X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Joey Lucchesi

Going into this season as with last, there is little separation between starting pitchers in the middle tiers. Some fantasy analysts have taken to referring to this bunching of talent outside of the elite as "The Glob." One's mileage may vary from the next in terms of which arms are included in this group, but there's broad consensus that it exists.

What's a fantasy owner to do? In the current environment, with starters' workloads decreasing, it's arguably more difficult than ever to decide which hurlers you should draft to fill out your rotation behind whichever and however many horses you've stocked at the top. At a certain point, a thorough analysis may seem to yield diminishing returns as opposed to, say, flipping a coin. But if you did that, I'd be out of a job. So let's see what we can suss out with a close reading of the tea leaves.

Today, we're debating the merits of a pair of 25-year-old southpaws who produced remarkably similar stat lines in 2018: Eduardo Rodriguez of the defending world champion Boston Red Sox, and Joey Lucchesi of the upstart San Diego Padres. Despite their roughly analogous production a year ago, Rodriguez is currently being drafted nearly 50 picks earlier, per NFBC ADP data. Which one should you roster?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Eduardo Rodriguez - 158 ADP

It may come as something of a surprise given his age, but 2019 will already be Rodriguez's fifth MLB season. He has averaged 22 starts and 124 innings in his first four years with Boston, and has yet to crack 140 innings in a single campaign. By most measures, 2018 was the apex of his brief career; he won 13 games with a 3.82 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 18.3 K-BB%. All of those numbers were career bests.

As one might surmise from his lower than expected innings totals thus far, injuries have been a frequent problem for the Venezuela native. They've primarily been to his bottom half (recurrent knee problems, and an ankle issue last year), rather than his arm. That's cold comfort, however, when frequent trips to the disabled list are the rule rather than the exception. Rodriguez has also had trouble pitching deep into games. For his career, he has lasted more than six innings just 18 times in 88 starts.

The concerns around health and volume have kept E-Rod's ADP in the SP45 range, but some helium is creeping in with his spring training workouts drawing rave reviews from luminaries like Pedro Martinez. Just another "best shape of his life" story? Quite possibly. But it's certainly fun to imagine what a fully healthy Rodriguez could do with 30 starts after four years of steady improvement despite his injuries.

 

Joey Lucchesi (207 ADP)

Despite being two months younger than Rodriguez, 2018 was Lucchesi's first season in the major leagues. While his surface stats were slightly worse than E-Rod's (eight wins, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), most of his peripherals were right in line with his fellow lefty. Both pitched 130 innings with virtually identical metrics in strikeouts and walks. The biggest difference in their results came on the third true outcome - Lucchesi allowed seven more home runs than Rodriguez did.

That's not nothing! Even though they've become more common than at most other points in the game's history, home runs are still the worst possible outcome for a pitcher. We can't pretend those seven extra long balls didn't count. Whether they indicate a long-term issue for Lucchesi, however, is up for debate.

He rose quickly through the minors, needing fewer than 200 innings across two seasons to reach the big club. But in those minor league innings, Lucchesi didn't demonstrate any particular proneness to homers. He suppressed them, in fact, aided by his groundball-heavy batted-ball profile. This is also an accurate representation of his college career. Take that into account, and along with a 20.4 HR/FB% that easily led the majors (min. 130 innings), one can argue with some ease that Lucchesi endured at least some measure of misfortune.

On the other hand, Lucchesi's pronounced second-half fade is cause for concern. Did the league start to figure him out? Did he hit the rookie wall? If the former, can he adjust effectively? The Padres, with Manny Machado in the fold, look pretty frisky on the hitting side of things. The rotation is a bit more uncertain, but they'll be counting on Lucchesi taking a step forward.

 

The Decision

This one is tricky. I think in terms of absolute value, Rodriguez is the better bet. He's trended steadily upward since breaking into the majors, he's got a great team behind him, and his ceiling is higher than that of Lucchesi. The health concerns are significant. It's impossible to reach your ceiling if you can't play, after all.

Lucchesi missed time last year with a hip strain, but doesn't have anywhere near the spotty health history of E-Rod. If you believe his late-season struggles were due more to fatigue than the league adjusting to his deceptive delivery, that 50-pick gap looks like a huge point in Lucchesi's favor.

On draft day, I'll be more interested in Rodriguez, even at a higher price.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jeff Petry16 mins ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Khris Middleton11 hours ago

Available For Wednesday's Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo11 hours ago

Cleared For Wednesday
Damian Lillard11 hours ago

Upgraded To Available On Wednesday
Nikola Jokic12 hours ago

Unavailable On Wednesday
Miles McBride13 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Karl-Anthony Towns13 hours ago

To Play On Wednesday
Andre Drummond13 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Alexandre Sarr13 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Bub Carrington13 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Kyle Kuzma13 hours ago

Will Play On Wednesday
Jalen Suggs13 hours ago

Out For Thursday Versus Minnesota
Zion Williamson14 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Portland
Trent Miner14 hours ago

Set For First Career Start On Wednesday
Aaron Gordon14 hours ago

Ruled Out Wednesday
Beck Malenstyn14 hours ago

To Remain Out On Thursday
Jiri Kulich14 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Thatcher Demko14 hours ago

