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Welcome to RotoBaller's League of Legends DFS column. We'll continue ramping up our analysis for LoL DFS all week, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. With six more games on the docket tonight in the LPL and LCK and the LCS and LEC playoffs right around the corner, it's a great time for ESports DFS enthusiasts like myself and the number of contests on FanDuel and DraftKings continues to grow.
It has been a wild and wooly couple of days, or rather nights. There have been some substantial upsets in the LPL lately. The scrappier nature of that league lends itself to those kinds of things. A few of those we saw coming, others caught us by surprise. Going to reset here and stick to the process as we look at Friday morning's slate.
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL/LCK slate on DraftKings that locks at 2:00 AM on Friday, April 3rd, 2020.
LCK Matches
2:00 AM: Sandbox Gaming vs. Gen G
The opener on the LCK side is an open and shut case. Gen G is a huge favorite. They swept the first set from Sandbox 2-0. Game one of that series was a crazy one. Gen G won 28 - 18 in 46 minutes. That is a wild outcome.
Game two was a much more typical Gen G affair with them taking care of business 15 - 1 in 28 minutes. Game log watchers on DraftKings are going to get burned on this one. Even that 15 - 1 outcome is atypical for Gen G. SBG lost it mentally after dropping that first game in such a fashion.
This match is a fade for me on Friday. Players should have little upside as Gen G plays such a controlled style. If you want to grab some cheap pieces for your cash games, they are a lock to win at -1800.
GEN G - Team - ($5,800)
Gen G team on DraftKings has nearly as much upside as any of the players. I will be using them as a one-off in some 4-2-1 stacks to get away from any ties. Game log watchers will be rewarded here as the Gen G team has reached into the seventies before on DK. I think a more reasonable outcome would be high fifties or low sixties. Gen G gets first blood in 82% of their games; then they follow that with the first turret at 61%. Both of those are good for first in the league. They also have substantial advantages in Herald %, Drake %, and Baron %. Fire up the team slot and forget the players in the first LCK match of the night.
5:00 AM: T1 vs. Griffin
It's first place vs. last place in the LCK, this matchup too seems to be over before it begins. Our second LCK match of the night is similarly unexciting as our first, perhaps even more so. T1 bested GRF 2-0 in week four of the LCK. They face off here again, and I expect a very similar result. T1 has every advantage you would expect in first vs. last matchup.
T1 players tend to score better on average than Gen G players even though both teams play a similar style of game. One factor to this has been T1, having had some poor drafts. They have painted themselves into corners and been able to salvage losing scenarios with talent. Even with that boost, I think again I'll be looking elsewhere on Friday.
Teddy - ADC - ($7,800)
If you are going to choose a T1 player, it should be Teddy. Even though Faker is the most known league of legends player ever, it is the young ADC that secures the most fantasy points. He's the team leader in Kp % and kill share.
8:00 AM: Damwon vs. Afreeca Freecs
Finally, the LCK provides us with a game that will be competitive. Afreeca is coming into this matchup on a four-game losing streak. Damwon is on a two-game win streak and seems to have recaptured some of their 2019 mojo. Damwon's recent victories are over HLE and APK, the ninth and eighth team in the standings.
After a nice win over league-leading T1, Afreeca began their current losing streak, which was capped on Thursday a.m. with a loss to APK. Afreeca's inconsistency is maddening for DFS players. Unless we turn it to our advantage. Damwon will be a popular option as an inexpensive favorite. They clapped the same APK quad that beat AFS on Thursday.
I think DWG win on Friday the most important part of their wins is they recaptured some of their early game aggression. However, this is a VERY sneaky spot to add some AFS to your life in a spot where they are likely going to be very undervalued.
Showmaker - MID - ($7,000)
Fly has been bad for AFS. Showmaker has advantages over his counterpart in nearly every relevant statistical category. DWG has been getting him back on some carry champs. He is again able to control the early game by shoving out his waves and roaming to influence the rest of the map.
Ghost - ADC - ($6,800)
The newest addition to the squad is former SBG ADC Ghost. He has benefited from a few matches now to get his feet under him vs. some sub-par competition. A step up in competition vs. Mystic is coming. The upside here is we are getting him at a nice discount. He is even cheaper than Mystic. Small sample size, but his KP has been impressive. He has also shown the ability to play both late and early game champions.
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: Dominus Esports vs. Edward Gaming
DMO is streaking. While they have shown improvement, they have only looked good vs. other bottom feeders in the league. EDG, on the other hand, likes to go the other way, playing up against top tier teams like RNG and eStar. Then nearly losing to the likes of LGD, and losing to RW.
