RADIO
Week 16 of the NFL season brings some uninspiring matchups in many cases but it also offers a three-game schedule on Saturday. Take the good with the bad.
Saturday’s matchups aren’t bad, either. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going nowhere fast but they are entertaining and host a Houston Texans team that is tied for the lead in the AFC South.
The New England Patriots are used to cruising to the AFC East title and they are in the lead this year with a 10-3 record, but the Buffalo Bills are just one game behind at 9-4. Can the Bills catch the reeling Pats? It could depend on what kind of sideline footage the Patriots already have in the bank.
The 8-5 Los Angeles Rams are scrambling for a playoff spot and it won’t come easily with a visit to San Francisco to take on the 11-2 49ers, but that should be a competitive game to wrap up the day.
Here are some angles to consider before making your Monkey Knife Fight prop picks Saturday’s triple-header football action.
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HOUSTON-TAMPA BAY
MORE OR LESS
Jameis Winston LESS THAN 329.5 PASSING YARDS – As outrageous as this number appears, Winston has thrown for 330 or more yards in seven of 14 games this season. He’s thrown for more than 450 yards in back-to-back games and is facing a Texans Defense that has below average pass defense numbers (266.1 yards per game, 7.6 yards per attempt) and, yet, Winston is also going into the game missing his first two receivers with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured. Can he go for 330-plus with Breshad Perriman as his No. 1 target?
Deshaun Watson MORE THAN 287.5 PASSING YARDS – Watson doesn’t typically put up huge passing numbers and has gone over 287 yards five times in 14 games this season. The advantage is that he gets to face a Bucs defense that is allowing 276.8 passing yards per game, the third-highest average in the league.
Breshad Perriman MORE THAN 13.5 FANTASY POINTS – Drafted in the first round by the Baltimore Ravens in 2015, Perriman had been a disappointment but is getting a chance to resurrect his career in Tampa Bay and with Evans and Godwin hurt, he’s climbing the depth chart late in the season. He has 13 catches for 270 yards and four touchdowns in the past three games and should get significantly more looks against the Texans.
RAPID FIRE
DeAndre Hopkins -23.5 receiving yards vs. Will Fuller – Consistency is the edge for Hopkins against his teammate. Hopkins has not had a phenomenal season, by his high standards, averaging 81.6 yards per game, but he’s had back-to-back 100-yard games and has more than 60 receiving yards in seven of the past eight games. Fuller is such a deep threat that he can explode for huge numbers in any given week and has 140-yard and 217-yard games this season, but he also has a much lower floor.
Carlos Hyde -19.5 rushing yards vs. Ronald Jones – Hyde has relatively quietly crossed the 1,000-yard threshold and is averaging 73.1 rushing yards per contest. Jones has not been nearly the same kind of threat for the Bucs and has more than 50 yards rushing once in the past six weeks.
BUFFALO-NEW ENGLAND
MORE OR LESS
Tom Brady LESS THAN 220.5 PASSING YARDS – He might be the best quarterback in the history of the game but the Patriots don’t have enough receivers who can consistently get open. He has been held under 220 passing yards in four of the past five games and the Bills Defense is formidable, allowing 190.5 passing yards per game and 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
Josh Allen LESS THAN 190.5 PASSING YARDS – Although Allen is averaging 205.4 passing yards per game, he has been held under 190 in three of the past four and faces a Patriots team that is allowing 170.3 passing yards per game, second-fewest in the league, and 5.7 yards per attempt, the lowest mark in the league. This game could be a grind when two strong defenses meet two mediocre offenses.
John Brown LESS THAN 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS – While the Bills’ No. 1 receiver had been a consistent threat for much of the season, prior to last week’s seven-catch, 99-yard performance, he had three consecutive games with fewer than 40 yards receiving. He did have 69 yards receiving in the first game against the Patriots this season.
RAPID FIRE
Devin Singletary -8.5 rushing yards vs. Sony Michel – Singletary has been on a nice late-season run for the Bills, averaging 84 rushing yards per game over the past five. Michel has had some decent performances this season, including 89 rushing yards against the Bengals last week, but he’s averaging 53.0 rushing yards with some pretty big swings from the highest to the lowest.
Julian Edelman -1.5 receptions vs. James White – Since Edelman is the only wide receiver that Tom Brady appears to trust, he’s going to get his looks and in the second half of the season (since Week 9), he’s averaging 6.5 receptions per game. White was more productive early in the season and has averaged 3.8 receptions per game since Week 9, so the edge does appear to be with Edelman.
L.A. RAMS-SAN FRANCISCO
MORE OR LESS
Jared Goff LESS THAN 250.5 PASSING YARDS – Goff has surpassed 280 yards in three straight games and is averaging 285.4 passing yards per game this season but he’s going up against the Niners, who allow a league-low 154.4 passing yards per game, and limited Goff to 78 yards in a disastrous Week 6 performance.
Jimmy Garoppolo LESS THAN 249.5 PASSING YARDS – While Jimmy G does have the potential to go big, he has managed to exceed 250 passing yards six times in 14 games and the while the Rams’ pass defense isn’t at the level of the 49ers, it is still formidable, allowing just 220.6 passing yards per game.
George Kittle MORE THAN 5.5 RECEPTIONS – The modern prototype of a tight end, Kittle is coming off of a game with 13 catches for 134 yards against New Orleans. He has put up at least six receptions in nine of 12 games this season.
RAPID FIRE
Robert Woods +7.5 receiving yards vs. George Kittle – Prior to last week’s 17-yard effort, Woods had posted at least 90 yards in each of the four previous games. He’s averaging 73.1 receiving yards per game, which is less than a yard behind Kittle’s average so take a shot with an underdog that has some legit upside in his own right.
Raheem Mostert +0.5 rushing yards vs. Todd Gurley – Even though the Rams have started to use Gurley more in recent weeks, the same goes for Mostert with the 49ers, and Mostert has earned those carries with his production. At the very least, in a close matchup it’s worth taking the running back for the favored team because there may be more opportunities to run out the clock.
