RADIO
When the news recently dropped that the Carolina Panthers were inking their superstar running back Christian McCaffrey to a four-year, $64 million extension that will pay him $16 million a year and make him the highest-paid RB in the history of the NFL, my reaction was mixed, to say the least.
We’re all aware of the Zero RB strategy that has become so well known in fantasy football circles in recent years, but the same concept translates surprisingly well to real-life player personnel decisions that NFL organizations must make concerning star running backs. We’ve seen franchises that have taken the plunge and spent heavily on stud RBs often sputter both on the field and with the resulting salary cap implications.
While there is no doubt "Run CMC" is a franchise back, does this investment bode well for the Panthers franchise and what could it mean for McCaffrey's fantasy value?
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Mo' Money, Mo' Problems
David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Todd Gurley are just three recent examples of backs that have put up monster stats only to then disappoint after signing huge contracts. Johnson and Gurley have already suffered serious injury issues and have been released by the Cardinals and Rams respectively, with both organizations choosing to cut their losses on what they realized were bad investments, while Bell has failed to boost the Jets in any meaningful way since New York signed him a year ago. The verdict is still out on Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott, a back whose play has yet to significantly decline, but whose contract is squeezing the Cowboys' salary cap tight when it comes to re-signing young QB Dak Prescott, as well as key players on the defensive side of the ball.
While these players represent the downside of paying a star RB, it’s fair to say that Christian McCaffrey is different. Right? Well, he certainly had a historic year in 2019, posting one of the greatest fantasy seasons we’ve ever seen, going over 1,000 yards both rushing AND receiving while totaling 19 TD. But what did those MASSIVE numbers add up to for the Carolina Panthers? Last place in the NFC South and a 5-11 record that got their head coach fired midway through the season.
Obviously, it’s hard to lay the blame at McCaffrey’s feet when taking the Panthers other issues into account, but the perplexing question remains: If CMC’s superhero-like output couldn’t elevate the Panthers last year, then how much value will he bring to the team in the years ahead while on this huge new deal?
History Isn't On Carolina's Side
McCaffrey has been an iron man in his first three years in the NFL, starting 42 of 48 games in his career, including 32 straight over the last two seasons. He’s not just making token starts either, as he led the NFL in RB snaps in 2019 at 1,056 which resulted in him being on the field for a ridiculous 93.37% of Carolina’s offensive snaps.
At just 23-years-old, McCaffrey should still have plenty of tread left on the tires, but if his usage continues to be anywhere near the vicinity of his 2019 numbers, we have to assume that injuries - be they major or of the “nagging” variety - will eventually become a serious issue. His youth, health history, and obvious talent make Carolina’s decision to lock him up appear more defensible than those made by New York and L.A. with Bell and Gurley.
However, Bell is an interesting comp to CMC, as he’s the most recent running back to log over 400 touches in a season (Pittsburgh ran Bell into the ground in 2017 with 406 touches). McCaffrey logged 403 touches last season and - while the recent 400-plus touch club is limited - history tells us that it will take a toll. Bell looked sluggish last season (though he was coming off a year-long layoff). We have to go all the way back to 2014 and Demarco Murray to find another back with over 400 touches. Murray was out of the NFL three years later.
It's not a coincidence, as the numbers for high-volume RBs often fall off the very next year following seasons with extremely high usage. Let's take a look at some stud backs that have logged massive workloads, using at-or-over 400 touches as our benchmark, and their performance the following year:
Christian McCaffrey - 2019 (23-years-old)
403 Touches
16 Games Started
2,392 Total Yards
Following Season: TBD
Le’Veon Bell - 2017 (25 y/o)
406 Touches
15 Games Started
1,946 Total Yards
Following Season: *Holdout in 2018
1,444 Total Yards in 15 Starts in 2019
David Johnson - 2016 (25 y/o)
373 Touches
16 Games Started
2,118 Total Yards
Following Season: One Game Started, Injured For Remainder of Season
DeMarco Murray - 2014 (26 y/o)
449 Touches
16 Games Started
2,261 Total Yards
Following Season: Eight Games Started, 1,024 Total Yards
Arian Foster - 2012 (26)
393 Touches
16 Games Started
1,641 Total Yards
Following Season: Eight Games Started, 725 Total Yards
Every player is different and these comparisons are just that...comparisons. I have no doubt that Christian McCaffrey is a very talented and special player, but we have no choice but to assume one of two things will happen going forward: either Carolina will continue to max out McCaffrey’s usage, which will result in injury or they will attempt to limit his snaps in order to protect their investment, which will result in reduced statistical output and impact.
Does this mean we shouldn't draft CMC with the first pick when our fantasy drafts roll around? Absolutely not, but we should also be prepared to see some statistical regression this year due to either reduced usage or injury.
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