Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 16 Analysis

Phil Clark looks back at Week 16 targets, snaps, receptions trends for fantasy football WRs to find risers and fallers who are possible buy-lows or sell-highs.

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. Congratulations to all of you who were able to fulfill your championship aspirations in Week 16. If you are involved in Week 17 matchups that will determine your league winner, an expansive collection of tools are available in this article to help with your decisions during this critical week. The data in this weekly statistical breakdown will be specific to the wide receiver position.

This will be the 16th installment that examines game-specific numbers, including updated totals for targets, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a compilation of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers have been utilized, and how effectively they have capitalized on their opportunities.

This week’s article will be functioning with 16 weeks of data, which bolsters the foundation from which the numbers that are generated in various categories can be evaluated. All noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation of this weekly analysis. Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, and Football Outsiders were all used as resources in compiling this data.

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Week 16 Target Leaders 

Michael Thomas continues to lead the league in overall targets by a sizable margin. He has now accumulated 176 through the Saints’ first 15 matchups, which is a full 26 more than second-place DeAndre Hopkins (150). Julian Edelman is third overall (146), followed by Julio Jones (144), Allen Robinson (142), Tyler Boyd (141), Keenan Allen (139), D.J. Moore (135), Jarvis Landry (131), then Odell Beckham and Robert Woods each with 127.

Cooper Kupp is next with 124, followed by Tampa Bay teammates Chris Godwin (121) and Mike Evans (118). Devante Parker and Courtland Sutton are tied with 117, followed by John Brown (115), Davante Adams (114), Amari Cooper (114), and D.J. Chark (113), with Jamison Crowder (112) and Kenny Golladay (112) completing the top 20 in overall targets.

Thomas has now collected 10+ targets in three consecutive matchups and has also accomplished that feat during 10 of his last 11 games. That has expanded his season total to 12 contests in which he has captured a double-digit target total. Edelman has attained 10+ targets in 10 different matchups while Allen has achieved it in nine different games.

Just one week ago, Thomas was the only wide receiver that had an active streak of two consecutive games with double-digit targets. Now, six other players have joined Thomas in accumulating 10+ targets during two straight contests - Jones, Robinson, Allen, Adams, Sutton, and Steven Sims.

Thomas has also accumulated the most targets since Week 13 (52), followed by Woods (47), Robinson (46), Adams (45), Jones (43), Hopkins (38), Boyd (38), and Crowder (35). Four different receivers are tied with 34 - Parker, Landry, Edelman, Anthony Miller. Cooper is next (33), followed by seven receivers with 32 targets -Amendola, Beasley, Allen, Sutton, Golladay, Moore, and Steven Sims. Anderson and Gallup are tied with 31, while Beckham (30) and Sterling Shepard (30) are the only other wide receivers that have collected 30+ targets since Week 13.

Jones has also accrued the most targets since Week 15 (35), followed by Thomas (29), Adams (29), Robinson (26), Parker (22), Boyd (22), Sims (21), Allen (20), Sutton (20), and Woods (20). Golladay, Beckham, Crowder and James Washington have all collected 19 targets, while Breshad Perriman and Cole Beasley have captured 18.

Largest Weekly Changes

Thomas unsurprisingly led all receivers in targets during Week 16 matchups as he stockpiled a season-high 17. Adams also established a new season high with his 16 targets, while Jones, Boyd, and Parker all accrued 15 targets in Week 16. John Ross was next with 13 targets, which was his second double-digit total of the season.

Five receivers were targeted 12 times - Robinson, Cooper, Golladay, Cole Beasley, and Breshad Perriman, while Woods, Michael Gallup, and Golden Tate all captured 11. Keenan Allen was joined by Justin Watson, Sutton, and Steven Sims in attaining 10 targets, while no other wide receivers reached double digits during their Week 16 matchups.

Amari Cooper has registered just two targets in three different contests this season including his matchup in Week 15. But his weekly total soared to 12 in Week 16, which was his highest since Week 10. While his owners would have preferred that his increased usage would equate to better production (4 receptions/24 yards), Cooper’s weekly increase of +10 tied him with Ross for the largest improvement of the week. Ross was performing in his third contest since returning from an eight-game absence (shoulder), and his season-high 13 targets represented his first double-digit total since Week 1. Ross’s teammate Tyler Boyd, DeVante Parker Michael Gallup and Justin Watson all attained weekly increases of +8.

