Alex Bregman - Will He Deliver on His Potential?

Since being drafted second overall in the 2015 June Amateur Draft, much has been expected of Houston third baseman Alex Bregman. Shooting through the minors in only a year and change, Bregman made an instant impact with a 1.1 WAR in 49 games in 2016.

It appeared that the Astros had their corner of the future, and while even some slows starts have not changed this reality in real baseball, fantasy owners might be beginning to fret. With an average draft position of 71 in drafts after February 1, Bregman was apparently expected to anchor line-ups. So far this year? .263 AVG with only one bomb for a total of 0.1 WAR. Why should owners not be worried about their investment and expect a bounce back soon? Two words: track record.

In March and April of last year, Bregman skidded out of the gates with a 62 tOPS+, hit .250 with no home runs. In May? The tOPS+ surged back too close to league average at 99 complimented by six HR, 15 runs, and 14 RBI. In total, the second half of the 2017 season saw Bregman post a 117 tOPS+. While a short career, the pattern is there to hint at Bregman being one of those hitters that get written up in the Rotoballer “slow starters” columns for a few years. The sophomore slump can also be a concern for owners who are seeing the same pattern this year. No fret, Bregman is well on his way to changing that label as well.

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A Changing Batting Eye

One of the main limitations of Bregman’s game in 2016/2017 was his happy swing rate. Lots of swings at lots of pitchers meant a watering down of overall performance. In 2016 Bregman swung at 46.6% of pitches he saw. Breaking this down a bit, Bregman was happy to chase outside the zone with a 27.2 O-Swing%. Swinging itself is not bad, but with a low 59.8 O-Contact% there are lots of misses to factor into the profile. In 2017 the swings outside the zone dropped all the way to 25.8%, and this year, the trend continues. Bregman is only swinging 21% of the time at pitches outside the zone. His O-Contact% has surged to 80.4%. All signs point to a more selective hitter with an increasing batter’s eye.

The other nice factor in Bregman’s approach this year has been an increase in walks. In his short career, Bregman walked close to 9% of his plate appearances. This year? That is up to 12.4% in the young season. With a K% that is staying mostly the same as well, the plate discipline is improving. Even just a few point drop in chases has resulted in a dramatic increase in walks. Back to the Ks for a second. Career average for Bregman has been 18.1%. The production is relatively suitable for the position, and if there were a bit more power would fit fine with owner’s projections. That makes this year all the more valuable. So far in 2018, Bregman is striking out in 12.4% of his plate appearances, or an equal 1:1 K: BB line this season. Better swings, better eye, and more walks mean that whatever “slump” Bregman is it will not last long.

Finally, look at the categories that count for fantasy owners. K and BB rates are nice for context but do not directly help a team in a non-points league. So far this season Bregman has posted a .354 OPB, which taking into account the increased batting eye seems to be a reasonable expectation to remain steady. Ironically, this is right in line with career average, meaning that owners should perhaps expect this to increase due to the BB% and O-Swing% information from above. The concerning number is Bregman’s SLG which is over 100 points lower than the end of 2017 figure. His power is well down compared to his pace from last year, but a 3.1 FB/HR% should only go up. When all the other numbers (LD%, GB%, FB%, etc.) are similar or the same from last season owners should be happy to stay the course. The only metric that does look different is a slight increase in Med% from 49% to 51.8% which seems to have come at the expense of a four-point drop in Hard%. Again, at this point, the differences are splitting hairs, and overall the profile looks much the same. A slight increase in gappers connected with a better eye and this profile is still valuable. Bregman seems to play better in OBP leagues when compared to AVG, but will not tank your team in either.

Outlook

So then the outlook for the rest of the year: status quo. At his current pace, Bregman will hit somewhere in the region of 8-10 HR, score 55-60 R, and drive in 60+ RBI. Luckily these are right in line his ZIPS and Steamer projections before the year. Back to the slow start. Since April 19, Bregman has had multiple hits in five of seven games with four doubles.

If anything the changes in his profile has limited his ceiling but secured his floor as a good contact hitter with run production upside. He will chase less, but also have less streaky power that owners like.

The final question then is should Bregman be viewed as the 4th-6th rounder that he is being drafted as? Probably not since the power profile is still relatively weak compared to the depth at the position, but, at the same time, even with some drops in the outputs Bregman looks as solid a pick for reliable/steady production. Will he ever hit 30 HR? No that does not seem to be in this profile. Will he drive in and score 70+ in a season? That seems to be a good bet with the changed batting profile and the expected gains with experience in the league.  How much of a draft drop should owners factor into draft plans?  Perhaps a round or two.  The more significant comment does not reach and think there is value with a 3rd round pick on this profile like others in leagues will.

Bregman is an offensive shortstop playing at third, which is precisely in line with the player that Houston trots put every day. Look at it this way, if Correa were not playing at SS, Bregman would be a top six player at the position. Instead, he is a top-10 3B. There is still value to playing Bregman on a fantasy roster.

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