RADIO
Hello and welcome back to Horse For The Course! It was another great week for this column at the Travelers Championship. One of our Ponies, Bubba Watson, surged past last week's Horse Paul Casey to claim the title. It was Bubba's third win at the Travelers and continues a huge comeback season for him. This week the PGA Tour heads to Washington D.C. for the Quicken Loans National. While this tournament has been around for several years, this is just the second time that TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will be the host course. The long-time venue host Congressional Country Club gave way to TPC Potomac last year and a field that includes Tiger Woods and Rickie Fowler will take another shot at the tough layout. There is a noticeable lack of depth in this field, with Fowler and Woods arguably in a league of their own. It will be interesting to see if Tiger can pick up his first win since his comeback against a field that is noticeably short on star power. Unfortunately, we have very minimal course history to work with, so we will have to dig into our bag of tricks a bit this week, but we will not let that stop our hot streak! Let's get to it!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value. We have limited course history to draw from this week, so we will rely on a combination of history, recent form, and course fit to find our players this week.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm - Par 70 - 7,107 Yards
We go from the birdie-fest at the Travelers Championship to a course that should offer the field a much stiffer challenge. This course played tougher than any non-major venue in 2017. Kyle Stanley took home the title last year at TPC Potomac with a score of seven-under par. The 36-hole cut line was a fairly high 4-over par, so we should expect players to be forced into grind mode this week. TPC Potomac tests players with several long par-4's, but offers some slight relief on some reachable par-5's and one driveable par-4. The fairways are tight and the rough is penal. Players will be need to be accurate both off the tee and into greens.
The Horse
Rickie Fowler (DraftKings - $11,700 & FanDuel - $12,600 )
I'm probably not going out on a limb by naming Rickie Fowler this week's Horse. Fowler is by far the class of the Quicken Loans National Field. He is ranked 8th in the Official World Golf Ranking, while only two other competitors in the field, Francesco Molinari and Marc Leishman, are inside the top-20. Fowler is also the heavy odd-on favorite at all sportsbooks this week and it's not particularly close. While we only have one year of course history to evaluate, Fowler checks that box also. He competed at TPC Potomac in last year's Quicken Loans National and played well, finishing tied for third after a brilliant final-round 65.
Fowler's recent form has been steady. He has logged three consecutive top-20 finishes in his last three starts, including a roller coaster outing at the U.S. Open that resulted in a T20. As you can imagine, Fowler's stats are solid across the board, but I feel that his ability to take advantage of the Par 4's will be of particular importance this week, Fowler ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in Par 4 scoring average. He hits greens, ranking 21st in Greens in Regulation Percentage and he has the ability to save par even when he doesn't, ranking seventh in Scrambling.
The obvious drawback to Fowler this week is his substantial price tag. Fowler is the highest priced player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. We will have to make some sacrifices to get him in lineups this week. When we start DK lineups with Rickie, we are left with an average salary of about $7,600 per remaining player. Not wonderful in a field that lacks depth, but it is definitely workable in GPPs. We can hope that the lack of depth down the price ladder will lead many DFS players toward a more solid lineup build that would leave Fowler out of their lineups. Many might think that Fowler is a no-brainer pick this week, but isn't that what we are always searching for? It can often be easy to get cute and overthink things in DFS, but this week I'm riding the best player in the field.
The Ponies
Charles Howell III (DK - $8,900 & FD - $11,400 )
Let's move down from Rickie to another seemingly obvious play, Charles Howell III. CH3 is Matt Kuchar lite, always racking up solid finishes, but never taking home the trophy. Howell last won a PGA Tour event over a decade ago, but that's not stopped him from being a very serviceable player throughout his career. The 39-year-old has been rock-solid once again this season, racking up two top 10's and six top 25's in 2018. Howell has only missed one cut this calendar year, the Honda Classic way back in February.
