X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Justin Turner and Max Muncy

We're heading to the sunny destination of Los Angeles. The Dodgers are coming off back-to-back World Series defeats and are not short of big names in their ranks. However, the success of their hitters is often overshadowed by their pitching. Last year the Dodgers went all-in and had a massive excess of hitting talent across the board. Due to contracts expiring, some of that has eased but there are still some interesting situations, and with that, some interesting discussions to be had about the value of some players for fantasy.

A near constant fantasy presence from Los Angeles has been Justin Turner, who went from zero to hero after arriving in Los Angeles around five years ago. Turner is now one of the most widely recognized names at the third base position for fantasy owners, but injuries have been a hindrance to him over the last couple of years. On the other side of the diamond, we have a player who before last year was in exactly the same situation as Turner was before coming to Los Angeles. Max Muncy had struggled to make a mark in Oakland early in his career but became a household name for Los Angeles Dodgers fans in 2018. Can he now demonstrate the consistency for fantasy owners that we have seen from Turner since his breakout and show he deserves to be taken among the top-12 at the 1B and 3B positions? Can Turner overcome injuries and outperform his current ADP?

Let's take a closer look at these two teammates.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Justin Turner (3B, LAD) ADP: 107.51

Since Turner's breakout years in 2014 and 2015 with the Dodgers, he has been a fascinating fantasy option at the third base position. It is not often that a player who breaks out at age 29 is able to sustain that level of success. However, generally, Turner has been consistent when he has been on the field.

Injuries have been the problem for Turner in the last two years. After playing 151 games in 2016, he played just 130 in 2017 and then 110 in 2018. However, despite those injuries, Turner has still been able to put up fantasy relevant numbers when on the field. In those last two years, his ISO has remained consistently over the .200 mark and his batting average has been over .300 in both years.

Unfortunately, we do not have Statcast data from Turner's time in New York, so we cannot look at what changed with the Dodgers. However, what we can look at is the jump in power we saw from 2015 to 2016. In 439 plate appearances in 2015, Turner hit .036 home runs per PA (HR/PA). However, in 2016, that jumped to .043 HR/PA.

Launch angle was a major part of the change. In 2015, his launch angle was 13.7 but in 2016 that increased to 16.8. When you then add on a slight increase in exit velocity, that is always going to lead to a home run boom. However, the last two years the exit velocity has decreased slightly, but the launch angle has actually increased. Turner is not suddenly going to become a 30-homer hitter, but last year he was on pace to reach the 20-homer mark if he had 600 PA.

An interesting statistic to watch out for this year is Turner's hard hit rate. According to Fangraphs, he had a career-high 45% hard hit rate in 2018. If he can combine that with his launch angle, then we could be set to see Turner reach that 25-homer mark once again. The caveat here is that according to Statcast data his hard hit rate was the lowest of his last four years at 36.7%. The difference for me is between predicting him to hit 20 or 25 home runs if he has 600 PA, so the difference is small but not insignificant.

Another promising thing for Turner has been that he has been among the top eight percent of the league in strikeout rate the past two years. That has contributed to the boom we have seen from his BA the past two years. When you have a hitter who has been consistently among the leagues best in xBA and xwOBA, and then you combine that with the ability to hit 20 home runs, it is a recipe for a nice fantasy return. If you then add in hitting third in the Dodgers batting order, you come away with a hitter that has the potential to give you good numbers in three categories (R, RBI, HR) and elite numbers in another (BA).

Verdict: ADP Champ

 

Max Muncy (1B/3B, LAD) ADP: 108.58

I am now going to look at a player who is hoping to repeat the sustained success we saw from Turner following his power breakout. Muncy's breakout was even more startling than Turner's. In his first two years with the Athletics, Muncy had a combined five home runs in 245 PA, with batting averages around just .200. In 2018 with the Dodgers, Muncy had an incredible season, with 35 home runs and a .263 batting average. The question is whether 2018 will be a one-year blip or the start of a great career? Muncy has been playing professional baseball since 2012 and is now 28. It's the prime of his career power-wise, so there is a real chance he can repeat those numbers. However, any time you see a major jump like the one Muncy had you need to treat it with some skepticism.