From Weeks 11-15, only two receivers accumulated more targets than Anthony Miller’s 52. He also accrued 10+ targets three times during that five-game span, including a career-best 15 in Week 15. Unfortunately for his owners, Miller was targeted only twice in Week 16. That resulted in the largest weekly decrease of -13. A.J. Brown captured a career-high 13 targets in Week 15. But he was only targeted twice in Week 16, which was his lowest total since Week 5. That created the second-largest week to week reduction of -11. Danny Amendola and D.J. Moore both experienced declines of -10. However, Moore’s diminished total resulted from his limited involvement following a concussion (6 snaps).

Robinson only accumulated 10+ targets in one matchup between Weeks 2-11. But he has now accomplished it in four of his last five games. Courtland Sutton has been targeted 10 times in two straight games, after failing to reach a double-digit target total during his first 13 contests.

Adams has now assembled a double-digit target total in seven of his last eight matchups, and his usage and production will be examined further in the Five Things I Noticed section. Edelman had eclipsed 10+ targets in eight consecutive games from Weeks 6-14. But he has only been targeted a total of 11 times during New England’s last two matchups.

Brandin Cooks averaged an anemic 3.1 targets-per-game from Week 5-14 but has averaged 7.0 per-game since Week 15. Cole Beasley eclipsed 10+ targets for the third time this season when he captured 12 against New England. But it was also the first time that he had accomplished it since Week 4.

Breshad Perriman had never attained a double-digit target total prior to Week 16 (12), and his revitalized career will also be an expanded topic in the Five Things I Noticed section. Kenny Stills had been averaging just 3.8 targets-per-game as he entered Week 16. and just 2.8 per game from Weeks 12-15. But he collected a season-high nine targets against Tampa Bay.

Week 16  Yards-Per-Target Leaders

A.J. Brown leads all wide receivers with a 12.2 yard per target average. He is followed closely by Stefon Diggs (12.1), while Mike Williams is third (11.3). Chris Godwin will finish the season at (11.0), followed by Tyrell Williams (10.2), Kenny Stills (10.2), and Kenny Golladay (10.0). Only those six receivers have averaged at least 10 yards-per- target through 15 games. Terry McLaurin is next (9.9), followed by Mike Evans (9.8), Tyler Lockett (9.7), Randall Cobb (9.7), Michael Thomas (9.6), Amari Cooper (9.6), and three receivers that are tied with a 9.5 yard per target average - Michael Gallup, Tyreek Hill, and James Washington. 

Will Fuller has averaged 9.4 yards-per-target during the 11 games that he has been available, while D.K. Metcalf and Calvin Ridley are tied at 9.3. John Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Darius Slayton are all averaging 9.2, while Julio Jones, Courtland Sutton, DeVante Parker, and Emmanuel Sanders have all attained a 9.1 average. No other wide receivers are averaging over 9 yards-per-target through Week 16.

Tyrell Williams had been averaging 9.5 yards-per-target from Weeks 1-15.  But that number rose to 10.2 after he averaged 20.5 against the Chargers in Week 16. Amari Cooper's season-long average of 10.5 yards-per-target plunged to 9.6 after he averaged just 2.0 in Week 16. Kenny Golladay had been averaging 10.5 yards-per-target entering Week 16. But that overall number dropped to 10.0 after he averaged 5.5 in Week 16 - which was his lowest since Week 3.

Week 16 Targeted Air Yards Leaders 

Mike Williams leads all wide receivers in targeted air yards (17.2), followed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling (16.9), Ted Ginn (15.8), Robby Anderson (15.8), James Washington (15.8), Kenny Golladay (15.3), and Mike Evans (15.3). No other wide receivers have averaged over 15.0 through Week 16. Breshad Perriman’s average has risen to (14.9). which ties him with Stefon Diggs. Curtis Samuel (14.5), Chris Conley (14.4), Darius Slayton (14.2), John Brown (14.2), Terry McLaurin (14.1), Will Fuller (14.0), and John Ross (14.0). Brandon Cooks (13.9), DeVante Parker (13.7), and Tyrell Williams (13.5) spearhead a group of 10 wide receivers who are averaging at least 13.0 targeted air yards.

It was inevitable that Mike Evans would eventually lose the overall lead in air yards due to the premature conclusion of his season. That has now occurred, as Julio Jones has accumulated a league-best 1,808 air yards. Evans remains second with 1,779 and is followed by Kenny Golladay (1,680), John Brown (1,633), Allen Robinson (1,605), and Odell Beckham (1,554). DeVante Parker is next (1,552), followed by DeAndre Hopkins (1,541), D.J. Moore (1,505) and Moore’s teammate Curtis Samuel with (1,460).

