RADIO
There have been some high-quality NFL matchups this late in the season and the Monday nighter between the 8-3 Minnesota Vikings and 9-2 Seattle Seahawks should qualify as a big game.
The Vikings have the second-best point differential in the NFC, at plus-84, and have won six of their past seven games, with the only loss coming by a field goal at Kansas City. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has improved dramatically from early in the season and he has the support of Dalvin Cook, one of the most productive running backs in football this season.
The Seahawks have only lost twice all season – both at home, strangely enough, against the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Russell Wilson is the engine that drives the Seahawks and Chris Carson is a reliable runner but the receiver corps has probably been better than expected.
Tyler Lockett was on the upswing coming into this season but D.K. Metcalf is a rookie and Jacob Hollister was a spare part tight end before stepping into a bigger role with the Seahawks. Josh Gordon, who has had quite the up-and-down career, is getting another chance to make it work after he was cut loose by the New England Patriots. That doesn’t necessarily sound like the skill position foundation for a great NFL team but Wilson makes it all work and the Vikings will have to find a way to put pressure on Seattle’s star quarterback.
Here are some angles to consider before making your prop picks for the Monday nighter Monkey Knife Fight.
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MINNESOTA-SEATTLE
OVER/UNDERS
Kirk Cousins OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS – In five of the past seven games the Vikings quarterback has passed for more than 280 yards, a sudden emergence after a slow start to the season. He’s also ridiculously accurate, connecting for at least 70% of his passes in eight of his past nine games. Going up against a Seahawks team that allows 268.7 passing yards per game, the fourth-highest mark in the league, leaves open the possibility that Cousins can get loose again.
Russell Wilson UNDER 265.5 PASSING YARDS – As great as Wilson has been this season, he doesn’t tend to put up huge passing numbers, held under 265 yards in six of the past eight games. The Vikings are allowing 244.5 passing yards per game, which is below average, but not quite as vulnerable.
Dalvin Cook UNDER 86.5 RUSHING YARDS – In the Vikings’ last game, in Week 11, Cook was left with a season-low 26 rushing yards against Denver, but he’s gone for more than 86 yards in seven of 11 games this season. At the same time, the Seahawks are allowing 101.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks in the Top 10 for yards against, but they are also giving up 4.5 yards per carry, which is below average. So it’s possible that Cook goes off but 87 yards is not an easy touch.
Tyler Lockett UNDER 72.5 RECEIVING YARDS – The Seahawks receiver is banged up a bit and has four catches for 64 yards on six targets in his past two games. Minnesota’s pass defense is solid enough and with Lockett not quite at peak performance right now it might be easier to take the under this week.
RAPID FIRE
Stefon Diggs -1.5 receptions vs. Tyler Lockett – With Adam Thielen out for the Vikings, there should be plenty of looks for Diggs, who has gone for more than 100 yards in four of the past six games. However, he’s also not getting a ton of targets, averaging 7.0 targets per game in those six games, but Diggs is still the preferred side compared to Lockett.
Chris Carson +25.5 rushing yards vs. Dalvin Cook – Both the Seahawks and Vikings have above-average run defenses and that defensive competence makes it difficult to like Cook by such a wide margin. Carson is averaging 79.9 rushing yards per game, with more than 85 yards in six of his past eight games. Cook is putting up 95.5 rushing yards per game and in his past six games, half are over and half are under 80 yards. Getting the extra 25.5 yards with Carson tilts this in his direction.
D.K. Metcalf -0.5 receptions vs. Jacob Hollister – Metcalf, the Seahawks rookie wide receiver, has emerged as a consistent threat and in the past five games he is averaging 4.4 receptions and 7.8 targets per game. Hollister, stepping into the starter’s role at tight end for the Seahawks, has become more of an impact player, too, but has a foot injury and has averaged 3.8 receptions on 5.6 targets per game in the past five games. Those numbers, combined with Hollister’s health status, swings the pendulum towards Metcalf.