Muncy ranked in the top one percent of the league in barrel % and in the 90th percentile for hard hit rate. In his previous two stints in the majors, he had a barrel % of 4.2% and 3.4% respectively. He also had a hard hit rate of just 29.2% and 27.0% in those two seasons. To suddenly jump 14% or more in barrel % and over 15% in hard hit rate is an incredible increase. However, the sustainability of such a jump is questionable.

There is no denying Muncy has an incredible ceiling. 30-35 home runs with a potential of 40 in full-time PA is an exciting prospect. However, we have already seen if things do not go perfectly, he has the batting average floor of Joey Gallo. Additionally, right now, Roster Resource has Muncy in a platoon with David Freese, meaning that we may only see him in the 400 PA region. He hit 35 home runs in 481 PA last year but that rate is unlikely to be sustained. In fact, his HR/FB rate was the fourth-highest among hitters who had at least 300 PA, only falling behind Christian Yelich, Shohei Ohtani and J.D. Martinez. He is right there alongside the names of Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo.

The issue with Muncy is that all of his numbers scream regression. He has gone from relatively nowhere to among the best in the league at those categories. Given that he has only had three stints in the majors, to this point, it is hard to really judge which way he might go. If he can remain the power threat he was in 2018, and retain the average then this ADP could look like a steal. However, the biggest likelihood is we see regression in a lot of places. Therefore, if we see both a power regression and BA regression, Muncy could quickly become a black hole on your roster. In that situation, this ADP will look like a massive overpay and become a gamble you are kicking yourself for making.

Verdict: ADP Chump

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Noah Clowney23 mins ago

Upgraded To Available On Saturday
Joel Embiid29 mins ago

Active For Saturday Night Matchup Against Nets
Brandon Miller37 mins ago

Questionable Heading Into Sunday Against Cavaliers
LaMelo Ball41 mins ago

Questionable For Sunday's Game Against Cleveland
Trendon Watford47 mins ago

Resumes On Court Workouts, Will Be Re-Evaluated In One Week
Kelly Oubre Jr.54 mins ago

Officially Ruled Out For Saturday's Game Against Nets
Paolo Banchero60 mins ago

Still Ruled Out For Sunday's Game
Gary Harris1 hour ago

Ruled Out For Sunday's Game Against Utah
Jalen Suggs1 hour ago

Ruled Out For Sunday's Game Against Utah
Tyus Jones1 hour ago

Downgraded To Questionable For Saturday Matchup Against Pacers
Cam Thomas2 hours ago

Sustains New Hamstring Strain, Will Be Out At Least Two Weeks
Cameron Johnson2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday, Will Miss Next Three Games
Andrew Wiggins2 hours ago

Probable For Saturday Night Matchup Against Grizzlies
Miles McBride2 hours ago

Questionable Again On Saturday Night
Dallas Goedert2 hours ago

Eagles Activate Dallas Goedert From Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler2 hours ago

Activated From IR Ahead Of Week 18
Simone Fontecchio2 hours ago

Questionable Headed Into Saturday Night
Chris Olave2 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 18
Green Bay Packers3 hours ago

Jaire Alexander Placed On Injured Reserve
Stephen Curry3 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Memphis
Jameis Winston3 hours ago

Inactive For Week 18, Serving As Emergency Quarterback
Jalen Brunson3 hours ago

Probable For Saturday Evening
Nelson Agholor3 hours ago

Inactive For Week 18
Cade Cunningham3 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up Versus Minnesota
Tee Higgins3 hours ago

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins Hope To Play Together For "Years To Come"
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Questionable For Saturday Night
Kawhi Leonard4 hours ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Jimmy Butler4 hours ago

Miami Wants To Move Jimmy Butler "As Soon As Possible"
Amari Cooper4 hours ago

Downgraded To Out For Week 18
Thatcher Demko5 hours ago

Joining Team For Five-Game Road Trip
Pyotr Kochetkov5 hours ago

Starts Against Wild On Saturday
Joseph Woll5 hours ago

In Maple Leafs Net On Saturday
Scott Wedgewood6 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Jack Drury6 hours ago