Keenan Allen has accrued 1,448 yards, while his teammate Mike Williams is directly behind him with 1,438. Amari Cooper is next (1,434), followed by Michael Thomas (1,405), Stefon Diggs (1,396), D.J. Chark (1,394), Robby Anderson (1,378), Courtland Sutton (1,361), Michael Gallup (1,352), Tyler Boyd (1,324) and Julian Edelman (1,319) completing the top 20.

% Share Of  Team’s Air Yards Leaders

Courtland Sutton continues to lead the league in percentage share of teams air yards (42.6). Stefon Diggs remains second (42.4), followed by Michael Thomas (41.7), Terry McLaurin (39.6), Allen Robinson (39.2), Odell Beckham (39.0),  John Brown (38.7), Robby Anderson (37.2), DeAndre Hopkins (36.5), and Julio Jones 36.0 completing the top 10.

D.J. Chark is next (34.3), followed by Kenny Golladay (34.1), James Washington (33.3), D.J. Moore (32.5), DeVante Parker (32.5), Julian Edelman (32.3), Curtis Samuel (31.6), Mike Williams (31.6), Emmanuel Sanders (31.4), and Tyler Lockett (30.7). Only four additional receivers have attained a percentage share of 30+ - Keenan Allen (30.7), Tyrell Williams (30.2), Chris Conley (30.2), and Jarvis Landry (30.0).

Davante Adams leads Green Bay with a percentage share of 26.5, while Zach Pascal has attained a team-high share of 22.2 with Indianapolis. Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard have combined for a share of 57.1 with the Giants, as Slayton's 22.8 leads the team. Tate is currently second (17.9), while Shepard 16.4 share places him third. Tyreek Hill has attained the highest percentage among Kansas City's wide receivers (23.5). which is 4.5 percent ahead of Sammy Watkins (19.0). Demarcus Robinson is third with a percentage share of 15.1.

Week 16 Red Zone Target Leaders

The name of Michael Thomas has sustained a consistent presence atop the league lead in multiple categories and red zone targets are no exception. His has now accumulated 26, while Julian Edelman remains second overall with 22. Courtland Sutton and Davante Adams are tied for third with 20, followed by Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett and Jarvis Landry all tied with 19, Cooper Kupp has collected 18 red zone targets, while Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans are next with 17. Kenny Golladay and Deebo Samuel have each attained 16, Julio Jones and Marvin Jones are the only other receivers that have captured 15+ red zone targets through Week 16. D.K Metcalf and Mike Williams spearhead a group of seven receivers that have collected 14 red zone targets, while 13 additional receivers have reached a double-digit total for the season. 

Thomas was joined by four other wide receivers that were targeted three times during their Week 16 matchups - Steven Sims, Courtland Sutton, Deebo Samuel, and Alex Erickson. Six different receivers captured two red zone targets in Week 16 - Tyler Boyd, Golden Tate, Keenan Allen, Kenny Golladay, Cody Latimer, and D.J. Chark.

Golladay leads all receivers with 13 targets inside the 10. Landry and Robinson are tied for second (11), while Fitzgerald and Godwin have both assembled 10. A collection of six receivers have all attained nine targets inside the 10 - Thomas, Allen, Edelman, Sutton, and the now-injured tandem of Evans and Marvin Jones has accrued nine. Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel have each captured eight red targets, while four different receivers have collected seven targets inside the 10 - Julio Jones, Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel.

Even though Miller's weekly target total declined significantly, he still garnered one target in the red zone. That extended his streak to five consecutive games with at least one target inside the 20, and he has accumulated a total of eight since Week 12. Erickson had been targeted five times in the red zone from Weeks 1-14. But he has collected four additional targets during Cincinnati's last two games. A.J. Brown had accrued three targets in Weeks 14-15 combined but did not register a target in Week 16.

Week 16 Snap Count Leaders

Chris Godwin had been a mainstay as the league leader in total offensive snaps among wide receivers. But his Week 16 absence enabled DeAndre Hopkins to ascend into the top spot with exactly 1,000 snaps through 15 games. Odell Beckham is now second overall (972), followed by Julian Edelman and Godwin each with (957). Allen Robinson is next (953), followed by Jarvis Landry (948), Tyler Boyd (944), Tyler Lockett (940), John Brown (939), and Kenny Golladay (935) completing the top 10.

Robert Woods is next with (932), followed by D.J. Moore (925), Moore’s teammate Curtis Samuel (924), Michael Thomas (913), Courtland Sutton (897), Robby Anderson (879), Keenan Allen (872), D.K. Metcalf (866), Cooper Kupp (857), and DeVante Parker (847) all contained within the top 20 of offensive snaps through Week 16.

