RADIO
I've already covered the NL West previously in this series. Today, we’re covering the AL Central, which sports a couple of my favorite fantasy prospects in baseball.
As with all prospect hunting, the variance on outcomes is all over the board with these guys, but the AL Central has me feeling, personally, quite confident. These organizations have all had recent success with graduating top prospects and getting solid gains out of fringier guys. Kansas City has perhaps struggled the most recently, but the picks for that organization were guys that feel either like they can’t miss or that they simply won’t fail due to sheer force of character. The Twins, Indians, and White Sox are all extremely smart organizations that have years of recent history elevating certain profiles. The Tigers are bad - I don’t really have a clever way to put it.
As a self-diagnosed prospect nut, I am constantly reading and looking at young players to gain an edge in my various dynasty, Ottoneu, and deep redraft leagues. It would be a shame if all this work only benefited me, so my friends at Rotoballer would like to present to you my favorite under the radar players that I’ve already acquired, or am looking to grab in drafts this spring. Of course, keep in mind that many of these players will be owned for at least a couple of years before you can expect either MLB playing time or the kind of value jump that turns a non-asset into a real trade chip.
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Chicago White Sox – Benyamin Bailey, OF
Well, this was going to be Steele Walker, but Nomar Mazara messed that right up, didn’t he?
Before getting to the matter at hand, a quick bit of context. Benyamin Bailey hails from Panama City, Panama. If you’re racking your brain to think of another MLBer that is also from Panama, you’re not alone. There are a grand total of 10 current major leaguers from the tiny country, perhaps most notably Johan Carmago, which historically has not been a hotbed for athletic talent. This leads to prospects coming from countries like Panama to be overlooked because they don’t have the baseball background that’s been cultivated in countries like Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. They’re also generally more willing to sign for tiny bonuses.
All that said, on to Bailey. After signing for a mere $35,000 bonus in 2018, the now 18-year-old showed out at the Dominican Summer League to the tune of .342/.503/.447. Even more surprising, he racked up 45 walks and 33 strikeouts, showing an eye at the plate that nobody saw coming. That walk rate contributed to a whopping .476 wOBA, which opened a lot of eyes in the scouting community.
Bailey is a man child, standing 6’4” and 215 pounds when he was 17! Despite the chiseled body, Bailey only launched a single home run last season. However, he also racked up nine doubles and a pair of triples, using a natural swing path to generate strong contact. He’s long-limbed and lanky, meaning he’s likely to add substantial weight over the next couple of seasons while he gets access to professional level seasoning. If you were putting ideal ingredients into a pot, hoping to cook up a future top prospect, the outcome might look a lot like Bailey.
For my fellow trivia aficionados, some baseball greats also from Panama include Dave Roberts, Carlos Lee, Rod Carew, and Mariano Rivera. Neat!
Honorable Mention: Luis Mieses, OF; James Beard, OF
Cleveland Indians – Lenny Torres, SP
Lenny Torres didn’t begin focusing on pitching until later in his high school career, but flourished so much so that he was selected in the first competitive balance round in the 2018 draft. Tommy John surgery has kept Torres on the shelf for all but 15 innings of Rookie ball, but those few innings were enlightening. A miniscule 1.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, coupled with a sterling K/BB of 5.5 have the Indians feeling like they have a real asset.
Torres’ small sample size isn’t the only area for optimism. The 19-year-old has scouting reports that fantasy players drool over. A quick, loose arm that runs his fastball up to 97 mph that flashes above-average. The heater is paired with a plus slider which is a true out pitch. The questions about Torres are the same that scouts would have about any young pitcher who was new to the craft, and Torres is in the midst of adding a changeup to his arsenal. He’s also in the midst of ironing out his delivery to improve his control, but the Indians appear optimistic that Torres is athletic enough to easily repeat his delivery, which may bump the rest of his tools up.
The takeaway here is that Torres has all the pieces to be a really good no. 3 in the rotation with lots of strikeouts for fantasy players. When I think of what Torres could provide at his peak, I can’t shake Jose Quintana out of my head. He’s been a fantasy asset for a long-time, once underrated and who popped with a couple of fantasy ace seasons. Torres has a long way to go to get to that lofty, All-Star ceiling, but I don’t have to squint hard to see that future outcome.
Bonus Cleveland Indian – Danny Medina, SP
Ok, so full disclosure I know next to nothing about this 2019 J2 signing out of the Dominican Republic from a baseball sense. He signed as a 16-year-old starting pitcher for an undisclosed, but likely very small signing bonus. It’s reported that he’s just hitting 90 with his fastball and has a sharp, but inconsistent slider. All told, he has the right mix of body and stuff at a young age to be considered a lottery ticket by the organization.
