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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. I am super excited that we LoL back in our lives, and I'm determined to offer the best free breakdowns that you'll find anywhere in the industry!
LPL's summer split kicks off Friday, and we're going to see two games every morning from now until August. Eventually, they will be joined overnights by the LCK, but from now until June 17th, LPL takes center stage. Summer Season is here, and there are some massive contests posted in the FanDuel and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Split 2 Special that pays 50k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Friday, June 5th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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We'll be kicking off the summer split of the LPL with a matchup of a couple of surprising playoff teams from spring. This line opened at EDG -225, which I thought was pretty high, and it has moved significantly already. Likely that movement is because we just saw this matchup during the last week of the spring split with WE taking down EDG 2-1. Team WE were already in playoff mode, whereas EDG were locked into their playoff position for that match. I won't read too much into that; these two teams play very different League styles.
EDG is a more settled lane focused standard style team; JDG is another example of this type of playstyle. They want to win lane and hold that advantage over their opponent for the rest of the game. Team WE, on the other hand, are more like FPX. They want to roam early, skirmish often, and team fight their way into objectives winning the game that way. We have seen in the playoffs, and MSC, that both styles can be successful.
Team WE's playstyle leads to more variance, and for that reason, I'll be splitting my exposure here. That also plays into the odds and Draftkings pricing, but the FanDuel prices are more in line with what I would have thought before they released. FanDuel has Team WE as the most expensive across the board. The mid-jungle duos will decide this matchup. Teacherma's limited champion pool will continue being called into question whenever WE are on the slate, and if EDG can keep him off his comfort picks like Gallio, Pantheon, or Rumble, they should come ahead. I doubt we will see Plex or Shanks in this matchup. Scout should have the advantage mid, and I expect to be a wide gap if EDG can contain WE's roaming plans. Beishang versus JieJie (my projected starter) is a close win for the side of WE. Overall I think the advantage lies with EDG in the mid and bot lanes with WE holding the advantage in top lane and jungle.
As I mentioned before, WE's playstyle leads to more variance; they need to push the pace of play and be proactive, which could lead them to disaster if they mess up early. Overall I think EDG should be favored here, although not by as much as they are. It's hard to see either side closing out a 2-0 in this set, and with the discount on WE on the Draftkings side even in a close loss, they could be the better team to roster.
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG
- Missing - SUP
- Juimeng - ADC
- Teacaherma - MID
Top EDG Plays:
- JieJie - JNG
- Hope - ADC
- Scout - MID
- Meiko - SUP
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7:00 AM: LNG vs. SNG (-200)
This matchup is surprising to me is how close it is according to the odds and dfs pricing. SNG opened at -185 and has already moved to -200, and I will be watching this movement closely until game time. LNG lost Asura in the offseason, which is a downgrade to me, but they have upgraded their coaching staff. That is something that I would look to help them as the split progresses and not right away. Meanwhile, SNG has not changed from the squad that nearly pulled out a run to the playoffs in the spring.
I think that continuity and the strong close to the spring split should favor SNG in this one. They have a clear jungle advantage as well with former LNG star SofM over XX. The bot lane is also in favor of SNG's side, with Haungfeng being a big-time up and comer in the LPL. His champion pool, along with SNG's playstyle, were questioned in spring, and it will be interesting to see what he can do without Miss Fortune being such a powerful pick. When these teams met in the spring split, SNG did take a 2-1 victory thats a result I wouldn't be surprised to see again. I'll take SNG for a 2-1 win.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Huanfeng - ADC
- Swordart - SUP
- Bin - TOP
Summary
- Two game slates will be the order of the day for the next week and a half. Without the condensed schedule from spring due to COVID, the leagues will be playing their usual schedules. Roster construction will be crucial, and with how close I think this slate ends up having a one-off player from a losing team could be a way to get different on DK.
- With WE being priced up on FD, it will be pretty easy to load up on some high dollar EDG/SNG stacks. WE should be a bit lower owned over there due to the pricing. If WE win, they should be the best scoring team on the slate, but if its EDG, I think SNG outscore them a bit.
- SNG should be the chalkiest play on the slate on both sites making LNG the lowest owned by a fair margin. SNG and LNG should be the slower match of the two today, but only barely.
- Regular season league is back, and I couldn't be happier. We're going to be back to best of three games, and the better teams should be able to win out more often than not. Stylistic mismatches and other factors can throw us for loops, but I think both EDG and SNG stand a half tier or so above their competition today and expect them to win.
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