RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown - Week 14 Preview

Last week was all about those running backs who have done the most to boost their average draft position heading into 2019. What about those who have done the most to hurt themselves? Even though these running backs haven’t had a great 2018, we should consider buying low on them prior to next season for you dynasty owners or guys you should take notes on heading into next year’s redraft season.

This article is all about watching how a backfield is being used for every team. Snap counts are very useful, but I want to know what a player is doing when he has the ball in his hands. Anytime a running back gets a touch, what is being done with that touch?

Watching a trend with touches for running backs will not only let us know their usage for any given week or period, but how effective they are with the ball. High volume plus high effectiveness is always the best outcome. High volume with low effectiveness can be great and low volume with high effectiveness can be streaky at times. Let’s dive into our Week 14 preview.

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RB Touches and Efficiency Breakdown

Dalvin Cook, MIN

One of my biggest misses this season was Dalvin Cook, and if it wasn’t for his injuries, it may not have been a miss. Cook has only appeared in six games this season after only playing in four games last season. It’s been a roller coaster though, but the talent and upside continue to show. Cook is currently averaging five yards per touch which are slightly below the 5.2 yards per touch he averaged last season. Cook’s ability to help in the passing game makes him a true dual treat running back and the Vikings know it. Cook is averaging more targets per game in 2018 as well and even though his yards per reception are slightly down, having Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs stretching the field means more opportunities for Cook to break big plays in 2019.

The only issue is Cook’s health which you should be cautious of, but it will bring a nice discount next season. The depth at running back is going to be something that we haven’t seen in recent years, and it could push wide receivers into the second round, burying Cook even deeper. Don’t give up on him yet even if everyone else is.

Tevin Coleman, ATL

Tevin Coleman truthers have been waiting for him to get his chance for two years now but being stuck behind Devonta Freeman hasn’t offered many opportunities for Coleman to truly showcase all his skills on a full-time basis. Well, the opportunity finally presented itself and Coleman couldn’t have laid a bigger egg.

Coleman is averaging five yards per touch this season, but even though his overall numbers look worse than years past, it’s his work in the passing game that has limited him this season. Coleman is averaging four yards per carry which is the same as last season and only half a yard less than two years ago. Coleman’s yards per reception have dropped though, going from 13.6 in 2016, to 11.1 in 2017 all the way down to nine yards per reception this season. So, if it looks like a decline in production, why are we buying low?

Even after a down a season, Coleman will be sought after on the free agent market, and a potential reunion with his old offensive coordinator could be in the books. The opportunity to buy Coleman will need to come before he signs, so dynasty owners need to buy early. In redraft leagues, we could see another Jerrick McKinnon situation in drafts. Owners can buy with more confidence if Coleman finishes 2018 off right and that starts this week against the Green Bay Packers, a matchup he could take advantage off.

Kenyan Drake, MIA

I was not a fan of Kenyan Drake heading into the 2018 season mainly because of Frank Gore and the insane value placed on him. Drake isn’t an RB1, even in PPR leagues but he was being drafted like one, and that kind of capitol seemed bound to backfire. Heading into 2019, Gore won’t likely be back in Miami, and if the Dolphins hand the backfield over to Drake and Kalen Ballage, Drake has shown this year he can still offer tremendous value if used efficiently.

Drake is averaging 5.5 yards per touch, but his yards per carry are in line with previous years and his yards per reception are slightly higher. The only difference between this year and 2017 is the Drake isn’t leading you to a fantasy championship out of nowhere. The only thing changing for Drake this off-season will possibly be a coaching staff, and if that happens, hopefully, it’s one that knows how to use this backfield correctly. Drake will be rounds cheaper heading into drafts next year coming off a season that was close in production, except it all didn’t come in a few weeks.

Rashaad Penny, SEA

This one may be a little tougher to sell you on, but I’m not moving on from Rashaad Penny yet, because he is better than Chris Carson and I am willing to die on that hill. Let’s give Penny another off-season to try and take this job away. Even though Carson has out-touched Penny 170 to 82 in 2018, Penny has been more efficient. Penny is averaging 5.4 yards per touch compared to 4.9 yards per touch from Carson.

I know a lot of fantasy owners hate hearing this as well, but Penny holds the draft capitol over Carson. At some point, they will need to let Penny loose and see what they have in their first-round pick from last season. Carson seems to find himself on the injury report each week and has missed a couple of games this year as well. Penny could be had extremely cheap in dynasty leagues, and if you are preparing for the rest of this season, you must be holding Penny if you are a Carson owner. With all the injuries at running back right now, owning your handcuffs is essential in the playoffs.