Back For Hurricanes Saturday
Auston Matthews6 hours ago

Returns To Action On Saturday
Jordan Binnington9 hours ago

Shuts Out Senators
Brandon Saad9 hours ago

Ends Goal Drought With A Hat Trick
Mike Matheson9 hours ago

Records Two Assists Friday
Nick Foligno9 hours ago

Pots Two Goals In Friday's Win
Juuse Saros9 hours ago

Logs Fourth Shutout Of The Season
Leon Draisaitl10 hours ago

Nets Game-Winner On Friday
Chase Brown22 hours ago

Needs To Improve To Have A Shot At Playing On Saturday
Tee Higgins22 hours ago

Expected To Play Against Steelers
Charlie Morton23 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Baltimore
Chris Olave24 hours ago

Saints List Chris Olave As Questionable For Week 18
Jaylen Waddle24 hours ago

Dolphins Optimistic About Jaylen Waddle Despite Questionable Tag
Tyreek Hill24 hours ago

Questionable To Face The Jets
Jared Spurgeon1 day ago

To Miss 2-3 Weeks
A.J. Brown1 day ago

DeVonta Smith Doubtful For Week 18
Oskar Sundqvist1 day ago

Unavailable Friday
Justin Faulk1 day ago

Iffy For Friday's Action
Colton Dach1 day ago

Set For NHL Debut On Friday
Tua Tagovailoa1 day ago

Doubtful For Week 18
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Officially Ruled Out
Connor Murphy1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Deebo Samuel Sr.1 day ago

Won't Play Against Cardinals
David Savard1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Brock Purdy1 day ago

Officially Ruled Out In Week 18
George Kittle1 day ago

Questionable For Week 18
David Montgomery1 day ago

Out, Craig Reynolds Questionable For Week 18
Austin Ekeler1 day ago

Questionable For Week 18
Jack Eichel1 day ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Thursday
Alex DeBrincat1 day ago

Tallies Three Points On Thursday
Jonathan Quick1 day ago

Leads The Way On Thursday
Pete Alonso2 days ago

Angels "Looking At" Pete Alonso
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Hoping To Find Success Again At Majors In 2025
Chris Kirk3 days ago

Starts 2025 Defending The Sentry Title
Max Homa3 days ago

Hopes To Rebound After Disappointing 2024 Season
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Looks To Build On Impressive Rookie Season
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Heads To The Sentry After Excellent 2024 Season
PGA3 days ago

Sungjae Im Hoping To Start 2025 Season Strongly At The Sentry
Russell Henley3 days ago

Closes Out 2024 Season Strong
Jason Day3 days ago

Looks Ahead To 2025 Season At The Sentry
Akshay Bhatia3 days ago

To Repeat Last Year’s Sentry Performance?
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Returns To The Sentry
Jesús Luzardo3 days ago

Jesus Luzardo Feeling 100 Percent
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

Making First Career Start At Kapalua
Corey Conners3 days ago

Making Third Consecutive Start At Kapalua
Viktor Hovland3 days ago

A Gametime Decision For Year's First Event
Tony Finau3 days ago

Making Sixth Start At Kapalua After Rumor-Filled Offseason
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looks To Get Off To Fast Start In 2025 At Kapalua
Patrick Cantlay4 days ago

Looks For Hot Start In 2025
Sam Burns4 days ago

In Top Form Ahead of Kapalua
Cameron Young4 days ago

Needs To Avoid Bad Rounds In Hawaii
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Looking For Big 2025 Start In Hawaii
Hideki Matsuyama4 days ago

Always A Threat In Hawaii
Billy Horschel4 days ago

Seeks To Build Off Great 2024 Campaign
Jack Flaherty5 days ago

Orioles Interested In Reunion With Jack Flaherty
Alex Bregman5 days ago

Tigers "All-In" On Alex Bregman
Trevor Williams5 days ago

Returning To Washington On Two-Year Deal
Josh Bell6 days ago

Returning To Washington
Pete Alonso6 days ago

Giants Have Pete Alonso "On Their Radar"

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Michael Penix Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for Sam Darnold, Bryce Young, Michael Penix Jr., Joshua Dobbs, Drew Lock, Drake Maye