This could certainly be another letdown spot for EDG, but I believe they have better shot calling from the veteran Meiko. Their superior late-game decision making along with better baron control and vision numbers should allow them to take this. I can see hedging this spot in GPPs. A few pieces of DMO will allow for spending up later.
Scout - MID - ($7,800)
While EDG's star mid-laner has not had that many upside games so far, he might need to if they plan to win this match. He has some of the most advantageous numbers vs. his opposite number Xiye. He has played 13 different champions this split, that's an imposing number. Xiye has the highest kill share on DMO, and that is why Scout is so pivotal in this matchup. If EDG is to win he needs to get the shutdown. He has been the glue that holds his team together.
Hope - ADC - ($8,200)
While Scout has been holding the team together, it has been Hope who has reaped a majority of the benefits. He leads the team in kill participation, kill share, and fantasy points. He finishes what Scout starts. Meiko has been a bit off this split for EDG. Normally a top support in the league, he has made some key positioning errors in recent games. He would benefit most from getting back into more engage supports. Lpl has moved into patch 10.6, and Rakan is rising in priority again. This change is perfect for EDG and Meiko in particular.
5:00 AM: Victory Five vs. Invictus Gaming
IG will be the most expensive team across the board on Friday, a position they well deserve. Couple the way V5 has played recently with Invictus sloppy play style, and I think you've got a real recipe for success. V5 has been starting games much better, often accruing early leads, but not knowing what to do with them mid-game.
This game state could leave IG having to fight their way back into these games. I look for IG to try to test their limits again in this game. I think this is a sweep for the season eight world champs, but V5 could score decent in a sloppy matchup for their prices.
Puff - IG - ADC - ($8,400)
Stack him up with his bot lane partner Southwind and watch the points pour in. IG is in the most attractive spot on Friday's slate facing a V5 squad that dies 19 times a game in their losses. Puff is IG's leader in kill share Rookie is the kill participation % leader you can't go wrong here with IG.
clx - V5 - SUP ($3,400)
DraftKings continues to list V5's mid laner as a support player. He did play several games in that position earlier in the year while their starting support Max was under quarantine. He is back home as the starting mid-laner vs. a slopy IG team here. Earlier in the week vs. RNG he put up 32 DKP at $3,600. Now he's cheaper, and in a better spot fantasy-wise. Adding some shares of clx in a lot of builds can open some things up. There is also a genuine possibility IG just destroys both games in under 20 minutes, and clx only gets to 12 DraftKings points. That might be a risk I'm willing to take knowing my boys on Invictus.
7:00 AM: EStar vs. Royal Never Give Up
We've got another LPL game of the week here. The last game of the morning in china might be the best out of them all. Plenty of us will be up to watch and cheer our fantasy teams to victory.
Estar is a team that a lot of knowledgable people have pegged as due for regression. I highlighted briefly how Vici would be able to attack eStar on Wednesday. I believe other smart teams will be able to turn the Vici victory into a blueprint for stopping the eStar juggernaut until they prove they can adapt. Estar's coach lucky has been out of the competitive scene for several years before joining the squad. RNG's coach Mata is a legendary support player.
We may have another case of recency bias here as people overreact to an eStar loss, but RNG has a similar focus to their bot side of the map. They also have the talent in Ming and Betty to compete. I'll take RNG to duplicate Vici gaming's win here. I think we have to keep taking "smarter" teams against eStar until they prove they can evolve their strategies.
Betty - ADC - ($7,200)
Betty, along with his support Ming, will be a big reason why RNG wins here. If they can stand up to the aggression that eStar uses to support their bot duo they can turn the map around. They lead the team in kill participation % standing one and two, and Betty leads in kill share.
LangX - TOP - ($6,000)
This price is disrespectful for the number two top laner in the league in kill participation. People have compared eStar to Griffin for their explosion from the minor leagues to the prime time. I can compare them like this, their top-laner is a weakness. Xiaobai benefits greatly from the system, but not unlike Griffin's Sword, he can be exploited. LangX should be able to win out top lane handily, and while the focus goes bot he should be unopposed. He has played eleven different champions. This flexibility is yet another advantage for the former SNG star.
Looking Forward
With LPL and LCK overnight slates continuing through mid-April, we here at RotoBaller have got you covered. The League of Legends DFS action never stops. The LEC and LCS will start their playoffs this weekend, and EU Masters kicks off next week.
Check back throughout the week as we'll publish more ESports League of Legends advice, analysis, and DFS lineup picks. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
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