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Scott Engel breaks down the trade that sent wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills from various fantasy football perspectives. How will this impact his new QB, Josh Allen, and former QB Kirk Cousins?
There is not much available for NFL teams on free agency at the wide receiver position. The pickings are already slim after Amari Cooper and A.J. Green were retained by their current ballclubs. But as we are seeing early in free agency, that has not prevented some significant wideout movement.
The first big news of the tampering period came quickly when the Texans dealt DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals on Monday. That was a definite surprise and was not the first WR trade of the day. In a move that was not a shock, the Vikings unloaded Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills. The author of the “Minneapolis Miracle” in the NFC Playoffs in January 2018, Diggs will always be fondly remembered for his game-winning reception against the Saints. But the following season, he became unhappy with the offensive direction of the team and made it clear he wanted out of Minnesota.
Now the Bills get the No. 1 WR they were seeking for rising QB Josh Allen, while the Vikings affirmed their commitment to a run-first offense and rid themselves of an unhappy prominent player. Here are the fantasy reverberations and impacts of the Vikings-Bills deal.
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Buffalo Digging a New Receiver
The Bills paid a handsome sum to acquire Diggs, sending four draft choices to Minnesota, including a first-rounder in 2020, and will also receive a seventh-rounder in return. The Patriots and Redskins were also reportedly interested in acquiring Diggs, but the Bills came up with the most appealing package, as the Vikings were supposedly seeking a haul similar to when they dealt Percy Harvin to Seattle for three draft choices in 2013.
The Bills now have two Top 25 fantasy wideouts from the 2019 season, as John Brown finished 20th and Diggs was 25th. The move to Buffalo should instantly improve Diggs’ outlook, as Buffalo is looking to open up their passing game more. The Bills were sixth in terms of leaning to the running game in run/pass ratio last year, but that can heavily be attributed to a lack of quality receiving depth. The Vikings were third in the league in terms of run emphasis and are not planning to alter the approach. Buffalo can now ramp up their passing attack with a duo of Diggs and Brown leading the way.
Diggs caught just 63 passes last year as he became unhappy about the Vikings’ offensive approach. The year before, he caught a career-high 102 balls and finished as WR7 overall in fantasy football despite missing one game. To his credit, he still finished with career bests in receiving yards (1,130) and yards per catch (17.9) in 2019 despite totaling nearly 40 fewer receptions. Diggs is clearly capable of catching many more passes than he did last season while also being a very prolific big-play artist. He has the qualities of a pure No. 1 wideout the Bills were searching for.
Diggs should be considered a high-end fantasy WR2 with the Bills, as Allen will likely pepper him frequently on key passing downs, and will not hesitate to take shots with him downfield. Allen ranked 15th in the NFL with 11.4 yards per completion and should see that number rise with a dangerous pair of deeper threats in Diggs and Brown.
Allen was 32nd in the NFL in completion percentage (58.8%), as having a receiving crew lacking a true No. 1 WR played a role in that number. Diggs’ 2019 catch rate of 68% would have led the team last season. You can expect Allen to look to Diggs first and foremost very often on important passing downs and utilize his big-play skills to challenge defenses more often downfield. Diggs now becomes a clear top target and the prime playmaker for a new team instead of battling for opportunities with Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen when available. A receiving line of 90-plus catches with 1,100 yards and eight TDs is certainly within reach if he stays healthy. Injuries have sometimes been an issue for Diggs, but he has only missed two games in the past two seasons.
Now with a deeper receiving crew of Diggs, Brown and Cole Beasley, Allen, who finished last season as QB6 in fantasy football, has the potential to become a more productive passer while retaining his upside as a running QB. You can realistically consider him as a Top 7 player at the position with the upside for a Top 4-5 finish. He is now a dual-threat with a quality receiving corps and Devin Singletary can also catch passes out of the backfield. The supporting cast is certainly a factor when being optimistic about his outlook. Allen’s accuracy does need to improve, but adding Diggs will help him in that department.
Brown logged a 72-1,060-6 line last year and could see his statistical profile change a bit. He may catch fewer passes and pile up some more yardage and another TD or two as Allen looks for him more often as a pure field stretcher and will lean on him less heavily as a chain-mover.
Man Down in Minnesota
The Vikings will now hope Adam Thielen can stay healthy, as he fashioned a 30-418-6 line last year in 10 games. We have not truly seen the best of Thielen since the first half of the 2018 season, as he slumped to a 39-448-3 performance in the second half of that year. But if he stays healthy he still has the abilities to be a quality fantasy WR2. What becomes apparent now is how the Vikings address their depth at WR behind him. They do have additional draft capital now and they may also make TE Irv Smith Jr. a bigger part of the passing game.
Minnesota is preparing to center its offense around Dalvin Cook in 2020, but health will continue to be a concern, even in minor ways. He still missed two games last year. Make sure you handcuff Alexander Mattison if you roster Cook this season, as he looked like one of the most potentially productive backups in the league last year. I recommended Cook as a late first-round pick in my Early One-Man Mock Draft.
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