Howell was oh-so-close to putting an end to his winless streak at TPC Potomac last year. He fired three sub-70 rounds to finish tied for the lead at seven-under par, before falling to Kyle Stanley in a playoff. Like Fowler, CH3 excels on Par 4's, ranking 31st in Par 4 scoring average. Howell plays tough courses, like TPC Potomac, well in large part due to his ability to avoid big numbers, Howell ranks 10th in Bogey Avoidance on the PGA Tour this season. He possesses a very solid overall game, ranking an impressive 35th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.
For those that are leaning in the direction of a balanced lineup construction, I recommend starting your lineups with Howell. His $8,900 DraftKings price tag is a bit higher than we are used to seeing for CH3, but it is reasonable when we look at the lack of talent in this week's field. I like Howell in both cash games and tournaments, but we must be prepared to eat the chalk, as I expect him to be an extremely popular play across the board. I'm willing to deal with the high ownership in exchange for Howell's remarkable consistency, a trait that is hard to come by in this week's player pool.
David Lingmerth (DK - $8,200 & FD - $7,900 )
I told you we would be forced to dig a bit this week! David Lingmerth is one of the few players in this week's field with some course history at TPC Potomac that extends past last year's Quicken Loans National. Lingmerth played well in the National in 2017, opening with back-to-back 65's to lead at the halfway point, before struggling over the weekend and falling into a T5. In addition to his excellent play at last year's PGA event, Lingmerth won the 2012 Web.com event that was held at TPC Potomac. It's fair to say that the Swede is comfortable with the layout.
A dive into Lingmerth's stats returns some pretty ugly results. However, I do like that he sits 17th in Driving Accuracy, a skill that will be crucial this week. He has mostly struggled in 2018, but has shown signs of life over the past month, finishing T29 at the Memorial and logging a T19 at last week's Travelers on the strength of a final-round 66. Lingmerth is a streaky player that can get hot seemingly out of nowhere. He won the 2015 Memorial and lost in playoffs at various tournaments in both 2016 and 2017.
The goal in PGA DFS is to identify players before they get hot. Lingmerth fits squarely in that category this week and I believe he is a prime candidate to surprise at TPC Potomac. That belief is reinforced by recent signs that he is finding his game and the successful results he has logged at this week's course. His $8,200 DraftKings price tag makes me slightly sick to my stomach, but we have to follow our instincts and be willing to pull the trigger on players we like in fields that lack tons of talent. For those that play on FanDuel, Lingmerth is an absolute steal at $7,900 and should be fired up in all formats.
Peter Malnati (DK - $7,000 & FD - $8,100)
I'm continuing tradition this week with another under-the-radar value play. I have a soft spot for Peter Malnati, one of the truly good guys on the PGA Tour. For those of you that have ever seen TV coverage of Malnati, you can see what I'm talking about. Like me, Malnati went to a small high school in rural East Tennessee and calls Knoxville home. (Standing invitation for dinner on me in K-Town Peter!) With all that being said, you don't make Horse For The Course for strictly sentimental reasons. He logged a solid T38 at TPC Potomac last year and he plays well on tough golf courses. Malnati has a PGA Tour win to his credit and is a legitimate contrarian option this week.
Malnati is another streaky player that seems to run hot and cold. A look at his game log shows stretches of missed cuts, followed by strings of solid play. I believe that Malnati is finding his form in the month of June. He has performed well over his last two tournaments, logging a T30 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic and a T26 at last week's Travelers Championship. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Malnati's recent play is the scores he has been able to post. Over his last eight rounds, six have been sub-70 scores, including a 64 last week.
As is customary with my value pick, I'm specifying Malnati as a GPP-only play. He is not a cash game or single lineup play, but is a perfect contrarian option for those multi-entering large-field GPPs. His $7,000 DK price tag offers the salary cap relief we need to deploy Rickie Fowler. We are searching for a made cut at this price and Malnati is capable of playing past Friday. We even have an outside shot at a sneaky top-25 in this field. The masses will flock to Adam Hadwin in this price range, while we can pivot to an under-the radar play that should have ownership at 5% or less.
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