Statcast Hitter Analysis - Exit Velocity Risers/Fallers (Week 23)

Even if you know very little about Statcast, you know exit velocity. Even the most hardened, old-school baseball announcer has at least incorporated this term in his vernacular, if nothing else related to sabermetrics. As the second half progresses, we'll take another look at this important stat by examining the last month's worth of data to find risers and fallers for possible buy, sell, add or drop possibilities.

Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

This week, we revisit exit velocity once again to see who is taking things up a notch after the All-Star break and who is struggling to maintain their swing as the long MLB season winds down.

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Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of Aug. 27, 2018 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 PA in the second half

David Bote (3B, CHC) 93.3 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

Bote was a non-descript fill-in for the first couple of weeks after his call-up, but then made a big splash with a walk-off grand slam on August 12. He's produced 14 RBI in the last 24 games, but has also fallen on hard times in the batting average category with a .187 average in August. Now, Kris Bryant is back and pushes Bote back to a utility/pinch-hitting role again. While Bote has shown the ability to make hard contact at 39.8%, he has also shown an ability to swing and miss (13.4% Swinging Strike rate). Despite some splash moments, Bote shouldn't be a consideration in fantasy leagues unless Bryant hits the shelf again.

Ji-Man Choi (1B/OF, TB) 92.3 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

All he needed was a chance. Choi only logged 41 at-bats in the first half and spent most of his time in the minors this year, but he now he's getting semi-regular playing time with the Rays. He has shown flashes of his power with three different clubs before landing in Tampa, but hasn't logged even 120 at-bats with a single MLB club as of yet. After 30 games with Tampa, he's slashing .284/.368/.480 and is posting an adequate 0.48 BB/K ratio. He doesn't have noticeable home run totals yet, but a strong 26.4% line drive rate combined with a 42.1% Hard% show promise that he can contribute in points leagues if he keeps racking up doubles.

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) 91.6 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

Conforto was a massive disappointment throughout the first half, but he and the Mets parlayed a massively hot week into fantasy value back in mid-August. However, after stringing together consecutive three-hit games, he has just seven hits in his last 56 plate appearances. This is a case where statistics can be deceiving - his last 30 days show a big uptick in exit velocity, but most of his hard hits have turned into outs and those that have fallen for hits mostly came in a short span of time. Conforto will continue to frustrate fantasy owners until he manages to find some semblance of consistency.

Mitch Garver (C, MIN) 91.5 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

It looked as if we had a promising young catcher on our hands to fill the void left by Buster Posey, but Willians Astudillo has cut into Garver's playing time over the past week. Garver has hit well given his chances with a 40% hard-hit rate and a recent exit velocity that matches Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. He could stand to see improvement in his 8.8% HR/FB rate and turn some of his doubles into homers, but he has a strong average for the catcher position and has shown he can be productive despite a less than favorable team context. The presence of Astudillo limits him from being a regular in 12-team leagues, but he should be owned in two-catcher leagues.

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

Willson Contreras (C, CHC) 83.7 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

Contreras showed alarming signs in the first half, but put together a strong stretch in July to give hope to fantasy owners who drafted him early. Then August happened. Contreras' exit velocity is down nearly five ticks since August began and he finished with a .213 average and one homer. His poor 18% line drive rate is consistent with the last two seasons and his 29.5% Hard% is just slightly lower than his career averages. It appears that his previously unsustainable HR/FB rates have caught up with him and the house of cards has fallen. Contreras has the talent to be a power threat at catcher, but he simply hasn't shown he can make quality contact regularly enough.

Greg Bird (1B, NYY) 84.2 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

You don't need Statcast to tell you that Bird isn't worth a look in fantasy leagues, but here goes anyway. Only 19 players with at least 50 plate appearances since August 1 have a lower exit velocity than Bird, who hit .122 for the month with just two long balls. If the Yanks had a better option, he wouldn't be at first base at all these days.

Evan Longoria (3B, SF) 85.7 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

Longoria sported a solid 90 MPH exit velocity for most of the season, but it's dropped by five MPH over the past month. There are more obvious signs of decline, such as a career-low .244 average and 4.4% walk rate. In isolation, one might look at his career-best 42.3% Hard% as a beacon of hope. However, the fact he's 32 now and his team is waving the white flag on the season without its two top offensive threats should be cause for concern enough that he isn't started on any teams contending for fantasy playoffs.

Xander Bogaerts (SS, BOS) 86.6 MPH avg. exit velocity since 8/1

From Opening Day until August 1, Bogaerts was in the top-30 among batters with 100 PA or more in exit velocity at 91.8 MPH. Since then, it's dropped down to 86.8% which is still about average. The good news is his Hard Hit rate is better than ever (38.1%) and he still bats in the middle of the order for the best-hitting club in the majors. Neither his average nor power numbers have dipped whatsoever, so consider this a non-issue.

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