ADP Cost Analysis - Luis Robert vs Kyle Tucker

With spring training games officially underway, excitement around the fantasy baseball season simultaneously hits a new peak. As batting orders begin to map out and pitching rotations start to take shape, a lot of movement happens on ADP lists. Prospects tend to gain the most helium around this time of year because we have a natural tendency to dream about the overflowing potential, and we possess the desire to own the shiny new toy.

Unless you've been living under a rock so far this fantasy draft season, you know that the youngster with the most hype so far is outfielder Luis Robert. The Chicago White Sox wisely bought out his arbitration years this offseason by inking him to a six-year pact, indicating that MLB's third-ranked overall prospect will be a part of the club's Opening Day lineup. With service time no longer an issue, there's no wonder why the hype train is chugging at full speed at over maximum seating capacity. One of the most crucial elements to drafting your fake squad, however, is to find value. The best way to uncover value is to identify players with similar skillsets and wait for the player at a lower cost. Enter: Kyle Tucker.

Overshadowed by the Astros sign-stealing scandal so far this spring, Tucker's name hasn't generated the buzz that a former top-five prospect would typically get this time of year. His 143 ADP isn't a straight discount by any means, but compared to Robert's ADP of 87, the near five-round value is appealing. A look into both these players' skillsets will discover that there's not much difference between the two, and perhaps we should hop on a less-crowded hype train since their destination is the same.

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Runaway Robert Train

Robert began the 2019 year in High-A and cruised through Double-A before ending his season in Triple-A Charlotte. He finished this progressive season with a combined slash line of .328/.376/.624 with 32 homers and 36 stolen bases, helping him earn the USA Today Minor League Player of the Year. Robert's five-category potential is alluring, but there are a few holes in his game that could make him vulnerable at the major league level.

The 22-year-old struck out a tolerable 23.4% of the time across his three levels of ball last season, which isn't terrible, but his 5.1% walk rate leaves more to be desired. His aggressive approach could get exposed with smarter pitchers knowing his tendencies, so he's far from a lock to keep his batting average around the .300 mark. Robert also gradually hit worse across each level last season with it culminating at a .297 clip through 47 Triple-A games, so it's reasonable to believe it will take another moderate drop in the majors. Projection systems are placing his BA anywhere between .249 and .273, but it could be closer to the former if it takes Robert longer to adjust to big-league pitching.

Although his average incrementally declined at every minor league stop, his power blossomed at Triple-A with 16 of his long balls hit at this level. He became an extreme fly-ball hitter as he put the ball in the air 49.3% of the time with Charlotte. This was a vast improvement over his mark in the mid-30% range during his injury-shortened 2018 season in Single-A. Robert's ability to loft the ball will translate well to the majors, and it's also a plus that his home ballpark ranked 11th last season for right-handed bats. Projection systems are wisely keeping expectations in check, however, with Steamer predicting the highest HR total of 25 and THE BAT with the least at 21. Both these sites are going off a 139-game season, so a number anywhere in between here is welcomed at his cost, especially paired with his speed ability.

Robert's high theft total is the driving force behind his preseason buildup. He swiped a combined 29 bags in 37 opportunities (78.3%) through High-A and Double-A, but slowed down at Charlotte going 7-for-10 (70.0%) on the base paths. His conversion rate isn't ideal, and the White Sox finished in the bottom third of the league in SB a year ago, so expecting 30 thefts against superior pick off moves and better defensive catchers may be setting the bar too high. Batting in the bottom-third of the Pale Hose lineup will help give him the green light more often, but projection systems still have his total sitting between 16 and 25 thefts.

Tucker Express

Tucker showed he has nothing left to prove in the minors after slashing .266/.354/.555 with 34 bombs and 30 SB in 125 games for Triple-A Round Rock last season. This came a year after he hit .332 at this level with a 24/20 season as he emerged ahead of Yordan Alvarez as the Astros top prospect. Despite the higher tout, it was the hulking slugger who received the big-league promotion in June, possibly due to Tucker's struggles in the majors in 2018.

As a 21-year-old in 2018, Tucker was recalled on three separate occasions to the majors where he went 6-for-64 at the dish (.141), although he held his own with an 18.1% K-rate and 8.3% walk rate. He's displayed commendable plate discipline metrics across all of his minor league stops, including a career 20.0% K% and 10.8% BB% through 225 Triple-A contests. Tucker had to wait until September to receive his promotion in 2019, where he saw some growing pains in terms of plate discipline (27.8% K%), but he managed to swat a crisp .269 with 10 of his 18 hits going for extra bases. The Florida native has a similar BA projection to Robert with totals that fall between .241 and .265. A rebound in plate discipline marks combined with a look into his batted ball data from 2019 makes a number closer to the latter justifiable.

Although he was a little impatient at the plate, Tucker held superb Statcast numbers when he made contact. Albeit a small sample, to find a full season comp, these numbers resemble closest to NL MVP Cody Bellinger.

Tucker paired his elite batted ball data with a 46.8% fly-ball rate and 46.8% pull rate, a perfect recipe for a home ballpark that ranked fourth in HR factor for left-handed batters. While it's difficult to project these measures to hold up over a full season, production at 90% can easily translate to a 25-HR bat. THE BAT and Steamer project a conservative 99 games played for Tucker in 2020, with 17 and 20 respective home run totals. With Josh Reddick as his only obstacle for everyday playing time, it's easier to believe a projection closer to ZiPS' 26-dinger season under 147 games played.

Tucker was a master on the base paths in 2019 as he swiped 30 of 35 bases with Round Rock (85.7%) before going 5-for-5 at the major-league level in September. His 27.8 ft/s Sprint Speed isn't in the upper-echelon, but it still ranked between proven base stealers Mookie Betts and Lorenzo Cain, who rely on their wits as much as their talent for success. The Astros finished smack-dab in the middle in SB last season, but new manager Dusty Baker may give the team the go-ahead more often after his Nationals teams finished in the top-five back in the 2016-17 seasons. The full season anticipated by ZiPS expects a 27-steal campaign, which is feasible given his high success rate, whereas the floor settles in at 14 thefts projected by Steamer.

Choosing Your Hype Train

With similar tools and projected year-end totals for both the ceiling and the floor, these bats are closer in talent than what their ADP suggests. A 56-pick difference seems outrageous since Tucker has 178 more Triple-A games played at a high rate and 144 PA of growing pains out of the way at the major-league level. It's possible Robert finds his stride right away in the bigs, but it's extremely uncommon for youngsters to translate their minor league numbers directly in their first taste of action. Of course, some players will seep through these cracks, but taking the risk on the Cuban is much higher than waiting for a few rounds to select Tucker, who can post just as good of numbers or better.

The biggest concern for Tucker is playing time, but with Reddick entering his age-33 season in the last year of his contract, it doesn't make much sense to trot him out in right field regularly when they have a 23-year-old ready to make an impact. Tucker's .296 BA against southpaws in 2019 indicates he can handle same-side hurlers already, whereas Reddick holds an underwhelming .242 BA against these hurlers for his career. With strong splits, praiseworthy lifetime plate discipline metrics and expected adjustments already made to combat major-league pitching, Tucker is the safer option and a terrific consolation prize to Robert.

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