WR Target and Snap Count Analysis from Week 8

Phil Clark examines the most important changes in target share, red zone targets, and snap count for wide receivers ahead of Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season to help fantasy football owners make informed lineup decisions.

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward accomplishing your unwavering goal of securing a league championship. As the season unfolds, it is crucial for you to utilize the tools that you have available, in order to maintain an extensive level of knowledge regarding the number of opportunities that are being provided to your wide receivers - both in terms of their snap counts and how often they are being targeted by their quarterbacks.

Each week, this article will examine these specific categories, along with any other noteworthy changes in usage that signal an increase or regression in opportunity. This will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference and NFL Savant were used to obtain all target and red zone target totals, while snap count information was assembled with information from Football Outsiders.

We now are in possession of data from eight weeks of game action that will provide the basis for comparison of snap counts and targets for each receiver. This will include the most likely candidates to experience a rise or decline in those numbers during the upcoming weeks. Here is a breakdown of the most compelling changes in usage and opportunity from Week 8.

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Overall Targets  

Adam Thielen sustained his league lead with 96 targets, although Jarvis Landry has now reduced the gap (94). Odell Beckham Jr. is the only other receiver who has eclipsed 90 targets (91), while Stefon Diggs (85), Julio Jones (81), and Antonio Brown (80), have all attained 80+. DeAndre Hopkins (78), Davante Adams (78), and A.J. Green (76) are the only other receivers that have accumulated at least 70, while 12 additional receivers now have season-long totals that currently reside at 60+.

But even though Thielen maintained his overall lead in this category, his streak of collecting double-digit targets on a weekly basis finally reached an abrupt conclusion. His seven targets in Week 8 represented a decrease of -3 in comparison to Week 7 and ended what had been an impressive collection of weekly totals during Minnesota's first seven contests (12, 13, 19, 12, 10, 13, 10). Still, his exceptional season continues, and he is joined by Landry and Beckham as the only receivers who have accumulated at least 10 targets in seven different games.

Landry and Beckham were also among the nine receivers who attained double-digit targets in Week 8, although it was Mike Evans' season-best 13 that represented the highest total for the week. Landry and 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald were next with 12, followed by Beckham, Diggs, and Willie Snead with 11. For Snead, it was the second time in three weeks that he has reached double-digits, and he has now been allotted at least seven targets in five consecutive games (7, 7, 10, 7, 11).

Tyler Boyd had 10 passes launched in his direction, which was his highest total since Week 4 (15). That also tied him with Marvin Jones, and Adam Humphries, who both established new season highs. Humphries has amassed 19 targets during Tampa Bay’s last two contests (9.5 targets per game), after averaging 4.6 per game in the Buccaneers’ first five matchups. 18 of those throws were launched by Jameis Winston, which should create some apprehension for Humphries owners now that Ryan Fitzpatrick is re-emerging under center.

Largest Increases And Decreases

Most of this week’s increases and decreases in targeting will focus on differentials between Weeks 7-8, with the exception of receivers who missed their Week 7 matchups due to injuries, or their byes. In those scenarios, we will compare the Week 6 results to what occurred in Week 8.

Jermaine Kearse and Kendrick Bourne unexpectedly joined Boyd, Jones, and Humphries in attaining 10 targets, which enabled the duo to obtain equally surprising status as the recipients of the week's largest increases. Kearse's unpredictable totals now include an erratic 4, 10, 2, 10 during the Jets’ past four contests, while Bourne had only accumulated 53 targets in 18 games with the 49ers before C.J. Beathard launched 10 passes in his direction last Sunday.

Boyd and Jones have now captured the same number of targets for two consecutive weeks, and the season-high 10 that they garnered in Week 8 was an increase of six from their Week 7 totals (+4). It was also the largest rise among the more prominent receivers in Week 8, while Snead, Fitzgerald and Antonio Callaway were all beneficiaries of +4 increases. Brandin Cooks was next (+3) while seven different receivers were allotted two more targets than they collected in Week 7 (Brown, Evans, Golden Tate, Sammy Watkins, Dede Westbrook, Taylor Gabriel, DeSean Jackson).

Adams is tied for seventh in targets for the season, despite already being absent from one week of game action due to his bye. He also averaged a whopping 14 targets per game from Weeks 4-6, which included his season-best 16 in Week 6. But his season-low seven targets in Week 8 represented a massive decline (-9), which was the largest among all receivers.