Hopkins also leads all wide receivers in snap count percentage for the season (97.1). Beckham is second once again (95.70), followed by Robinson (93.8), Landry (93.3), Sutton (93.1), John Brown (90.9), Anderson (90.8), Thomas (90.0), Golladay (89.7), and Lockett (89.6).

Tyler Boyd has played on 89.6% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps, while Woods is next with (88.6). He is followed by Allen (87.7), Moore (87.2), Samuel (87.2), Edelman (87.2), Terry McLaurin (86.9), Godwin (86.3), Larry Fitzgerald (84.7), Parker (83.3), Metcalf (82.60), Cooper Kupp (81.5), and Marvin Jones (80.25). No other wide receivers performed on 80% of their teams’ offensive snaps through Week 16.

Five different receivers performed on 100% of the teams’ offensive snaps in Week 16 - A.J. Brown, Miller, Woods, Shepard, and Trevor Davis. Hopkins played on 98.5% of Houston’s snaps, followed by Sanders (98.3), Metcalf (98.3), John Brown (96.3), Golladay (96.0), Justin Watson (95.9), Perriman (95.9), Sanu (95.9), Sutton (95.8), and Christian Kirk (94.2). Robinson (93.7). Anderson (93.4). Adam Thielen (92.6), Boyd (92.3), Gallup (90.3), and Beckham (90.0), completed the list of wide receivers that were involved in at least 90% of their teams’ offensive snaps in Week 16.

Five Things I Noticed

1. One of the most popular topics during the last two weeks has surrounded the wide receiver position for Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans had combined for 2,217 yards and 16 touchdowns as they entered Week 14 and were both among the top three in scoring. But a hamstring injury concluded Evans’ season in Week 14, while Godwin experienced his own hamstring issue in Week 15. Their collective absence fueled extensive conversation regarding the eventual numbers that Breshad Perriman could assemble as his responsibilities continued to rise.

Perriman performed on a season-high 83% of the Buccaneers’ snaps in Week 14, while he generated 70 yards and a touchdown. That count rose to 89% in Week 15, as he exploded for a career-high 113 yards and three touchdowns. His statistical ascent elevated expectations for the fourth-year receiver, as he became a highly coveted roster addition entering Week 16. During his first full game without Evans and Godwin in the lineup, Perriman’s snap count increased even further (96%) while he functioned as Tampa Bay’s WR1 against Houston. Even though he did not replicate the yardage and touchdown results of Week 15, he did establish new career bests in targets (12) and receptions (7) while eclipsing 100 yards for the second consecutive week (113/102).

Perriman’s ability to capitalize on his increased usage has steadily transformed what had been a largely disappointing career. Since Week 13, Perriman has captured 29 targets, is 14th overall in receptions (20), third in yardage (372) and tied for second in touchdowns (4). Any Perriman owners who are playing for league championships in Week 17 should benefit from his continued role as the Buccaneers' primary receiving weapon.

2. Davante Adams was a first-round selection during your draft process, which was understandable considering his outstanding numbers in 2018. Adams finished second overall in targets (169), and receiving touchdowns (13), was fifth in receptions (111), and was also seventh in receiving yards (1,386).

But the return on that level of investment was hardly what owners had envisioned earlier this season, as Adams was just WR56 in scoring as he entered Week 10. That was largely a byproduct of the lingering toe issue that forced his absence from Weeks 5-8. However, he had also failed to generate a touchdown from Weeks 1-10 and did not surpass 56 yards in three of his first five contests.

But during his last six matchups, Adams has firmly re-established his place among the league’s WR1s. Since Week 12, Adams is second only to Michael Thomas in targets (57), second in targets-per-game average (11.4), third in receptions (37), and tied for second in touchdowns (4). He has also accrued a double-digit target total in seven of his last eight games, while also averaging 80.5 yards-per-game during his last six matchups.

Adams has also eclipsed 100 yards in five different games, which ties him for fourth overall despite his four-week absence. That includes the 116 yards that he accrued against Minnesota in Week 16, which was the second consecutive week that he has surpassed 100. Adams also established new season highs in targets (16), and receptions (13) versus the Vikings and has now climbed to 14^th in points-per-game fantasy scoring - despite the uninspiring early weeks of his season. Adams' ADP will not replicate the 1.08 that transpired this season. However, he can present exceptional value as a second-round selection, with the prospects of producing as a WR1 in 2020.

3. Greg Ward was an undrafted rookie when he joined the Eagles in 2017. He was released on several occasions, performed in the AAF, and re-signed with Philadelphia in April. But he only accumulated two offensive snaps from Weeks 1-11 and did not register a target until Week 12. However, Ward's snap count percentage has expanded to 78% since Week 14, while he has also accumulated 33 targets (6.6 per game) during Philadelphia’s last five matchups. That places Ward 28^th among all receivers during that sequence, while he is also 27^th in receptions (22). 