The Week 18 slate is here, meaning several teams who are eliminated from postseason action or have already locked up a playoff spot are set to rest some key starters. We're here to help you sort through it all with our Week 18 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024. If you're still chasing a […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football Playoffs: Overall Updates Include Isaac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens

If your league championship is in Week 18, you surely already know it's a difficult week to navigate. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Isaac Guerendo, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Jerry Jeudy, and George Pickens stand for the must-win Week 18 […]


Jalen McMillan - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jalen McMillan, Adam Thielen, Rico Dowdle, Ray Davis, J.K. Dobbins, Zay Flowers

The closing week of the 2024 NFL regular season has arrived, and we're here to help your lineup or DFS calls with our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Comparing two flex options at different positions can be a tough task, so let's see where key FLEX options like Jalen […]


Ray Davis - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 18 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Rico Dowdle, Zach Charbonnet, Ray Davis, Blake Corum, Isaac Guerendo, more

Week 18 is here, and many backup running backs will be in featured roles this weekend as several teams are resting starters. That said, let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 18 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players such as Rico Dowdle, Zach Charbonnet, […]


Jameson Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 18 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Tyreek Hill, Jalen McMillan, Adam Thielen, Jameson Williams, Jauan Jennings

Week 18 is here, and several teams will either not play starters or pull them early in the game. That said start-or-sit decisions are tough when comparing two flex-level wide receiver options, so we're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's see where key […]


Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans - Tampa Bay Bucs, Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 18 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 18! This Week 18 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em will help you make the right lineup decisions in the final week of the regular season.  Whether you play in a Week 18 fantasy football championship or are looking for some DFS […]


Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Inactives Week 18 (Updated): Which Teams Are Resting Starters? Who's Sitting or Playing in Week 18

If your fantasy football league extends to Week 18, you either forgot to change that setting, or you love living on the edge. The final week of the NFL regular season is always tricky to navigate, as several teams either do not play their key starters or pull them early. Many teams have already clinched […]


Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, WR, Waiver Wire, NFL DFS, Rookies

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 18 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football And DFS Include Blake Corum, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ricky Pearsall

For the final week of the 2024 season, those who are still participating in Week fantasy football Super Bowls must do two things. First, vote in a new league commissioner for next season. Secondly, consult our rundown of our best streamers and lineup pluggers to win a league championship. Using RotoBaller’s Week 18 Lineup Rankings […]


Joe Burrow - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Steelers vs. Bengals Showdown (Week 18)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is the final week of the regular season, and we have a couple more showdowns left, including a big game for the AFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) host the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8). The Bengals are still alive for a playoff spot but need some help, along with a win. The […]


Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

NFL DFS Lineup Picks For FanDuel, DraftKings - Browns vs. Ravens Showdown (Week 18)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an AFC North Showdown on the docket as Bailey Zappe and the Cleveland Browns (3-13) head to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (11-5). While Cleveland doesn't have anything to play for, they can still play spoiler for their division rival as Lamar and the Ravens are […]


Chig Okonkwo - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Sam LaPorta, Jonnu Smith, Zach Ertz, Chig Okonkwo, Mike Gesicki, Tucker Kraft

Tight ends got out to a slow start in 2024, but several players at the position have become productive fantasy and DFS assets. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 18 fantasy football tight end rankings for 2024 to help you make tough start-or-sit decisions. If your league extends to Week 18, it's time […]


Zach Charbonnet - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Running Back Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Fantasy Football Playoffs - Week 18

While most fantasy football leagues crowned a champion last week, there are still a handful of leagues deciding their title this week. That means we’ve got one last weekend of work left before we can finally put up our feet and relax. Week 18 can be tricky for fantasy managers as many teams have already […]


Bryce Young - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 18 Quarterback Rankings for Fantasy Football - QB Updates Include Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, Justin Herbert, more

At last, Week 18 has arrived. Whether your league extends to Week 18 or you are looking for an extra resource for DFS lineups, we're here to help with our updated Week 18 fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024. Let's see where quarterbacks such as Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Michael Penix Jr., Bryce Young, Justin […]