The second biggest drop occurred with Devin Funchess, who had averaged 8.4 targets per game from Weeks 2-7 while accumulating at least seven in every contest during that span. The sequence culminated with a season-best 11 in Week 7 (9, 7, 7, 8, 11) - but he experienced an enormous drop of -8 in Week 8, as Cam Newton only targeted him three times. While the 6’4” Funchess was registering his season low, rookie teammate D.J. Moore garnered a career-best six targets. This continued his recent ascension in usage, as Moore has averaged 5.3 targets per game since Week 6, after only averaging two per game from Weeks 1-5.

Red Zone Targets  

Juju Smith-Schuster has retained his league lead in red zone targets among wide receivers (17) and is second only to Alvin Kamara (18) among all players regardless of their positions. Adams and Landry are next with 15, while Michael Thomas, Hopkins, and Green have each attained 14. Thielen, and Giant teammates Beckham and Sterling Shepard have all received 13, while five other receivers have reached double-digits for the year - Kupp (11), T.Y. Hilton (11), Watkins (10), Jones (10), and Brown (10).

Evans collected four red zone targets in Week 8, which was the highest total among all wide receivers. He has also amassed six targets since Week 6, which has expanded his season total to eight. Hilton, Fitzgerald, and Westbrook were next with three targets in Week 8, while Landry, Hopkins, Thielen, Demaryius Thomas, and Stefon Diggs all collected two.

Largest Increases And Decreases

The four targets that were designated for Evans resulted in this week's largest increase, as he had only received one in Week 7. Otherwise, no receivers surpassed the +2 rise that was attained by Westbrook and Demaryius Thomas. The biggest decreases occurred with Beckham (-3), Shepard (-2), and Landry (-2), although that was a byproduct of their favorable totals in Week 7 (Beckham 4, Landry 4, Shepard 3).

Hopkins has accumulated 10 of his targets during Houston's last five contests while collecting double-digit red zone targets in four of those games. He has also amassed eight targets since Week 5, which is a total that has only been surpassed by Beckham (9).

As we continue in the AFC South, Hilton's ability to collect 11 red zone targets in six games is impressive, and it includes five during his two matchups since returning to the Colts' lineup in Week 7. Landry is the only receiver that has obtained more during that two-week span (6). Westbrook entered Week 7 without a red zone target throughout the entire season, but has now captured four during Jacksonville’s last two matchups.

Fitzgerald has matched Hilton’s total during the past two weeks (5) and has accumulated six of his eight targets since Week 6. Considering the exceptional season that Thielen is delivering to his owners, it is hardly surprising that his red zone target total has steadily increased as the weeks unfold. He has now received at least two red zone targets in five consecutive games, which has propelled him into that three-receiver grouping that has now obtained 13 for the year.

Snap Counts  

It has been customary to see Hopkins' name atop the list in snap count percentage on a weekly basis. However, even though his Week 8 snap count of 97% is clearly an appealing percentage, it was actually surpassed by four receivers. The most intriguing name among this week's leaders is Devante Parker, who had not registered a catch since Week 3.

But after performing on a grand total of 37 snaps all season, and just four since Week 3, he suddenly played on 100% of Miami's offensive snaps. He was joined by Fitzgerald (66/100%), followed by Brown (70/99%), Danny Amendola (96/98%), Hopkins (59/97%). Woods (76/97%), and Jones (57/97%), followed by six different receivers with 96%.

Hopkins does lead all receivers in snap counts through eight games (99.5%),  and is one of just 11 receivers who have performed on over 90% of their team's offensive snaps to this point of the year - Thielen (97%), Woods (96%), Beckham (96%), Brown (94.4%), Shepard (94%), Adams (93%), Jones (93%), Landry (93%), Nelson Agholor (92%), and Michael Thomas (91%).

Largest Increases And Decreases

There were two noticeable declines in usage that also provided a pair of rookie receivers with opportunities to register their highest snap counts of the season. Keelan Cole had performed on 56/84% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps entering Week 8, with a count that never fell below 75% in any particular contest. But he was only involved in 15/23% of the snaps during the Jaguars' matchup with Philadelphia.

His second-quarter fumble was the second in his last three games, during which he has also accumulated five drops. All of which contributed to the dramatic increase in playing time for D.J. Chark. The first-year receiver's count rose dramatically (48/75%) after he had only played on 32% of the team's previous snaps. Chark had never exceeded 44% in any particular game, but it would not be surprising for his opportunities to rise once the Jaguars return from their bye.