That easily leads Eagle wide receivers in those categories, as an escalating injury problem has severely depleted Carson Wentz’s receiving weaponry. Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor played in just four games combined after Week 10, while the collective reception totals for both veterans and  J.J. Arcega-Whiteside were three fewer than Ward (19). Ward has paced Eagle wide receivers during three consecutive matchups while operating in the slot on 70.8% of his routes. He has also collected six red zone targets from Wentz since Week 12, while his yards-per-target average has risen steadily during his last four games (1.7/3.8/6.8/14.2).

If you are playing for a league championship in Week 17, Ward can function as a valuable resource in your lineup. Not only will he continue to operate as Philadelphia’s primary option at wide receiver, but the rib issue that has impacted Zach Ertz could elevate Ward’s importance within the Eagles’ passing attack even further. Ward will also be the beneficiary of an appealing matchup against a Giants pass defense that has yielded 70+ yards to seven different wide receivers during their last six matchups.

4. Ward is not the only wide receiver from the NFC East who has exploded into fantasy relevance during December. Rookie Steven Sims was targeted just 20 times from Weeks 1-13 (1.7 per game) and collected 14 of those passes for 80 yards during that sequence. However, he has accumulated 28 targets during Washington’s last three matchups, which is a total that has been exceeded by just six wide receivers - Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Robert Woods. Sims has captured 15 of those targets which place him 134th at his position in receptions, while he is also tied for second with three touchdowns during that three-week span.

The undrafted free agent was involved in just 12.9% of Washington’s offensive snaps from Weeks 1-11. But Sims was elevated into an expanded role when Trey Quinn experienced a concussion during the Redskins' Week 13 matchup with Carolina. Sims' snap count has remained above 70% since Week 14, as he has commandeered an ongoing role in the slot. Sims led Washington in targets during the Redskins’ matchups in both Weeks 15 and 16 (11/10), while tying fellow first-year receiver Terry McLaurin for the team-high in Week 14 (7).

The increased usage has also fueled a surge in production, as Sims has established a new season-high yardage total in three consecutive games (40/45/64). He has also generated three touchdowns during that span while becoming an integral component in Washington’s passing attack. McLaurin remains the team’s primary receiving weapon. But Sims’ leads the Redskins in targets since Week 13 (32/ 8-per game), followed by McLaurin (25/6.3 per game), Kelvin Harmon (18/4.5 per game), running back Chris Thompson (17/4.3 per game), and tight end Jeremy Sprinkle (9/2.3 per game). Sims will remain heavily involved in the passing attack this week and can be started with confidence against Dallas.

5. If you started Ryan Fitzpatrick as your quarterback during a Week 16 championship matchup, then there is an excellent chance that you won your league. He connected on 31 of his 52 passes while generating season highs in yardage (419) and touchdowns (4) against Cincinnati. Miami’s extensive reliance on Fitzpatrick has elevated the Dolphins to second in pass play percentage (65.72), while the abysmal state of the team’s 32nd ranked ground game (72.9 yards-per-game) is underscored by the fact that 37-year old Fitzgerald remains Miami’s leading rusher. Since Week 11, Fitzpatrick is second among all quarterbacks with 1,845 passing yards and is also second in passing attempts (253). The Dolphins' consistent dependence on their aerial attack has also bolstered the production of their primary receivers while resuscitating the career of DeVante Parker.

Parker led the Dolphins in targets (15), and receiving yards (111) in Week 16, and has now been targeted 55 times (9.2 per game) since Week 11. That places him ninth among all wide receivers during that span. Parker is also second overall with 596 receiving yards during his last five contests and is tied with Michael Thomas for the league lead in touchdowns (5). His season-long numbers now include career highs in targets (117), receptions (64), yardage (1,065), and touchdowns (9), while he has also soared to WR8 in scoring.

Albert Wilson attained new season highs in receptions (7) and yardage (79) in Week 16 and is now second among Miami’s receiving weaponry in targets (35/5.8 per game) and receptions (27) since Week 11. Former seventh-round pick (2017) Isaiah Ford produced  68 yards with his five catches in Week 16 and has now collected 14 of his 20 targets for 181 yards since Week 14. Allen Hurns has been contending with ankle and knee issues but did contribute 41 yards on two receptions against Cincinnati. Despite the encouraging output from Wilson and Ford in recent weeks, Parker is the only Dolphin receiver that should be started against New England.

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