by producing 37 carries for 128 yards (3.4 yards per carry) and a touchdown while adding nine receptions and 43 yards in 12 games. The 23 year-old-rookie finished fifth on his own team in carries, behind Damien Williams, LeSean McCoy, Patrick Mahomes, and Darrel Williams. His 32.1 points were good enough for an RB88 finish.
During his most productive stretch of the season (weeks 13-17), the Utah State product averaged 25.6 percent of the team’s offensive snaps but was only able to produce 32 carries, 120 yards, six receptions, 33 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Ultimately, the hype was unwarranted as the team opted to lean on LeSean McCoy early and Damien Williams down the stretch of the season and playoffs.
Darwin Thompson can be considered an afterthought for the 2020 fantasy season. For one, Damien Williams returns to the Chiefs after a highly productive Super Bowl run. If that wasn’t enough, the Chiefs invested a first-round selection in the running back position, selecting former LSU Tiger Clyde Edwards-Helaire. At worst, Edwards-Helaire will dominate the receiving work out of the Chiefs' backfield while splitting time with Williams. At best, he will take the starting position completely, relegating Williams to a change of pace or breather back. Either way, Thompson will once again struggle to be a fantasy-relevant fantasy option during the 2020 season.
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