D.J. Moore received a similar boost, as Funchess registered a season-low 48/74% of Carolina's offensive snaps. Funchess had averaged 86% during the year and had played on 94.5% of the Panthers' snaps in Weeks 6-7. This made his regression even more noteworthy, as Moore played on a season-best 46/71% of the team's snaps. He had entered Week 8 averaging only 32%, his previous season best had been 49%, and he had also surpassed 45% just twice.

Five Things That I Noticed

1. The trade of Demaryius Thomas to Houston will certainly have ramifications for both the Texans and the Broncos. But beyond Thomas himself, no receivers will be impacted more than rookies Courtland Sutton and Keke Coutee. Sutton instantly becomes Denver’s WR2, while his 4.6 targets per game average and 69% snap count will both assuredly rise to more appealing levels. Meanwhile, Coutee’s apparent opportunity to serve as his team’s second option behind Hopkins has quickly dissipated. However, this does not mean that he cannot operate as a WR3 for owners - Coutee has the capability to remain productive as Deshaun Watson’s third option, once he has fully recovered from his hamstring issue. Bill O’Brien can script plays to keep Coutee involved as both a receiver and occasional rusher, and the combined presence of Hopkins and Thomas will keep opposing secondaries sufficiently distracted so that Coutee can present his owners with favorable (but inconsistent) point totals.

2. Philadelphia’s acquisition of Golden Tate will also have consequences for the receiving units of both the Eagles and the Lions. While it could signal an intensified commitment to the ground game by Detroit, Tate's departure will be beneficial to both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Jones capitalized on his 10 targets in Week 8 by establishing new season highs in receptions (7) and yardage (117) while also generating two touchdowns. He is currently 36th in targets among wide receivers, which includes a sequence from Weeks 3-7 in which he averaged five per game. His opportunities should now become more consistent, while he will continue to garner looks near the end zone. Meanwhile, Kenny Golladay owners should be ecstatic, as Tate's departure should help him reverse an unfavorable trend in which the 9.3 targets per game average that he averaged from Weeks 1-3 plummeted to just 1.5 in Weeks 7-8.

3. Even though we must await Philadelphia's return from the Week 8 bye to observe how they will deploy Golden Tate, his emergence with the Eagles will not negatively impact his value. Nor will it hinder Alshon Jeffery's, as both receivers should maintain an average of around nine targets per game. But it was already becoming difficult to justify keeping Nelson Agholor on rosters even without the addition of Tate, who is on pace for a fifth consecutive 90 catch season. The nominal value of Jordan Matthews and his 2.8 targets per game average has essentially been terminated, although the focus of Tate owners should be restricted to making sure that he is affixed to their starting lineups.

4. Doug Baldwin has now been targeted 19 times since his Week 4 return, although that total has been attained through erratic targeting (7, 1, 8, 3). This corresponds with his wildly inconsistent production - as he has interspersed a 91-yard performance in Week 6, with an average of 23 YPG in the other three contests. Tyler Lockett's 34 targets currently lead the Seahawks, even though his 6.3 targets per game average from Weeks 2-4 has dropped to just 3.6 since Week 5, with a decline during each of the Seahawks last four contests (6, 5, 4, 2). Meanwhile, David Moore's four touchdowns since Week 5 have been achieved despite the fact that he has only been targeted 11 times during the three games in which he has scored. The recent accumulation of touchdowns will entice some box-score-dependent owners toward adding him to their rosters. But he would need a significant increase in usage and opportunities (27% snap count) for him to be anything beyond a high-risk investment for anyone who envisions starting him.

5. Even though Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison returned from their protracted hamstring injuries, Marquez Valdes-Scantling performed on more snaps than his veteran teammates. Valdes-Scantling played on 32/60% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, which exceeded the counts for Cobb (24/46%), and Allison (30/58%). Valdes-Scantling also tied Cobb for the second highest target total (5), while Allison only collected one. It appears that Valdes-Scantling has captured sustained value, and he remains a worthy roster addition this week.

6. Wait… six things? Why not. Here is a bonus item concerning Larry Fitzgerald, who was targeted 10 times during Arizona's season opener, but only averaged 3.75 targets per game from Weeks 2-5. However, that average has expanded to 9.3 during Arizona's last three games, as he had collected 28 of his 53 targets for the season during that span (8, 8, 12). Fitzgerald has regained his health, and the ascension of Byron Leftwich into the offensive coordinator role should place the future Hall-Of-Famer in a position to accrue desirable numbers for patient owners who drafted him - or anyone who secured him after he was jettisoned to waiver wires during his disappointing outings.

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