Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 14

Connelly Doan identifies pitchers whose impressive and underwhelming strikeout rates could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball for Week 14.

Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 14! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise holds particular importance for fantasy value. Understanding strikeout trends and the stats behind them can help you sort through all the noise and determine which pitchers are legit and which pitchers should be avoided.

The players in this article were chosen using RotoBaller’s K% Risers and Fallers premium Tool. This tool identifies players who are surging and falling in strikeout percentage over the last 30 days. The goal of this tool is to help you find pitchers who are showing improving or declining K%.

Not a ton has changed over the K rate landscape from last week to this week, so there will be a few repeat names on this list, but analyzed from a new perspective. Let's take a look at two fantasy-relevant K rate risers and fallers to see what's going on with their games and what fantasy players can expect from them going forward.

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Strikeout Rate Risers

All stats current as of Sunday, June 30

Lance Lynn - Texas Rangers

Season K%: 26.3%, Last 30 Days: 30.6%

I wrote about Lance Lynn in the risers column two weeks ago, calling him a buy-low candidate. He finds himself here again and has since improved to 10-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 108 innings pitched. Let's compare what I had said last time to Lynn's most recent performances.    

First, I found that Lynn had simply been pitching better of late across the board and that trend has continued. Over the 30 days, he has posted a 2.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 48 strikeouts in 40 1/3 IP. Lynn has gone at least seven innings in each of his last three starts and has racked up six, nine, and 10 strikeouts. His 3.05 SIERA supports his performances, suggesting that he has been legit.

Second, I found that Lynn's BABIP was not supported by his batted-ball profile. Lynn has had a strong batted-profile all season (86.7-MPH average exit velocity, 32.5% hard-hit rate, 12.4-degree launch angle), but his BABIP at the time (.349) was much higher than his career mark of .304. Lynn's BABIP has since fallen to .329, matching the regression that would be expected.

Lynn is not a sexy fantasy option but his peripherals have started to move towards what is suggested under the hood. He looks like he could be a solid back-end rotation piece for the second half of the season. Lynn's strikeout numbers have been strong and his batted-ball profile suggests that he has performed better than his ERA and WHIP suggest. He is a still a buy-low candidate heading into the second half.

Wade Miley - Houston Astros

Season K%: 20.5%, Last 30 Days: 23.9%

Our second K rate riser was the top riser last week and is still towards the top this week, but has a significantly lower 30-day K rate from last week. Wade Miley has been great all season, going 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 20.5% K rate. His 30-day mark last week was an impressive 30.4%, but this week it is a much lower 23.9%. We have seen several versions of Miley's strikeout potential throughout the season, so which should owners expect in the second half of the season?     

Miley's drop in relative K rate over the last week can be easily explained. He racked up a mere two strikeouts in his last outing against the Mariners, which is discouraging as the M's have the most strikeouts in the league. The good thing is that the start was a good one overall. Miley went six innings, allowing a single run on three hits and two walks. Fantasy owners may be disappointed by the lack of K's but will gladly take this stat line any day.

A two-strikeout game is low, but I would not be surprised to see Miley's strikeout numbers to continue to trend down towards his season average. Miley has pitched smart over the course of the season but does not have overpowering stuff. He has relied almost exclusively on a fastball-changeup combination this season (62.7% combined usage of cutter and four-seamer, 17.9% changeup usage) and it has been keeping hitters off balance. However, with a fastball less than 90 MPH, it seems unreasonable to expect higher-end strikeout numbers from him.

I think that Miley is a legitimate fantasy option and has been a huge fantasy value given where he was being drafted. I don't think he will give you big strikeout numbers but will continue to help contending fantasy teams in the second half.

Strikeout Rate Fallers

All stats current as of Sunday, June 30

James Paxton - New York Yankees

Season K%: 29%, Last 30 Days: 20%

Our second faller has had a disappointing season after getting traded to the Yankees. James Paxton has a mediocre 4.34 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 64 1/3 IP (he missed most of May with a knee injury). The strikeout rate is there but the command has not been, and Paxton's strikeout rate has fallen to an unimpressive 20% over the last 30 days. Should fantasy owners give up hope on getting the output they expected from him?

There is one main factor in Paxton’s game that could explain his drop in strikeout rate and overall performance. The big thing has been Paxton's lack of command. In his past six starts, he has three in which he got seven strikeouts per game with a combined six walks and three earned runs. He also has three in which he had eight total strikeouts with nine walks and 15 earned runs. It is not surprising that Paxton has failed to post strikeouts when his command has been off and he has been inconsistent all season long.

Further, the Big Maple's batted-ball profile reflects a lack of command. He has gotten hit hard (40.5% hard-hit rate, 88.9-MPH average exit velocity, 17.7-degree launch angle), which does not bode well in the small confines of Yankee Stadium. His .344 BABIP is higher than his .304 career mark, but his 4.06 SIERA support this.

Overall, Paxton has underperformed this season and his underlying numbers support that. His strikeout numbers have been good, but that stat alone is not worth what has come with his lack of control. At this point, fantasy owners can only hope that Paxton can regain his control.

Stephen Strasburg - Washington Nationals

Season K%: 28.1%, Last 30 Days: 20.2%

Our second K rate faller has been a strong fantasy contributor once again but has faltered of late across the board. Stephen Strasburg has gotten roughed up over the past 30 days, posting a 5.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 20.2% K rate. Should fantasy owners be worried or is this a buy-low opportunity?

To get to the point, fantasy owners should not be worried about Strasburg. His velocity and spin rates on his fastball and curveball have been the same in June as they have on the season, his command has been there as evidenced by his WHIP, and his 25.7% hard-hit rate has been solid. Simply put, Strasburg has gotten unlucky. His batting average on his fastball has been a whopping .400 in June compared to .250 on the season, his .301 BABIP is higher than his .282 season mark, and his 3.87 SIERA is much better than his ERA over that time.

Strasburg is a higher-end fantasy starter and continues to be, despite his rough patch. Nothing under the hood suggests any causes for concern and he should eventually regress positively. Now may be a good time to make a buy-low offer in the event that fantasy owners are worried about him.

K-Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top strikeout rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium K-Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. This tool will soon be active once we have a large enough sample size in the season to be considered reliable.

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

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