RADIO
As the NFL moves towards the middle portion of the season, teams and players have started to stake out what they are going to be this season. Some might be disappointing but we are also far enough into the season to be encouraged by the positive results.
There is still enough time for change but it’s reasonable enough to look at the results thus far and be optimistic about the performances of (now injured) Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson. There are also veterans like Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady still getting it done.
Christian McCaffrey is in a league of his own among running backs but Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, and Alvin Kamara are also among those churning out yards on the ground. Kamara’s absence this week could be a problem for the Saints.
The list of leading receivers is more surprising. Michael Thomas is up there, but so too are Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, and Cooper Kupp.
In any case, here are some angles to consider before making your Week Seven prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Daniel Jones UNDER 267.5 PASSING YARDS – Since his blockbuster first start at Tampa Bay, Danny Dimes has thrown for 568 yards in the past three games. His supporting cast hasn’t been healthy but Jones will have star running back Saquon Barkley back in the lineup this week so the Giants may be inclined to run more frequently. The complicating factor is that they face a Cardinals Defense that has allowed 281.5 passing yards per game, the third highest number in the league.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – With Davante Adams out, Rodgers’ upside takes a hit and he has thrown for 521 yards in the past two games (which is an average of 260.5 yards) so this is a slight lean towards the under.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – Watson is a playmaker but also one who can make a difference on the game without putting up huge passing yardage. He threw for 280 yards last week and it was the fourth time in six games that he was held to 280 or fewer yards and, this week, he faces a Colts Defense that has surrendered 242.0 passing yards per game.
Kyler Murray OVER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – Arizona’s star rookie has thrown for more than 300 yards three times in his first six NFL starts and faces a Giants Defense that is giving up 285 passing yards per game, the second-highest mark in the league.
Matt Ryan UNDER 320.5 PASSING YARDS – The Falcons stink out loud and Ryan, who is averaging a league-leading 335.2 passing yards per game, might have to throw 50 times against the Rams this week but the Rams just bolstered their secondary with the addition of Jalen Ramsey so this lofty number might be too much for Ryan.
Jared Goff UNDER 306.5 PASSING YARDS – After last week’s embarrassing 78-yard passing performance against San Francisco, it’s difficult to get fired up for Goff even when he’s going against a Falcons team that is more than a little suspect defensively.
RAPID FIRE
Evan Engram +0.5 receptions vs. DeAndre Hopkins – Somewhat surprisingly, the numbers are close, with Hopkins averaging 6.7 receptions per game compared to Engram’s 6.6 receptions per game this season. Couple that with Engram facing an Arizona team that has allowed a league-high 7.7 receptions per game to tight ends and Hopkins facing a Colts defense that has allowed 11.4 receptions per game by wide receivers which is the ninth-lowest average in the league.
Julio Jones -10.5 receiving yards vs. Cooper Kupp – By the numbers, Kupp is averaging more receiving yards per game (87 to 77.2) this season but the likelihood is that the Rams will have a lead against the Falcons which opens up the door for Jones to get a bunch of targets while the Rams may not need as much from their receiving corps this week.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Lamar Jackson OVER 238.5 PASSING YARDS – Although he has not been as prolific in the past couple of games, Jackson threw for more than 245 yards in each of the first four games of the season. He’s facing a Seahawks team that has allowed 268 passing yards per game and it should be a competitive game which means that Jackson could be throwing right to the end.
Teddy Bridgewater 228.5 PASSING YARDS – In the past couple of weeks, Bridgewater appears to be getting more comfortable as a passer, throwing for 554 yards. The Bears are allowing 229.2 passing yards per game so this number is reasonable but with Alvin Kamara out of the lineup, the Saints may need to have Bridgewater throw more frequently against Chicago.
Ryan Tannehill UNDER 219.5 PASSING YARDS – Making his first start for the Titans, Tannehill faces a Chargers Defense that has allowed just 201.2 passing yards per game. With the expectation that the Titans may want to steer their offense in the direction of the Derrick Henry-led running game, keep expectations modest for Tannehill.
Mitchell Trubisky OVER 216.5 PASSING YARDS – Coming back to start for the Bears after missing a couple of weeks with a left shoulder injury, Trubisky faces a Saints Defense that is allowing 237.7 passing yards per game, enough to think that Mitch could go for 220 and that would work.
Philip Rivers UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Averaging 297.5 passing yards per game, his highest mark since 2015, Rivers does go up against a Titans Defense that has allowed 217.3 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt. That better-than-average opposition moves the needle towards the under.
Russell Wilson OVER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – The Ravens Defense is formidable but Wilson has thrown for more than 260 yards in four of the past five games and Baltimore is giving up 269.5 passing yards per game. Making his case for MVP, Wilson should continue to put up big passing numbers.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -11.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Lockett – While Lockett has 13 receptions in the past three games, he’s also been targeted just 13 times in those three games so he’s facing an uphill battle against Thomas, who has been targeted 13 times three times in six games this season. That usage makes Thomas more appealing.
Mark Andrews +0.5 receptions vs. Keenan Allen – The Ravens tight end is averaging 5.8 receptions per game and faces a Seahawks team that is allowing 5.8 receptions per game to opposing tight ends. Allen certainly has a higher ceiling but his floor might be lower, too, as he has 11 catches on 17 targets in the past three games.