Unavailable Wednesday
Nikola Jokic14 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday Versus Clippers
Elias Pettersson14 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Against Capitals
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Out Wednesday
Paolo Banchero15 hours ago

Expected To Return On Friday Versus Bucks
Aaron Ekblad15 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Kawhi Leonard15 hours ago

Out Versus Denver
Davis Thompson15 hours ago

Starts 2025 Season Well
PGA15 hours ago

J.T. Poston Disappoints At The Sentry
Chris Kirk15 hours ago

Sputters At The Sentry
Billy Horschel15 hours ago

Looks Forward To Sony Open
Brian Harman16 hours ago

Gets 2025 Started With A Rough Start
PGA16 hours ago

Cameron Davis Finishes Strong At The Sentry
Keegan Bradley16 hours ago

Starts 2025 Season Well
NFL16 hours ago

Bill Belichick Has No Plans To Return To The NFL
Deebo Samuel Sr.16 hours ago

49ers Plan To Bring Deebo Samuel Sr. Back Next Year
Zay Flowers18 hours ago

Absent From Wednesday's Practice
Braxton Garrett18 hours ago

To Miss 2025 Season Following Elbow Surgery
Taylor Pendrith20 hours ago

Is A Dark-Horse Pick For Sony Open
Jalen Hurts20 hours ago

Expected To Practice On Wednesday
Eric Cole20 hours ago

Looking For Bounce-Back Performance At Sony Open
Zay Flowers20 hours ago

A Long Shot To Play On Wild-Card Weekend
Sahith Theegala20 hours ago

A Big Name To Stay Away From At Sony Open
Nick Dunlap21 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Sony Open
Tom Kim21 hours ago

Making Season Debut At Sony Open
Deni Avdija22 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Wednesday's Contest
Jerami Grant23 hours ago

Remains Unavailable Wednesday
Ben Simmons23 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
D'Angelo Russell23 hours ago

To Miss Second Straight Game
Karl-Anthony Towns23 hours ago

Questionable To Face Raptors
Hideki Matsuyama23 hours ago

Looks To Make History At Waialae
Sean Monahan1 day ago

Exits Tuesday's Game Early
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Exits On Tuesday With Upper-Body Injury
Brock Faber1 day ago

Sustains Injury On Tuesday
Steven Stamkos1 day ago

Exits Early On Tuesday
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Sidelined With Upper-Body Injury
Josh Morrissey1 day ago

Day-To-Day With Lower Body Injury
Tanner Scott2 days ago

Mets Meet With Tanner Scott
Justin Verlander2 days ago

Signs One-Year Contract With San Francisco
NFL2 days ago

Ashton Jeanty Declares For 2025 NFL Draft
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Activated From Injured Reserve
Colin Miller2 days ago

To Miss At Least Two Weeks
Justin Faulk2 days ago

Rejoins Blues Lineup Against Wild
Igor Shesterkin2 days ago

Remains Out On Tuesday
Chris Kreider2 days ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jacob Middleton2 days ago

Available Tuesday
Troy Terry2 days ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Action
Tua Tagovailoa2 days ago

Dolphins Have "No Concern At All" About Tua Tagovailoa's Long-Term Health
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Raiders Fire Head Coach Antonio Pierce
David Montgomery2 days ago

Expected To Return For Divisional Round
Tyreek Hill2 days ago

Dolphins Say Tyreek Hill Did Not Request A Trade
Brandon Woodruff2 days ago

Hopes To Be Ready By Opening Day
Zay Flowers2 days ago

Not At Tuesday's Practice
Luke Clanton2 days ago

A Player To Watch At Sony Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of Sony Open
Russell Henley2 days ago

A Course Horse At Sony Open
Stephan Jaeger2 days ago

A Risky Option At Sony Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Makes 2025 Debut At Sony Open
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Hawaii
Sepp Straka2 days ago

A Safe Option At Sony Open
Michael Thorbjornsen2 days ago

A Dark Horse At Sony Open
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Retaining Brian Callahan As Head Coach
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Fire GM Ran Carthon
Brent Rooker2 days ago

Signs Five-Year Extension
Nolan Arenado2 days ago

Red Sox Emerge As Strong Candidate To Land Nolan Arenado
Christian Watson2 days ago

Packers Confirm Torn ACL For Christian Watson
Ezekiel Elliott2 days ago

Signing With Chargers
Michael Lorenzen3 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Kansas City
Gavin Lux3 days ago

Traded To Cincinnati
Kyler Murray3 days ago

"100 Percent" Chance That Kyler Murray Will Start For Cardinals In 2025
Brock Purdy3 days ago

Wants Contract Done Sooner Than Later
Christian McCaffrey3 days ago

"Definitely Close" To Being Fully Recovered
Jayden Daniels3 days ago

Commanders "Not Concerned" With Jayden Daniels' Leg Soreness
Amari Cooper3 days ago

Bills Hopeful Amari Cooper Will Be Available In Wild-Card Round
Chicago Bears3 days ago

Bears Seek Permission To Interview Mike McCarthy For Head-Coaching Job
Luis Arraez3 days ago

Yankees Talking With Padres About Luis Arraez
Clayton Kershaw5 days ago

Intends To Pitch In 2025, Expected To Return To Los Angeles
Charlie Morton6 days ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Baltimore

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP