PGA Betting Advice: WGC Mexico - Head-To-Head Selections

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best head-to-head plays for the WGC Mexico.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-37-7), netting over 48 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

*** I am not a fan of no-cut events. We lose a lot of our edge that we gain by strategically finding missed cut potential and not having to worry about four rounds. There are no odds out at the time of me writing this section, but I wouldn't anticipate a substantial card this weekend.

Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen -135

Reasons I Liked the Play: I believe we are catching a good number here on Paul Casey, who is getting slightly disrespected by the market after consecutive poor results at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational. Casey hasn't always demonstrated winning upside of his own, but the dynamic of this being a no-cut tournament does alter the way we need to handicap the proceedings. There is no arguing that Louis Oosthuizen comes into the week with blazing hot form, but I am willing to gamble that his lack of upside and bloated price tag have him marginally overvalued against a fellow world-class player.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: There are just too many uncertainties with this wager for it to be considered anything other than a number grab. I do think there to be about a 3.5 percent edge in terms of implied win probability, but it is a marginal spot that gets even further decreased at a no-cut event like the WGC Mexico. Oosthuizen isn't someone I am actively looking to fade, although I do expect this price to start gravitating towards Casey as the week progresses.

1.00 Unit to win 1.15

Last Week's Results:

1-0-0 ( 1.10 Units)

We ended our cold run at the Genesis Invitational by just getting back to the basics of finding missed cut potential on the opposite side of the wager. Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners gave us a rather large edge of about six percent in terms of implied win probability, which is a substantial amount for this article. To put that into perspective, our premium play in the 'Vegas Report' typically hovers around that total, but the 10 percent edge we got on Cameron Smith (+120) over Cameron Champ pushed everything down the pecking order for the week.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

10-8-0 (+3.52 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-2-1)

+7.29 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

2017 Golf Betting:
Yearly Record:

Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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