Fantasy Deep Dive Week 1: Deandre Ayton

I didn't plan on doing a column during the first week of the regular season, because it's pretty hard to call someone a fantasy riser after just three days, especially with most teams playing just one game so far. But then, umm, Deandre Ayton opened his NBA career with an 18 point, 10 rebound, six assist performance, and I thought alright, let's turn to the tape.

Each week, I'll be looking at one or two NBA players who saw their fantasy stock rise and breaking down why they've been so effective and what it means going forward. I do something similar to this over on the football side of this site, but there I focus on a lot of waiver wire type guys. Here, I'm trying to just focus on someone who's been playing good basketball, regardless of how many people have him on their fantasy team.

Ready? Let's head to the tape and talk about Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton.

Deandre Ayton: Deep Dive

Some Background Information

I've had questions about Ayton since before he joined the NBA, thanks in large part to his defensive liabilities in college:

Ayton's advanced impact stats on the defensive end weren't great in college, and by "weren't great" I mean they were below average when compared to the defensive impact of all NCAA players, not just bigs. But Ayton made a major impact offensively, and when thinking about and projecting his NBA career I think I spent too much time focusing on the defensive negatives and not enough on the offensive side. When we're focusing on fantasy basketball production, Ayton has all the skills needed to be an impactful player right now, and he has the playing time available to him to ensure that he can put up numbers at a high enough volume to justify his rising draft status over the last week of the preseason.

When the RotoBaller staff did the recap of our fantasy draft, Ayton was a pretty popular topic of discussion. Dicky Fung talked about how he wanted to take him but didn't because Tobias Harris, then Trevor Crippen grappled with his decision to take Josh Richardson over Ayton (which, hey, Richardson looks pretty good, at least!), and finally Matt Sparkington actually took Ayton, and then Dale Johnson and Trevor both wrote about being bummed they didn't get Ayton. He was the most talked about guy in the recap, and that reflects how strong he's looked since the start of the preseason.

Game Tape

So, it's been established that the Deandre Ayton hype train is pulling out of the station, but is what he's done so far sustainable? He's still just a rookie after all -- was his first game performance a fluke, or is it really a suggestion that Ayton's going to wind up being the steal of the draft? I dug into the film from that performance, so let's watch some clips and talk about them.

Here's Ayton's first NBA basket:

One of Ayton's notable strengths coming out of Arizona was his post game, but there's a notion that post play is dead in the NBA. But while it's true that the modern pace and space offenses have made the three-pointer more efficient and post-ups often carry with them a lower points per possession total, effective post offense can still add plenty of dimensions to an offense. One of the bigger issues is that you need to create room for the post player, because otherwise he'll end up finding rough sledding when he's doubled, and a lot of big men lack the passing skill needed to get out of that situation.

Enter the Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson signings. A pair of former Rockets joined the Suns lineup this year, and you can see from this first play how their presence will help Ayton. Anderson actually makes the entry pass here, and having your power forward out past the three-point line draws one defender, Dorian Finney-Smith, away from the play. Trevor Ariza is in the paint when the ball is sent in to Ayton, but he immediately drifts out toward the three-point line. DeAndre Jordan is left in the middle -- if he moves in to help Luka Doncic defend Ayton, he leaves Ariza open on the perimeter. If he goes with Ariza, he leaves Doncic without help. So, he just...stands there. Ayton backs Doncic down, spins, and gets the bucket.

Here's a different facet of Ayton's offense:

Look at Ryan Anderson working on this play! Sets a pick to get Booker some space, then sets a pick in the paint that helps Ayton get away from DeAndre Jordan. While Jordan is a great interior defender, he loses much of his effectiveness when he's chasing down a jump shooter, and Ayton's mid-range game is already developed enough that he wins that matchup. That's a shot Ayton should take whenever he gets it.

Let's talk about Ayton's passing, another potentially strong part of his game:

Having a center who demands respect even as he inches toward the perimeter is great for Phoenix's spacing. On this play, Ayton gets the pass out on the right wing, drawing Jordan with him. With all five of the Suns players out of the paint, there's an easy lane opened up for Devin Booker, who gets the hand-off from Ayton and is then aided by an immediate Ayton screen that gets Finney-Smith off him. Plays like this help Ayton's assist chances -- he actually ended Wednesday's game with a 24 percent assist percentage, right in line with the numbers from the other key, non-Devin Booker cogs in this offense. There's going to be a lot of passes this year for a Suns team that had the ninth-fewest total passes last year at 292.3 per game. In the season opener, they made 329 passes. Small sample, but it looks like the ball is going to move a lot better this year.

There's plenty of other clips to watch from Ayton, but a lot of it revolves around those same three features: back to the basket moves in the post, hitting mid-range jumpers, and those hand-offs from just inside the three-point line. This offense already feels built to the strengths of its two best players, Ayton and Booker.

Wait, I lied about not showing more clips. Here's one more, just for fun:

Ayton finishing with four -- FOUR -- defenders collapsing on him is really great to watch, even if the defenders make it a pretty low potential play. As Ayton matures, teams won't be able to do this, because he'll be able to kick the ball out to one of the Suns open shooters. Once he's doing that, teams won't send as many defenders, making Ayton's post chances even more effective. It's a win-win situation for the Suns.

The Fantasy Impact

Alright, let's get down to fantasy business now. What does this all mean for Ayton?

Well, I think if you felt you were reaching for the rookie in your fantasy drafts, you can start to relax a little bit, because it might not have been a reach. Judging from one game is the ultimate "grain of salt" thing we can do, but Ayton showed a ton of things that make me feel good about him -- and angry that I don't have him in any leagues this year. He should be able to give fantasy owners the near-nightly double-doubles that you want from your starting center as well as good numbers in blocks, but that passing upside is where I'm really intrigued. If the Suns do end up near the top of the league in passes this year, Ayton's got a chance to average four or five assists per game if things go right. That's great to get from the center position. I'm a little worried about the mid-range jumpers hurting his field goal percentage if he goes cold, and we didn't see him step out to the three-point line despite taking one per game in college, but I think the rest of his production evens some things out.

Am I ready to say that I shouldn't have ranked Luka Doncic ahead of Ayton this year? No, and I still see Doncic as the better option in the long term, but Ayton looks NBA ready so far.

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