ADP Showdown - Corey Davis vs Courtland Sutton

Two wide receivers who are considered number ones on their team, but what is this really worth? In the Case of Courtland Sutton, this could change based on the health of Emmanuel Sanders and the talent of Daesean Hamilton. However, in the case of both of the options in this article, a bigger worry is the offense they are in.

Both of their teams want to run the ball. Both also have quarterbacks which mean it might be better if they did just that. We will obviously have to wait and see when the season comes to find out just how these offenses play. But looking ahead, it doesn’t look promising for either one.

Both are going late enough in drafts where neither of these players should be relied on as a weekly starter, and a flier is really what we are looking at here. So, which will be the best fit for the ceiling play we are looking for?

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Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

WR40, Pick 9.03

The man in Tennessee has a clear path to be the number one for his team. Even with A.J. Brown being drafted this season, the first-round draft pick from 2017 should still be the number one target for Marcus Mariota.

After a rookie season marred by injury, Davis came into 2018 with something to prove. He did have a few solid games in 2018, but overall the season and his four touchdowns were still a big disappointment for Davis truthers. And there are still many.

Coming into this season, not only does Delanie Walker come back and A.J. Brown enter the fold, but Adam Humphries also joins the team to take even more targets away from Davis. 65 receptions for 891 yards and four touchdowns is not going to cut it from a WR1 in an offense. Unless the offense is stacked with others surrounding the player in question, and the Titans are not stacked by any means. This means Davis is not a good receiver one, but it also means, luckily for us, he is no longer going in the fourth or fifth round of drafts the way he has played the past two seasons.

Going in the ninth round these numbers are wonderful. Players going in the same area are either at risk of missing time, like Keke Coutee or Golden Tate, or don’t have a secure position on their offense like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. These players for sure could provide more upside and a higher ceiling, but their floor is far lower and may crater the middle of your draft. Who is to say that their ceiling is even higher? Of all those players mentioned, Golden Tate is the only one to have the potential to be the WR1 for their team. The others are clearly either number two or three on the pecking order and this will limit the value they can bring. Even on higher powered offenses such as Houston and Green Bay.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

WR43, Pick 9.09

Sutton, while on just as bad an overall offense has a lot more weaponry around him. However, not only does this help him, but also adds competition for targets. If Sanders comes back fully healthy, he will return to the number one position on the team. A lot of love is also being given to Hamilton, the second-year player from Penn State. Both of these players are good, and both could significantly limit the potential of Sutton coming into his own second season.

With Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman also playing major roles in the offense, the low-flying Broncos may not have room to provide value for any of them let alone all of them. Currently, Sutton is being drafted the highest of all the receivers, which also means he presents the most risk. Sure, he could return value if he hits. He was much better last season when he was behind Sanders than he was after Sanders went down for the season. He is not the alpha type receiver, and this lends well to a secondary role, but this secondary role also means less production overall.

Mike Clay at ESPN has Hamilton as the #1 receiver in Denver with only 75 receptions. If Emmanuel Sanders is back healthy and Noah Fant has a good rookie season. What is going to be there for Sutton?

Joe Flacco has a monster of an arm. This means a downfield threat like Sutton should be a good pick. But Flacco also loves the short routes. Whether it be Noah Fant at tight end, Hamilton or Sanders in the slot, these are the players to own in Denver. The arm is there for Flacco, but the mindset is not. He prescribes to the K.I.S.S. method of football. This means run the ball, pass short and move down the field. Avoid the big play mistakes which could arise. and hopefully, win. This does not fit well with the game of Sutton and it makes me nervous.

Conclusion

As we stated earlier, the most important thing to look for in late-round picks is the ceiling. Corey Davis has a high potential ceiling, but the case of Sutton his ceiling is a doorway. It is much lower and therefore he provides much less appeal at this draft price. Is he a bad pick in the ninth round? No. It is hard to say anyone is a bad draft pick this late. But he certainly does not have the potential of others surrounding him in this region. Or even players going after him like Trey Quinn or his teammate Hamilton.

You could do worse than having Sutton on your team at this price for sure. But for me, it is still a bit too much of a risk and I would rather take a flier running back here and save my late-round wide receiver picks for those who could produce at a higher level. Even with a lower potential floor.