RADIO
In an effort to expand my horizons, I've gotten involved with a bit of a... strange club at work. It came up organically, one co-worker to another, over a quick in-office chat. How familiar was I with card games? Oh yeah, I knew where this was going. "Pretty good," I said, "and even when I'm not, I'm fun to lose to." The sixteen-year-old who enjoyed poker parties where he got to take his friend's cash and smile while doing it suddenly woke up, thinking that I would get to casually sit down at the table again and make some extra cash. There were more questions. Would I be interested in a small get-together? Maybe do it on weekends over some beer? "Don't ask about buy-in," I kept saying to myself. Play it cool. Play it cool. Also, have I ever played cribbage before? Ah. Ok. Wasn't expecting that.
For a few weeks now, we've been getting together, most of us learning the game of cribbage. Getting a handle of how to play a new card game, even when it hardly qualifies as "new", has been a really fun and relaxing way to pass an hour. We also enjoy taking this time to chat and swap stories, including the co-worker who teaches us all how to play, who has won some serious titles in the cribbage national circles. We asked him how often he wins, and his answer was... 50/50. Huh? He did point out that he generally does a little better than that, but considering everyone whose "good" at the game uses a similar strategy, there's not a ton of wiggle room to be that much better than your opponent. He also pointed out something smart, which was that no matter how often he plays, he probably ended up 50/50 throughout his lifetime because no matter how much better he was than everyone at the table around him (and probably in the whole city), he could only work with what he was dealt.
We're five weeks in, and the guy who gets to write this article is.... 17-13. Yes, while I told everyone to get certain players like Christian McCaffrey and stay away from Gronk, which did grant me a bit of an advantage, it doesn't help my other leagues where the real trigger for success are things like total yards gained, my two quarterbacks, or my rookie drafting abilities. If you ask most any fantasy analyst whose in 5+ leagues, you'll likely get some braggarts, but if you measure the last 50-60 leagues you were in (over a number of years, obviously), they're probably much closer to .500 than they'd like to admit. As always, my big takeaway is don't trust any one person. Trust data!
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Week 6 Pop Quiz
For everyone new to this column, I'm highlighting running backs and wide receivers for the 2 and 3 slot, and a tight end slightly outside of the normal top-eight. You won't see anyone named Gurley or Beckham Jr. here, but more of guys who are likely on your bench or in some cases on waivers, and why they might be a good fit this week specifically.
Running Back Questions
Against all odds, should you take a look at ___________ as an RB2 now?
A: Isaiah Crowell
B: Javorius Allen
C: Nyheim Hines
D:Carlos Hyde
If you're an avid reader of this column (hahahaha, kidding), you'll remember that I left Carlos Hyde here last week, mostly to fill in my column, despite the fact that he's certainly been an underrated commodity in Cleveland. Last week was the only week he didn't score, but I think that's something that he remedies vs the Los Angeles Chargers at home. The Chargers have given up at least one by-ground touchdown in their away games, and Cleveland will need to stay away from 50-yard deep balls to score against this quietly capable Chargers secondary. So even if you are worried that Hyde is a bit too touchdown dependent, this shouldn't be the week to worry.
CAUTION: Bad ___________ performance ahead.
A: Kenyan Drake
B: Austin Ekeler
C: Joe Mixon
D: David Johnson
The joy of fantasy football reddit, where everyone got together last week to confirm that Kenyan Drake would likely have a big day after a few weeks of being an utter disappointment. But no one in Miami will eat against that Bears front seven, so if you're looking to fill in some BYE week bodies with Drake, you'll have to do your best to resist, as he won't be the first back to score on the Bears in 2018.
Wide Receiver Questions
Yes, despite a bad performance you're starting _______ this week
A: Taylor Gabriel
B: Michael Crabtree
C: Quincy Enunwa
D: Amari Cooper
Remember the advice the guy gave up above, about not being cute and starting a guy against a defense that's just better than him? Well, ignore all of that when I tell you that we can't ignore Taylor Gabriel anymore. Considering he was on BYE last week, Gabriel could've ended up on waivers, but the reception leader (with only three targets less than Allen Robinson) in Chicago will likely see enough targets that he's a very decent FLEX play. If Gabriel falls into the end zone for the second straight game, he's suddenly a top-25 play going forward.
The fire is out and for _______, it's all smoke in Week 6
A: Jordy Nelson
B: Demaryius Thomas
C: Sterling Shepherd
D: Sammy Watkins
This is a real whose-who of potential disappointment, most notably trusting anything that currently lives in Northern California. But the biggest drop from weeks 5 to 6 will likely belong to Demaryius Thomas. One big week and 42-yard touchdown puts Thomas back in the top-30 of WR's, but the receiver still hasn't broken six receptions in 2018, in a Denver offense that's sputtering at best. Thomas may end up seeing the end zone again in what's likely a shootout with the Rams, but it's best not to depend on him despite likely drafting him (too) high.
Tight End Short Answer
What TE are you trading for and why?
As I noted last week, you either drafted TE well, got lucky on waivers, or are rolling your eyes and throwing out some guy. I'm actually buying Greg Olsen in leagues wherever I can, if only because the position is so thin and the once-talented TE has been riddled with injuries but likely to return to the field if (and only if) he's fully healthy. The Panthers learned that, in 2017, rushing Olsen out to the sidelines again was to their own detriment, and with McCaffrey, they no longer needed to rush out a pass catcher. Olsen will see a role if and only if he's fully healthy, and I think that could be as soon as this week. He may only cost you the equivalent of a Tyler Boyd or an Alfred Morris, but if the Olsen owner in your league has a player he loves on BYE that you can help replace, buy Olsen cheaply while you can. His connection with Cam means he's likely to return to some level of former production, and certainly is one of the best end-zone possibilities at the position.
