Jack Doyle 2019 Outlook: Even Without Luck, Doyle Could Still Be Steal
6 years ago2018 was mostly a lost year for Jack Doyle, as injuries limited him to only five full games. He first missed five games with a hip injury and then had his season ended by a kidney laceration in Week 12. During those absences, it was newly-signed Eric Ebron who ascended to the fantasy elite, hauling in 13 TD along with 750 yards. That production has given Ebron an overall ADP of 76, heading into the 2019 season as the #7 TE, while Doyle has basically been forgotten, being drafted as the 21st TE at #170 overall. If Doyle is healthy - and he's on track for training camp after having offseason hip surgery - then why wouldn't we assume that he will still get the bulk of the TE targets, regardless of Ebron's 2018 results? In the 5.5 games they played together in 2018, Doyle was targeted 33 times, to Ebron's 15, and while Ebron may have had great counting stats last year, it took him 110 targets to grab 66 catches, catching at only a 60% rate. Doyle, on the other hand, has had three years in a row of catch-rates above 75% and averaged 1.3 red-zone targets/game last year, which is virtually the same as Ebron's year-end average. All of these things could have added up to Doyle being steal at a throwaway 170 ADP, but did all of that go out the window with the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck on August 23? Instead of coming back to the established and successful connection that he had formed with Luck, Doyle is now in a shell-shocked offense being suddenly led by Jacoby Brissett. While not having Luck is certainly a downgrade, Doyle still has a high floor even though his ceiling won't be as high as other tight-ends, given the presence of Ebron. And while Brissett isn't Luck, that may actually work in Doyle's favor some, as Brissett may opt for more safety in these turbulent times, choosing shorter passes to the sure hands of Doyle instead of riskier throws down the field.