Paul DeJong (SS, STL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~175-185

CURRENT ADP: ~198 overall

ANALYSIS: Paul DeJong had his first full MLB season in 2019, and it yielded 30 homers, 175 R+RBI, and nine steals for fortunate fantasy owners. You’re getting a nice speed contribution on top of stellar R+RBI stats given his position within the order at a spot deep into a draft.

DeJong had played in 108 and 115 games over his first two respective MLB seasons, but last year saw him hit 159 games and 664 PAs. He hit second in 25 games, third in 66, fifth in 52, and only 14 below that (not counting two pinch-hit appearances at nine for the pitcher). The Cards may inject Dylan Carlson into their lineup, but odds are strong that DeJong keeps his premier batting slot with Marcell Ozuna leaving.

The lineup around him may yield lesser RBI, but his average should rebound from last season’s .259 BABIP mark closer towards his career .292 rate unless he totally sells out for power. His fly-ball rate held steady around 28% last season (per Savant) though he did lose some “solid” contact -- around six percentage points off his line-drive rate. The BA projection here is on the conservative side, but know growth potential is there.

I’m cautiously optimistic we either get a 30-homer rate or a .260 average out of him, depending on 2020’s swing path. Either way, his heart-of-the-order job makes him a steal near pick 200.