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Dan Palyo's League of Leagues (LoL) analysis and LCS DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings on 4/7/20. He discusses the LEC and LCS playoff LoL slates and his top targets.
Welcome to RotoBaller's coverage of League of Legends DFS for FanDuel and DraftKings. Hopefully, you've been following our coverage of the LPL/LCK overnight slates on DraftKings and now FanDuel is finally offering contests, too! Today, I will be focusing on the two-game LCS playoff slate that is available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings are finally on the same page here and have the same games on this Tuesday-Wednesday slate. I am going to break down all three matches and try my best to explain how I will approach each of the slates individually. One important thing to note is that these matches are now "bo5" (best of five) series which changes things quite a bit from the usual single-game format of regular-season matches.
Today I'll be bringing you my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for the LCS playoff slate on FanDuel and DraftKings that locks on Tuesday, April 7th at 4:00 PM. Follow me on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and definitely make sure you're following my LoL mentor and our RotoBaller lead ESports analyst @Mr_Malmanger, too!
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League of Legends DFS Basics
I am stealing most of these tips from our lead analyst, Jason Malmanger. Since LCS contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.
- . Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
- In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
- Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring. Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
- Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID. Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP. Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.
NOTE: An important detail to note in regards to scoring is that both teams and players can get a double bonus for sweeping their opponent 3-0 in the best of five format. Each player receives 20 extra points in a 3-1 series victory, while teams get 15 additional points. That becomes 40 points per player in a sweep and 30 points per team. Both DraftKings and FanDuel both have the same scoring rules for this bonus.
LCS Losers' Bracket
4:00 PM Tuesday: FlyQuest (-215) vs Golden Guardians
Here we have two teams that are trending in different directions and opportunity to use the Vegas odds against those who rely too heavily on them to pick winners. I think GG is the better team here despite being the underdog. Flyquest has been in a freefall for the entire second half of the season, posting a 3-5 record in the month of March to finish the regular season at 10-8.
They proceeded to get handled by Evil Genuises in round one 3-1. Meanwhile, GG won their final two games of the regular season to sneak into the playoffs as the sixth seed. One of those wins was against this FlyQuest team. They split the season series 1-1 as FQ took the first matchup back in February.
Golden Guardians rank better in gold percentage rating, first tower rate, and first to kill three towers rate. Their early game rating is a hair better than FQ, but their average gold difference at the fifteen-minute mark is substantially better as they are actually third-best in the league.
If they can play from in front and control the game early, they have a great shot at taking this series despite Flyquest having some more talent at certain positions. FlyQuest is the most expensive team to roster on DraftKings and I'm not really sure why other than they are the higher-seeded team. If you want to pick a game to hedge, I would pick this one as I am all in on 100T in Wednesday's game.
Top GG Stack:
- Closer - JNG (7800 FD, 6000 DK)
- Huhi - SUP (6800 FD, 4600 DK)
- FBI - ADC (9400 FD, 7200 DK)
Top FQ Stack:
- Solo - TOP (8600 FD, 6200 DK) - if he starts over V1per
- PowerOfEvil - MID (9100 FD, 7800 DK)
- Santorin - JNG (8500 FD, 7000 DK)
4:00 PM Wednesday: Team Solo Mid vs 100 Thieves (no Vegas line yet)
After getting spanked by Cloud9 3-0 in the first round of the playoffs, 100 Thieves will look to bounce back and avoid elimination by beating a very solid TSM squad on Wednesday. The two teams split their season series 1-1, but as we saw in the first matchup, we have seen them trending in very different directions.
Before the C9 beatdown (don't worry 100T, everyone gets their C9 beatdown), 100T had reeled off five straight wins and six of their last seven. Meanwhile, TSM dropped their final three games of the regular season, including one to this 100T team on the final weekend.
This series has the potential to get very bloody as both teams ranked in the top four in the LCS in kills this season. I like 100T and their aggressive style of play. TSM tends to play a more objective-focused game so it will be very interesting to see which team dictates the fighting in these games.
I think it certainly has the potential to go five games and that the winning team from this game probably racks up the most raw points on the slate. I like 100T in this one 3-1 or 3-2 and I think they're worth paying up for on FanDuel where they are the highest-priced team.
Top 100T Stack:
- Meteos - JNG (8700 FD, 6600 DK)
- Ssumday- TOP (8900 FD, 6000 DK)
- Cody Sun - ADC (10300 FD, 7800 DK)
- Ryoma - MID (9300 FD, 7400 DK)
- Favorite captain = Cody Sun
Top TSM Stack:
- Bergsen - MID (8800 FD, 7200 DK)
- Kobbe - ADC (9800 FD, 7600 DK)
- Biofrost - SUP (7400 FD, 5000 DK)
Summary
- My favorite combination will be 100T/Golden Guardians but I'll probably have exposure to one other team.
- I think 100t/TSM ends up being a bloodier series that produces more fantasy points.
- Both series have the potential to go to five games and I really don't expect any team to sweep 3-0.
Be sure to check back throughout the week as we'll be publishing daily ESports DFS articles, analysis and lineup picks for League Of Legends, Counter-Strike, Rocket League and eNASCAR. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
