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Congrats to our friends in Beantown for winning the World Series. Fantasy baseball has reached the early hours of the offseason which means it’s recap time. While we indulge in football, basketball, and hockey on the big screen, why not get a head start on some early 2019 baseball research?
During the season, we explored the benefits of Statcast in predicting risers and fallers. We dug into a myriad of advanced metrics including exit velocity, barrel data and expected hitting outcomes. On the pitching side, one effective measurement was xwOBA and comparing xwOBA and wOBA. wOBA appraises a player’s performance based on actual results while the latter evaluates expected outcome using Statcast data.
Let’s look at a handful of players that could experience a bump in performance heading into 2019 based on xwOBA. To keep things equitable, we’ll look at three infielders and three outfielders. For reference, out of 214 players with at least 450 plate appearances in 2018, the median xwOBA was .324.
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- Who should I start? Fantasy baseball player comparisons
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xwOBA Risers of 2018
Joey Votto (1B, Cincinnati Reds)
By all relevant standards, Joey Votto was a massive disappointment as a second-rounder in 2018. Votto posted four-year lows in homers, RBI and OPS. Excluding an injury-riddled 2014, last season was the first time since 2008 that Votto’s OPS was below .900. However, Votto was fifth in baseball with a .396 xwOBA, which was muted by an actual wOBA of .370. In short, he left some valuable fantasy stats on the table with the underwhelming return on investment. If recency bias reigns supreme this offseason, Votto could drop to the third or fourth round in fantasy drafts. Consider that a steal for one of the most consistent first basemen in fantasy history.
Max Muncy (1B/2B/3B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Keen fantasy owners struck gold with Max Muncy, who bopped 35 homers and 154 runs+RBI. He’ll deservedly enter 2019 in the top-100 discussion on fantasy draft boards. Muncy’s .391 xwOBA was seventh-best in baseball, which was mostly represented in his .407 wOBA. Basically, the results were no fluke. Muncy offers excellent plate discipline (0.60 BB/K) and his 47% Hard% partially appeases the concern that a 29% HR/FB is unsustainable. As a dead-pull, fly ball hitter, Muncy should give himself ample opportunities to flirt with 30 homers again in 2019. For fantasy owners looking to secure power and run-producing categories in the early-middle rounds, Muncy should fill that need capably.
Nicholas Castellanos (3B/OF, Detroit Tigers)
Nicholas Castellanos quietly piled up 23 homers, 177 R+RBI and .372 xwOBA in 2018, finishing as a top-15 third baseman. With exciting young studs at the hot corner like Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman, Castellanos was a forgotten man as a reliable fantasy set-and-forget option. The 26-year-old played in all but five games last season, exempting owners of day-to-day lineup headaches. Castellanos has now completed two straight seasons with 20-plus long balls and proven he is a solid run producer despite an unfavorable team setup. A .361 BABIP suggests his average may dip but he makes solid contact (48% Hard%). If he can cut down the strikeouts (15.8% SwStr%), a third straight productive season appears highly probable.
Aaron Judge (OF, New York Yankees)
In a perfect world, Aaron Judge’s injury in 2018 would cause him to slip a few rounds down draft boards, presenting a huge arbitrage opportunity. Unfortunately, information is symmetrical and everyone knows Judge is a stud. For any fantasy managers eyeing Judge as an early-round candidate, find solace in his eighth-best .389 xwOBA. Judge followed up a ridiculous 36% HR/FB in 2017 with a 29% clip in 2018. Judge improved on his Hard% to 48% yet his ISO dropped nearly 100 points to .249. Assuming full health entering 2019, Judge could easily test 40 homers and 100 RBI. He’s a safe second-round investment.
Tommy Pham (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
After being traded to the Rays last season, Tommy Pham slashed an absurd .343/.448/.622 with 57 R+RBI in 39 games. His .373 xwOBA was 18th-best in baseball. The primary concern with Pham entering 2018 was that his .368 BABIP in 2017 was unsustainable. Pham silenced the doubters by posting a .342 BABIP with comparable counting stats and a modest dip in average. In 2019, Pham could be an afterthought on cheat sheets due to his streaky tendencies with the Cardinals and the Rays relative obscurity. He’s also not super sexy, entering his age-31 season. But for standard, season-long managers, Pham is the ideal third outfielder, offering steady five-category potential. Now with a two-year track record, the skeptics are becoming fewer.
Marcell Ozuna (OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
Relative to expectations, Marcell Ozuna faceplanted in 2018, suffering material drops in output after his colossal 2017 season. Looking forward, Ozuna’s returns last season (.280, 23 dingers, 157 R+RBI) are more reasonable indicators. With expectations reset, Ozuna remains a top-100 candidate and could conceivably sink further down draft boards than merited. While his .353 xwOBA ranks 44th, the -.026 gap between that and his actual wOBA (.327) was 17th-widest in the majors. His fly ball profile (35% FB%) doesn’t support an uptick in homers, but a 45% Hard% should allow Ozuna to surpass the measly 16 doubles he recorded last year. Ozuna may be the typical overhyped player from the previous season becoming the undervalued guy the following year. Take advantage of that potential dynamic.