The reason I bring him up is that his mother and my wife grew up together in Santo Domingo and I’m just super proud of him. Regardless of whether or not he’s a real prospect, he’s a really good kid with enough baseball skill to try to make a career for himself playing ball. With that career, he can set his entire family up for life. It’s a dream for many a Dominican child to leverage their baseball ability into a comfortable life for their loved ones and Danny is no different. I’m going to be drafting him late in a dynasty league I’m involved in, if for no other reason than moral support (and so my wife can text proof to his mother, who will be no doubt very confused at the concept of me “owning” her son). In any case, keep an eye out and remember to be root for these kids as they grow up playing the game they love.
Honorable Mention: Jose Pastrano, SS; Christian Cairo, 2B
Detroit Tigers– Carlos Guzman, SP/RP
Lovefest over, back to hard-hitting analysis! There are few better systems to discuss where “hard-hitting” is appropriate. Not because the output of the Tigers’ farm is anything special, but rather because, well, it’s close to rock bottom. Detroit has struggled to find and develop talent at all levels, leading to a top-heavy list that gets thin really fast. Where most systems start to fall off somewhere between 12 and 17, but I’m not sure there are more than five guys that I’d be excited to own out of their prospects.
This challenge brings us to Guzman, a 21-year-old converted infielder whose stats, especially those from A-ball in 2019, don’t really jump off the page. However, the numbers hide a very interesting narrative and skillset. Despite never pitching at any organized level in his life, Guzman used his live arm, exceptional athleticism, and surprising spin on his fastball to strike out more than a batter per inning in just his second season of hurling full-time.
Guzman is in no way ready for the show. He needs to dramatically improve his breaking stuff and maybe to add another pitch to stick in the rotation, but this is a high ceiling and possibly higher-than-expected floor. With the possibility for three above-average pitches and a recent history of making big developmental leaps quickly, Guzman is the kind of fast riser who could be a strong value for dynasty players, regardless of his ultimate role.
Honorable Mention: Roberto Campos, OF; Paul Richan, SP
Kansas City Royals – Erick Pena, OF
This one might be cheating, as the 16-year-old received a massive and well-publicized $3.9 million signing bonus from Kansas City during the 2019 J2 period. I hate buying into the hype on J2 guys too early (*five minute break to bat myself on the back for ignoring Kevin Maitan), but Pena looks like the real deal.
A plus athlete with an advanced feel for the game, Pena showed he belonged in the pro game from the jump. He has always played against older competition and, in fact, has thrived. A native Dominican, Pena arrived at instructional ball as a fluent English speaker and in shape. You can’t teach that kind of maturity from a young age.
At the plate, Pena’s swing is balanced, strong, and level, allowing him to make good contact even though his plate coverage isn’t there yet. He’s projected for plus power and at least an average hit tool, but the projections are generally only derived from the body and its expected growth. I’d expect a kid with these kinds of tools, his advanced baseball skills, and his good work ethic to push his non-physical tools to their zenith. If that happens, we’re looking at a plus athlete with plus power and an above-average hit tool.
Most J2 kids should be ignored in their signing year, at least until they have some substantial playing time with MLB coaches. Pena is not one to wait for.
Honorable Mention: Jonathan Bowlan, SP; Yohanse Morel, SP
Minnesota Twins – Cole Sands, SP
There are a handful of tools or traits I look for in a “sleeper” or, more specifically, in a draft-worthy fantasy prospect. Good bloodlines are nice, but not critical. Kids that are 17 or 18 that can already handle pro-level breaking pitches, elite plate recognition (I see you, Luis Arraez), or an uber-patient approach. Fantasy analysis rarely puts grades on tools like these, so it can be hard to look past the numbers and rankings to the fantasy assets lurking just beneath the surface. In a way, this speaks to every one of my picks, but it especially speaks to the Twins’ young pitcher Cole Sands.
The 22-year-old Sands is a former fifth-rounder out of Florida State and is the younger brother of a former Cubs farmhand. Once the Seminoles’ ace before being shut down due to injury, my main interest in Sands is a plus changeup which he pairs with plus command and what has the makings of a slightly above-average fastball. The greatest concerns about Sands’ ability to stick as a starter are that his repertoire outside of that changeup is a bit average, but I actually see opportunity.
Sands has a slider and a curveball that tails off like a slurve when it gets away from him. That’s the bad, but the good is that he generates a ton of spin on both pitches and has a smooth, easy delivery. While the pitch grades themselves may never come out better than average, the high spin rate combined with Sands’ plus command are going to allow him to use those pitches as weapons to force hitters into outcomes he wants, like groundballs for example.
Couple that scouting report with a very smart coaching staff in Minnesota led by Rocco Baldelli, and you have the makings of a much more valuable and surprising fantasy weapon. Sands won’t be Jacob deGrom, but could he be as valuable as a Kenta Maeda-type? No question.
Honorable Mention: Gilberto Celestino, OF; Rhodery Diaz, OF
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