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Which outfielders who broke out last fantasy baseball season could be due for a regression in the 2020 MLB season? Kipp Heisterman looks at outfielders who could be overvalued in fantasy drafts.
Every season in MLB you can count on the fact that you will have breakout performances from players. Sometimes these breakout performances can be seen coming a mile away and sometimes they catch you entirely by surprise. Regardless of which type of breakout we see, you will almost always have to pay up for that player the following season.
Often we can be duped by paying full price for these players in drafts the following season. You never want to overpay for stats from a previous season. The goal should always be to find those breakout stars before the breakout occurs. Or, at the very least, pay a reasonable value for breakout players the following year.
In this article, we will examine outfield eligible players that had a breakout in 2019 and are going earlier in drafts than they rightfully should be. They may still perform very well in 2020, but their cost is simply inflated based on 2019's performance. Each of these outfield eligible talents has an ADP inside the top 150, so there is a very good chance you will have to decide whether or not their price tag is too high for you come draft day.
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J.D. Martinez (BOS) - ADP 23.4
J.D. Martinez has been a stud the past several seasons, so it might be surprising to some seeing him on this list. While he wasn't a technical breakout candidate, he did have a very solid 2019 by slashing .304/.383/.557 with 36 HR, 105 RBI, 98 R, and 72 BB. He has been a solid source of power over the previous few seasons as noted by this stat line, but is he worth the price tag of a second-round pick in 2020? The metrics tell us he may not be.
In 2019, Martinez put up some career lows as far as power metrics are concerned. He had a barrel rate of just 12%, which was the lowest he has had in five years, and was 3.7% below his career average. His xSLG also dropped to .579 after having hit .621 and .683 in 2018 and 2017, respectively. Finally, his hard-hit rate dropped below his career average of 48.7% to 46.7%, which is not insignificant. He will be turning 33 this season and there is a chance we could start to see a further decline.
The loss of Mookie Betts could also have an impact on Martinez as he will now become one of, if not the main focal point for opposing pitchers facing the Red Sox. He likely will not have the opportunities to drive as many runs in without Betts ahead of him in the lineup either. In 2019, Martinez was ranked just inside the top-30 players overall at seasons end, so why should we be paying a second-round price tag for him in 2020 if his metrics and lineup potential have declined? While Martinez can still provide fantasy owners plenty of production in 2020, a pick inside the top 24 may be too high of a price to acquire him. If you can get him in the third round, then pull the trigger on Martinez.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - ADP 34.2
Yordan Alvarez burst onto the scene in 2019 with a tremendous rookie campaign that garnered him the AL Rookie-of-the-Year award. He achieved this by slashing .313/.412/.655 with 27 HR, 78 RBI, 58 R, and 52 BB in just 313 at-bats. It was a tremendous rookie season for the youngster, but can he repeat it or exceed it and return value for his current draft position, which is a second-round pick and top-10 outfielder?
It's hard to argue against Alvarez's metrics. He ranked in the top five percent of the league in terms of barrel rate, exit velocity, xSLG, hard-hit rate, and walk rate, but this could be the problem. Because his MLB profile is so limited, it is difficult to tell if he can repeat this success. His minor league numbers tell us that he will certainly hit for power as he hit 56 home runs over 927 at-bats, however, in the minors, he did not hit at quite the prolific rate that he did for the Astros in 2019. He averaged a home run every 11.59 at-bats for the Astros, but only homered every 16.5 at-bats in the minors. Therefore, in 2020 we could certainly see the home run pace drop off from what we saw in 2019.
Alvarez also offers little to no speed. He stole zero bases for the Astros in 2019 and is also projected to hit sixth or seventh in the Astros lineup for 2020, which is a very difficult spot to steal from. The lack of speed is not necessarily a drawback for someone with this type of hit tool, but the fact that he is going in the second round of drafts would make you want a little stolen base potential to have some extra built-in value.
Overall, Alvarez could have a solid season in 2020, but the risk of taking such a young and unproven player with a second-round pick may not be worth the reward, especially since he will have to hit the cover off the ball to return value because he offers little in the way of speed. In this same draft spot, there are proven commodities like Starling Marte and George Springer who are less risky to fantasy owners.
Jorge Soler (KC) - ADP 79.6
Jorge Soler had one of the biggest breakouts in 2019 as far as the outfield position is concerned. He went from virtually being undrafted before the 2019 season to currently being drafted 79th overall, which is a mid-sixth-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues. This is a HUGE jump thanks in large part to a .265/.354/.569 slash line with 48 HR, 117 RBI, 95 R, and 73 BB. The stat line is very impressive, but is it something we can expect him to replicate, thereby reinforcing his ADP? A deeper look into his advanced metrics should help us make this determination.
Soler's advanced power metrics were very strong in 2019. He managed a 16.9% barrel rate, 92.6 mph exit velocity, .593 xSLG, and a 49.9% hard-hit rate. He also paired these power metrics with a solid 10.8% walk rate. Each of the power metrics mentioned ranked Soler in the top five percent of the league, which is superb. The problem here is that they were all career highs as well. You may be asking why it's a problem that Soler reached career highs in 2019 and the answer is that he is not likely to exceed them or even repeat them and his draft value is based on him being able to do this.
The barrel rate of 16.9% exceeded his previous best by over six percent. That is a massive jump and the same can be said for his exit velocity jumping over three percent from the previous two seasons. These types of spikes are not going to be easy to maintain or increase. Ditto for the hard-hit rate that was also six percent higher than his previous career best. These metrics are more than likely to decline in 2020, which will reduce Soler's home run and RBI totals. Also, we are not 100% sure what the baseball is going to be like in 2020 either. Once you take away some of his power and home run totals, he does not leave you much in the way of average or speed, and therefore should not be going this high in drafts. He can still be a valuable piece to a fantasy team, just be cautious about how high you draft him.
Danny Santana (TEX) - ADP 137.2
Danny Santana is one of those 2019 breakouts that pretty much no one saw coming. He also went from going undrafted in 2019 to now being an 11th-round pick in 12-team mixed leagues. He put together the breakout performance by slashing .283/.324/.534 with 28 HR, 81 RBI, 81 R, 25 BB, and 21 SB. It was a tremendous season for the one-time Minnesota Twin and was good enough to rank him in the top 100 in most mixed leagues. In 2020, he is being drafted with hopes of him returning similar value in the way of power and speed. Whether or not he is likely to do this is another story.
First, his power metrics were way above his career norms. For instance, his exit velocity was four mph higher than his career average and his xSLG of .496 was nearly 100 points higher than his career average of .399. All this power translated into a career-high 28 home runs. Before 2019, Santana had never hit more than seven(!) in a season. He also added in a hard-hit rate of 43.6, which was a ridiculous 8.1% above his career average. These power metrics seem unsustainable for a guy that has never shown this type of power over the parts of seven seasons. Also, keep in mind that the Rangers will be playing in a new ballpark that is expected to be neutral to hitters after playing at Globe Life Park, which was ranked third in park factors for runs scored and 12th for home runs in 2019.
In 2019, Santana also provided value to fantasy owners via the stolen base as he managed to snag a career-high 21 bags. This number also seems unattainable in 2020 as he averages approximately 22 stolen bases per 162 games played throughout his career. If he played another 130 games in 2020, you could expect to get somewhere around 18 stolen bases, possibly less considering his 2019 sprint speed only ranked him in the top 70th percentile.
All of this information adds up to him being drafted too high for 2020. In this same area (round 11) you would be getting more value from a player like Oscar Mercado, who should also provide some pop and has a sprint speed ranked in the 97th percentile.
